Of qualified second basemen in the month of September, San Francisco’s Thairo Estrada is tied for fourth in WAR, and is sporting a quality .317/.411/.508 slash line with three home runs, 11 runs scored, nine RBI, and three stolen bases. He has truly been a fantasy star this season, as he has hit .268 with 14 home runs and 19 stolen bases across 129 games with the team. Sure, his overall stat line may not be the best amongst all Major League Baseball players, but considering that he was being drafted outside of the top 700 in preseason fantasy baseball drafts, this is quite the return on investment. Estrada wasn’t overly prolific in the minors, but he showcases a small bit of pop, ability to hit for average, and good speed, which is largely what we’ve seen at the big league level, except he has shown an improved power tool compared to his time in the minors. Estrada must be owned in all formats at this point in time, so if he’s not, make him a priority pickup off the waiver wire, but let’s talk about his performance this year, and then touch on his fantasy value for the 2023 Major League Baseball season.

 

After a down August, Estrada has bounced back here in September, as mentioned in the opening sentence of this article. Before we talk about why things have gone right for him in September, I want to focus on what went wrong in some of his worst months of the year, which were April, June, and August. Look at the graph below, and give it a good glance over before continuing on.

In the beginning of the year, his contact rate was down, and he was leaving the zone a bit more. In May, he was excellent, and if you eyeball where that would be on the chart, he showed improved plate discipline. Fast forward to June-ish on the chart above, and what do you see? A rise in strikeout rate that correlates with more swingers out of the zone and a diminished contact rate. In August, you see the same thing again, but this time with a massive dip in his wOBA, which falls in line with some stark changes in what I consider to be rather important plate discipline metrics.

 

Estrada has the makings of a guy that can keep the strikeouts in check over the course of a whole season. I harped on that rate increasing at various months of the season, but his worst strikeout rate in a single month was just 18.1 percent in July, and his overall mark sits at just 16.4 percent. He’s not going to be a big time strikeout guy, and he should be able to keep that strikeout rate right around the 16-19 percent range for years to come. When you look at his Statcast metrics, a 79th percentile strikeout rate may not fall perfectly in line with a 29th percentile chase rate, but he does have an 80th percentile whiff rate, so while he may leave the zone more than one would like, he has a knack for putting bat on ball

When it comes to relying on Estrada the rest of the fantasy season, here are two key numbers you need to know: .281 and .262.

Why are those numbers significant, because it surely isn’t that those numbers are game-changers by any means. Those numbers are Estrada’s batting averages against lefties and righties respectively. The Giants, who love to utilize platoon splits when setting their lineups, allow Estrada to start against both. He will rarely come out of the lineup down the stretch, health willing, and when playing for a team like the Giants, that’s key for at-bats and production down the stretch.

I mentioned it earlier, and Estrada needs to be owned down the stretch of the fantasy baseball season. He’s likely owned in most formats, but if you play in a shallower league, Estrada’s power and speed, as well as being on a hot streak at the moment, make him a must-own player. However, what’s his outlook for 2023 look like?

In a broad generalization, what we have seen from is largely what we’ve seen in the minors, but he’s done it just a little bit better, outside of batting average maybe. However, one could argue that his .297 BABIP should be a bit higher, so maybe there’s some more luck in store for him next year, but he’s outproducing most, if not all, of his expected stats, so let’s call it a wash between those two. He’s going to be an intriguing fantasy baseball asset in 2023, because I don’t think many are going to believe in him coming close to a repeat of his 2022 season. However, he has no significant splits, he can hit for a bit of power, and he’s been rather successful on the base paths. 

Estrada is a very good player in reality, and even if he never transcends to superstar status, the Giants should view him as a key piece of the puzzle moving forward. He’ll turn 27 in February, and as long as his price point doesn’t get overinflated next season, I’ll be drafting him as my second baseman with the hopes of his continual development, and gaining membership into the 15/25 club in 2023.

 

Statistical Credits:

  • Fangraphs.com
  • Baseballsavant.mlb.com


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