2016 MLB Draft Guide: Which Splits Matter

Many in the fantasy game seem to think that splits only matter if you play DFS. Nonsense. Splits are meaningful in all fantasy leagues. That is, if you are in a “real” league, one that allows you to change lineups on a daily basis and not one of those soft leagues where you only set your lineup once a week (sense some anger from me in this regard? I hate soft people. Unless they are women who, if soft in all the right places, make me smile wide). This piece will give you a rundown of which splits matter, which don’t, and which men have such vibrant splits that they must be noted.

A NOTE ON TRENDS…

I know trends matter, not saying they don’t, but don’t be a slave to them. By that I mean, you should pay attention to seven-day streaks etc., but don’t take them as gospel. Sample size matters, and a handful of games isn’t enough to completely rely upon.

SPLITS THAT DON’T MATTER

Historical first and second half splits don’t really matter. The hell you say? Here’s why my statement should ring true.

1 – First/second half splits are completely arbitrary data points to begin and end a discussion. What is different on July 5^th from July 15^th? The answer is nothing.

2 – What if a player was hurt in one half but healthy in the other? Of course his numbers would be better/worse.

3 – What if the player’s team played more games at home or on the road in one year or the next? What if that player is better at home or on the road?

4 – The most obvious for last -- splits can be completely misleading. Example:

Player A has played four years. That gives him eight half-seasons to discuss. Here are his home run totals for each season per half:

First half: 10, 8, 7, 10 = 35 total

Second half: 13, 4, 13, 5 = 35 total

In this instance he is the same, right? There are 35 homers in each half. However, which guy is more consistent? First half guy, of course. Is he really the same half-to-half or not?

Another example. Assuming the exact same at-bat total, 250 for each half (go with me)…

First half: .285, .295, .325, .295 = average of .300

Second half: .280, .375, .280, .280 = average of .304.

According to the overall numbers this guy is a “second half hitter.” In truth, every one of his first half efforts was better than all but one of his second half.

Simply put, the splits here can be misleading.

HOME/AWAY

Some will suggest that these splits matter but not as much as you would think. Of course, if you play your home games in Colorado or Arizona it matters a lot (make sure to check out our Why Ballparks Matter article). But overall, I think they do matter. I look at them when analyzing players. I think it would be foolish to ignore it. Since I’m in charge here and I like to toot my own horn a lot, I’m gonna say the following. (1) Home/Away splits matter. (2) You should pay attention to them. With that, here are some of the 2015 splits that you need to know about.

One caveat -- just with the breakdown of first/second half splits, not all home/away splits are equal. Players get traded a lot. Players might be facing better or worse pitchers which impact the performance of a player at home or away. The player might have had a one-off – i.e. maybe that player is a longtime producer at home and not on the road who just had an upside effort in 2015. This is one data point. Others are needed to paint the entire picture.

• Minimum 200 plate appearances.

HOME – HITTERS
 

Adam LaRoche had a .541 OPS at home, a good place to hit too.

Brandon Moss had a mere .597 OPS combined at his two homes in 2015.

Starlin Castro didn’t hit at all in Wrigley Field (.616).

Steven Souza has a nice power/speed combo, but he didn’t hit in the dome (.667).

Victor Martinez went from near MVP to horrible at home (.675) in one year.

Kyle Seager was his normal self, overall, but not when hitting at home (.678).

Carlos Gomez was hurt late in the year but he was just flat-out bad at home for both teams he played for in 2015 (.680).

Joc Pederson powered a ton of big flies but he was not only abysmal in the second half but also at home (.689).

What happened to you, Joe Mauer (.696)?

AWAY HITTERS

Billy Hamilton cannot hit. How many times have I told you that? Check out his league worst .506 OPS on the road.

Pablo Sandoval stunk. Hard. Everywhere. Especially on the road (.573).

Ian Desmond just didn’t get it done. In any measure. His .581 OPS on the road was the 11^th worst in baseball.

Alex Rios was at one time an impressive hitter. Not so much anymore. He had a .614 OPS on the road.

Brett Gardner had a solid season, though his .650 OPS on the road was rather poor. OK, it was terrible.

Victor Martinez didn’t hit on the road either (.659).

