Below are stacks to consider for Friday’s full, 15-game slate.
Seattle Mariners
We’ll start with the team that has the highest expected run total of the evening in Vegas, and we’ll work our way from most to least chalky. As of this writing the Mariners were edging out the Brewers and Nationals for the highest expected run total of the night.
It’s not tough to figure out why they’re expected to score a lot of runs tonight as they’re facing James Shields. You don’t need numbers to know Shields is bad, but here are some numbers anyway. He has an xFIP over 6.00 in seven starts this season, and he has an ERA well over 7.00 in his last four starts. Lefties have destroyed him this season with 82 lefties faced combining for a .430 wOBA.
The M’s are tied for the sixth best park-adjusted offense against right-handers this season, and they’re getting a positive park shift on the road in Chicago. Their best lefties against right-handed pitching this season have been Robinson Cano and Ben Gamel who have wRC+ marks of 131 and 124 vs. RHP, respectively. Lefty Kyle Seager also has above average numbers against righties. Seattle also has several righties who have been well above average without the platoon advantage this year, Jean Segura, Mitch Haniger and Nelson Cruz. Feel free to use them as necessary to supplement Seattle’s left-handed bats.
Washington Nationals
As mentioned, the Mariners are just barely edging out the Nats for the highest expected total of the night, and it might as well be a tie. It’s also not difficult to see why the Nats are in a good spot tonight. They’ll face Tim Adleman who has an xFIP right at 5.00 for the season, and his ERA and xFIP in his last six starts before the Break were both over 5.00.
Like Seattle, Washington hits right-handed pitching well as they rank fourth in wRC+ vs. RHP this season. Bryce Harper and Daniel Murphy are the obvious names against a right-handed starter, but Ryan Zimmerman and Anthony Rendon also have well above average numbers without the platoon advantage this season. And if Adam Lind were to be in the lineup for some reason, he’s always a good value bat when he makes it into the lineup against a right-handed starter.
It should go without saying that these chalkier teams are not the best options for team-heavy stacks in large GPPs. But don’t shy away from using a couple hitters from these teams in smaller GPPs (think 400-800 entrants), and it’s a good idea to use mini-stacks from these teams in cash games.
Chicago Cubs
We’re now officially in the portion of the stacks article where we talk about picking on teams with bad bullpens. Tonight the Cubs get the O’s whose bullpen ranks seventh in xFIP this season, and they’ve only been getting worse as the season has worn on as the Baltimore pen ranked fifth in xFIP in the last 30 days before the Break. The biggest problem is simply that they’ve been overworked with the third highest number of innings pitched by any bullpen. But Buck Showalter has had little choice but to go to his pen often as their rotation has the second worst ERA in the league at a whopping 5.75.
Tonight’s starter, Kevin Gausman, has certainly contributed to the woes of the Baltimore rotation with an ERA of 5.85 on the season. His xFIP for the year is in the high fours, but to his credit he was a bit better in the month leading up to the Break with an xFIP in the low fours (though his ERA in that stretch was still 5.81).
The Cubs have been much better against left-handed pitchers than right-handers this season, but their studs are still posting solid numbers against righties this season. Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant have been 20-30 percent better than average against righties, as has newcomer Ian Happ. That trio hit 2-3-4 in the last two games prior to the Break, so they make for a good stack option. Jon Jay also has above average numbers against righties and led off in the last game before the Break. Were he to do so again, he’d be a good option to include in a Cubs stack.
Arizona Diamondbacks
We’re sticking with the bad bullpen angle for one more team here with the D-Backs facing a Braves team whose bullpen has the sixth worst xFIP for the season and the fourth worst xFIP in the last 30 days. They’ll also be running out R.A. Dickey to start, and Dickey has an xFIP just north of 5.00 on the season.
The D-Backs always get some level of a negative park shift on the road unless they’re headed to Colorado, but the conditions in Atlanta tonight should lessen the blow. It will be fairly warm with a forecasted game-time temp of 85 degrees, and it will be muggy with a dewpoint in the 70’s. Heat and humidity are hitter-friendly conditions. It should also be noted wind will be negligible and blowing across the field, which doesn’t seem hitter-friendly on its face. But there is some evidence that knuckleballers like Dickey fare better with the wind blowing out, which won’t be the case tonight.
Keep in mind that the knuckleball keeps Dickey pretty splits-neutral. For his career, his wOBA allowed to lefties is .320 compared to .322 against righties. This season, righties have been better than lefties against Dickey. You’ll want to build a D-Backs stack around their best hitters, Paul Goldschmidt and Jake Lamb, but don’t be beholden to lefties with the platoon advantage when filling out a stack around that duo.
Tampa Bay Rays
To recap, the Mariners and Nationals are in a virtual tie for the highest expected total of the night, and the Cubs and D-Backs have the sixth and eighth highest excepted totals, respectively. That makes the Rays the least chalky option discussed here today with the 16th highest expected run total. It was mentioned above that the Nats and Mariners rank fourth and sixth in park-adjusted offense against right-handed pitching this season, but the Rays have both beat with the third best wRC+ vs. RHP.
Tonight they’ll face right-hander Ricky Nolasco who has an ERA just over 5.00 both for the season and in his six most recent starts with xFIPs in the high fours in both time frames. Nolasco is also stack-friendly because he has struggled against hitters from both sides of the plate. Lefties with the platoon advantage have an above average wOBA of .345 against Nolasco this year, but right-handers have fared even better with a wOBA of .383.
The Rays have four hitters with at least 100 PA against righties this season with a wRC+ of 136 or better: Logan Morrison (152), Steven Souza Jr. (148), Corey Dickerson (142), and Mallex Smith (136). Kevin Kiermaier and Evan Longoria also have above average numbers against righties, so the Rays present a deep lineup that should give you plenty of flexibility when filling out a team-heavy stack.