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PATEINCE, EXAMPLE #1,312

Corey Kluber is a total disaster and he’s droppable, or at the very least you should look hard at your waiver-wire if you own Kluber. I’ve literally gotten some form of that statement about 96 times in the last 24 hours. My response – patience. It’s not cause I’m saying ‘he started slowly last year and look how good he ended up.’ It’s not cause I’m saying ‘he will be as good as he was last year, you just watch.’ What I’m saying is the following. I know he is 0-5 with a 5.04 ERA, but he might be pitching as well as any hurler possible could with those surface numbers. Here’s what I’m talking about.

Kluber has a 9.27 K/9 mark. That is elite.
Kluber has a 2.22 BB/9 mark. That’s really impressive.
Kluber has a 4.18 K/BB ratio. His career mark is 4.40 and it’s elite.

Not much change there.

Kluber has a 0.81 HR/9 mark. His career mark is 0.76.

Kluber has a 23.4 line drive rate. His career mark is 23.3.

Kluber has a 1.72 GB/FB. His career mark is 1.55.

Don’t know about you, but that’s a whole lot of “normal” for Kluber, ain’t it?

So what’s the issue? A few things.

Despite all that “normal” Kluber is allowing a .364 BABIP. His mark last season was .316 and from 2011-14 the mark was .326. Some regression, given his overall performance, seems reasonable to expect.

Kluber has a mere 62.3 percent left on base percentage. Come on, that’s the 12th worst mark in baseball in the early going. For more context, my favorite word after patience, there was only one pitcher in baseball who threw at least 162 innings that had a LOB percentage mark below 62.3 percent in 2014 (Clay Buchholz at 62.1). Moreover, Buchholz was the only hurler in baseball who qualified for the ERA title and had a mark under 65.5 percent. It will improve for Kluber. By the way, from 2011-14 the number was 73.8 percent for Kluber.

Finally, lefties are crushing him right now (.333/.414/.466) with a 3.66 BB/9 mark. Those levels are above what we are used to seeing from Kluber. For his career here are the lefty marks: .273/.332/.380 with a 2.83 BB/9 mark.

Kluber won’t be as good as he was last year, that was never reasonable to expect, but if you’re running from him right now you’re making a mistake – even given that 0-5 record and 5.04 ERA.

YOU HAVE TO BE KIDDING ME

Kyle Blanks. Really folks? Why on earth am I getting questions about Kyle Blanks? Does history mean nothing to anybody?

Before I even get to the analysis, let’s look at a list of injuries for Blanks (thanks to Baseball Prospectus).

Date OnDate OffTransactionDaysGamesSideBody PartInjurySeveritySurgery DateReaggravation
6/23/2014-60-DL--LeftLower LegStrainCalf - Partial Tear- 
6/23/2014-DTD--LeftFootContusionHBP- 
6/21/20146/22/2014DTD11LeftLower LegTightnessCalf- 
9/26/20139/30/2013DTD44LeftLower LegTendonitisAchilles Tendonitis--
9/19/20139/19/2013DTD00-General MedicalIllness --
7/12/20138/31/201315-DL5041LeftLower LegInflammationAchilles Tendonitis--
7/4/20137/5/2013DTD11LeftFootSorenessHeel--
4/22/20134/26/2013DTD43-FaceLacerationRunning Into Wall--
4/14/201210/4/201260-DL173154LeftShoulderSurgeryLabrum4/24/2012-
3/19/20123/29/2012Camp100LeftShoulderImpingement --
3/11/20123/14/2012Camp30LeftKneeSoreness --
9/21/20119/23/2011DTD21RightThighStrainQuadriceps--
3/22/20114/26/201115-DL3523RightElbowRecovery From SurgeryTommy John Surgery7/30/2010 
5/18/201010/4/201060-DL139124RightElbowSurgeryTommy John Surgery7/30/2010 
8/29/200910/5/200915-DL3732RightFootStrainPartial Tear Plantar Fascia- 
8/24/20098/27/2009DTD32RightFootInflammationPlantar Fascia- 
8/22/20098/22/2009DTD00RightFootStrainHeel- 
7/22/20069/8/2006Minors480LeftAnkleInfection --

He is always hurt. Here are the games played for Blanks.

2010: 44 games

2011: 134 games

2012: 4 games

2013: 100 games

2014: 60 games

Let me repeat… he is ALWAYS hurt.

Now on to the performance.

Blanks has 782 big league at-bats over seven years. Prior to this season, injuries and poor performance at the big league level have allowed him to accrue 200 at-bats once in six years (read that again). Note that Blanks has a 29.5 percent K-rate as a pro which is awful (per 500 at-bats that’s 167 strikeouts). His contract rate of 69.8 percent is just awful as is his 14.5 percent swinging strike percentage. He also can’t hit righties that well (.234/.311/.405).

You can add Blanks if you have a dead roster spot. Go for it. Know two things. (1) He will be hurt, sometime soon. (2) His performance will fall off a cliff from where it currently is. Simple as that.

INJURIES

Archie Bradley (head/face) has been throwing and the expectation is that he will return to the D’backs rotation May 16th against the sad-sack Phillies. Given the matchup you should feel fairly confident starting the big righty even coming back from that scary batted ball off his noggin’. Through four starts Bradley has had one issue with the walks (4.95 per nine), but other than that there’s not much to pick on with the rookie.

Chris Capuano (quadriceps) is looking to make one more minor league start before he returns to the Yankees’ rotation. “We’ll deal with that when I have an option,” GM Brian Cashman said. “I know when I signed him, I signed him to be a part of our rotation. That was the intent.” Adam Warren pitches tonight and unless he dominates he will likely lose his spot since Chase Whitley has performed better. None of them is anything other than an AL-only option.

Jake McGee (elbow) is set to make three more minor league appearances before he returns to the Rays bullpen. Thus far he’s looked sharp having not allowed a hit in three outings thus far. Brad Boxberger hasn’t had many missteps thus far so I’m thinking it might be a while before we see McGee in the 9th inning for the Rays.

Alex Rios is taking dry swings as he works his way back from a broken left hand. He’s likely a couple of weeks away, but you might want to make sure he isn’t on the waiver-wire in your league given his skills and how well the Royals offense has looked early on.

David Wright had another MRI which was clean, but his lower back is paining him and as a result he has been shut down. He’s on the DL with a hamstring issue, but as someone who has lower back pain of his own making sure your hamstrings are loose and in good shape is key or they will put that stress on your lower back. It doesn’t sound like this is a long-term setback, but a setback it is nonetheless.

Finally, do yourself a favor and read this article by Todd Zola. It’s totally worth five minutes of your time.

 

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday at 7 PM EDT on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 7 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).