Brian McCann had a mere .372 SLG which led to a pathetic .663 OPS.

Kole Calhoun was slightly better (.670) than Evan Gattis (.674). Yippee.

Jason Kipnis had an impressive season but not at all when he was away from Progressive Field as evinced by his .684 OPS on the road.

• Minimum 50 innings pitched.
• wOBA is weighted on-base average, and it measures a hitters/pitchers overall offensive/pitching value.

HOME – PITCHERS

Ian Kennedy’s .366 wOBA at home was the worst in baseball at home.

Jeremy Guthrie wasn’t much better at .357.

Jeff Samardzija was the fourth-worst in the game (.351). How does an arm like that struggle so badly?

Trevor Bauer was seventh from the bottom with his .345 mark, just slightly worse than the No. 8 man James Shields (.341). Carlos Carrasco, an elite arm, was ninth-worst at .338.

AWAY – PITCHERS

Chris Rusin was battered mercilessly on the road at .390, the worst in the game.

Julio Teheran was at .380, which was “good” enough for third-worst in the game.

Hector Santiago had a good year overall, but he was 14^th worst at .350.

Nathan Eovaldi had a 14-3 record with massive heat as his calling card. He was also 18^th worst at .345.

Jordan Zimmermann was 20^th worst at .343.

LEFTY/RIGHTY

These splits are a huge key for deciding which batters to go with on a daily basis. It’s easy enough to say start righties against left-handed pitchers and lefties versus right-handers, but it’s also not as simple as that.

• Minimum 200 plate appearances.

HITTERS VS. LEFTIES

• Minimum 100 plate appearances.

Ryan Howard – disaster and not even the word disaster is fair. Unmitigated disaster? Abysmal? Atrocious? None tells the true story. Howard had a .418 OPS. Seriously, how is that possible?

Pablo Sandoval has a .452 SLG for his career. His 2015 OPS against lefties was .465.

Gregory Polanco has not yet proven he can hit lefties (.528).

Carlos Gonzalez had a remarkable season, but not when lefties were on the bump: .530 OPS.

Justin Upton is ultra-consistent from season to season. He was yet again extremely productive but it was all built on home success. His .558 OPS on the road was embarrassing. That was the same mark as Curtis Granderson for the Mets.

Salvador Perez had a great postseason, but he didn’t hit on the road in the regular season (.560).

Yadier Molina used to be a batting star. He’s not at this point of his career, especially on the road (.577).

HITTERS VS. RIGHTIES

• Minimum 200 plate appearances.

Billy Hamilton was only the fifth worst in baseball against righties (.532).

Jean Segura struggled all year long. His .594 OPS at home was pathetic.

There is Victor Martinez again (.616).

Ian Desmond couldn’t get anything going all year long against righties (.653).

Jacoby Ellsbury used to be a star (.669).

Ryan Zimmerman needs to stay healthy. He never seems to be. His OPS was .672.

• Minimum 50 innings pitched.
   

PITCHERS VS. LEFTIES

Dallas Keuchel was flat out amazing. He and Jake Arrieta were eons better than everyone else.

Kyle Kendrick, Jeremy Guthrie and Rubby de la Rosa were all over .400 in wOBA. Oh the humanity.

Andrew Cashner has a huge arm but didn’t get it done in any appreciable way. He had a .383 wOBA versus lefties, one spot ahead of teammate James Shields (.380).

Jeff Samardzija came in 20^th at .357, one point worse than Ian Kennedy’s .356 (another Padre).

Rick Porcello. Not really sure how people are still such big fans of him (.351).

PITCHERS VS. RIGHTIES

Drew Hutchison couldn’t pitch on the road, or against righties. His .391 was a league-worst.

CC Sabathia faced his demons off the field and on it, righties smashed him with a .370 wOBA, eighth-worst in the game.

Phil Hughes went up in flames after a strong 2014. His wOBA was .368 in this situation.

Carlos Rodon has walk issues and he’s also in need of some work against righties (.350).

Wei-Yin Chen didn’t get righties out as much as he would have liked (.346).

So that’s a quick review of the splits you need to know. Splits aren’t the whole story, but they should be numbers that you look toward when setting your lineup in 2016.