Although Gary Sánchez rebounded blasting 34 home runs in 2019, his average failed to approach the .278 level from his breakout campaign in 2017. Sanchez led all major league catchers in home runs becoming the fourth player at his position to hit at least 30 home runs in multiple seasons before his Age-26 season joining Johnny Bench (four), Mike Piazza and Rudy York (twice). During a season highlighting home runs with high strikeout rates, Sanchez blended well with the crowd. His strikeout percentage grew to 26-percent and he owned a higher isolated power (.293) than batting average on balls in play (.244).

Soft tissue injuries cost Sanchez time again last year with another calf strain and groin strain costing him two trips to the injured list. Sanchez appeared in 106 games with 62 runs, 77 RBI and a .232/.316/.525 slash line. His robust 26.4-percent home run per fly ball rate fueled his power. According to Statcast, Sanchez ranked fifth in the majors with a barrel per batted ball event of 19.1-percent while recording 52 in only 272 events. Sanchez owned a 91 MPH average exit velocity with a launch angle of 19.1 degrees as well.

His growth in launch angle to combat shifts potentially affected his batting average, but it remains to be seen. It can occur as a hitter adjusts his swing. Last year, Sanchez cut his ground ball rate to 32.4-percent compared to rates of almost 43-percent in each of the two prior seasons while increasing his fly ball percent by over six points. Here’s his spray chart from last season:

Expected statistics do not necessarily carry over, but due to his ability to generate barrels, Sanchez possibly deserved better. Sanchez finished with a .247 expected batting average, .552 expected slugging and .363 expected weighted on-base average (17 points above his actual). Knowing how well Sanchez barrels baseballs, take note of his expected weighted on-base average on contact (.474) sits 100 points over the league average. His zone profile provides hope for average and on-base growth in 2020:

However, if Sanchez migrates back towards a higher batting average his discipline needs some refinement. Entering his Age-27 season, within his power peak, time will be running out. Tossing 2018 out due to the sample size and a myriad of injury issues, lets focus on how Sanchez rated in plate metrics last year compared to his 2017 numbers from Statcast:

  • Zone Swing Percentage: 66.1 in 2017, 58.9 last year, 62.5 career
  • Zone Contact Percentage: 80.6 in 2017, 78.9 last year, 80.6 career
  • Swing Percentage: 47.9 in 2017, 44 last year, 45.3 career
  • Whiff Percentage: 28.4 in 2017, 32.3 last year, 30.1 career

Sanchez will never be a highly rated player in terms of discipline. But, with some positive regression to the mean, his average would be more palatable for fantasy owners to accompany his massive advantage at catcher due to home run potential. The biggest key will be commanding the strike zone and cashing in on fastballs. Using the Statcast swing-and-take charts, note how Sanchez slipped in production within the strike zone but still generated 34 home runs:

Swing and Take Chart 2017

Swing and Take Chart 2019

Sometimes predicting a player to take a major step forward makes for fantasy fallacy. Suggesting Gary Sánchez could take steps to get back even half of his gains displayed in 2017 would not be out of the realm of possibilities. There will be some streakiness to his game due to his approach but he’s not inept in terms of making contact. In fact, when he does, it usually results in a hard-hit ball in over 40-percent of his data. Sanchez also owns the second-highest maximum exit velocity event from last year of 118.3 MPH. Hitting in the heart of a loaded, and deep Yankees lineup insulates his counting statistics as well separating him from his peers in catcher tiers.

It’s almost remarkable perusing his projection sets from three sites with such similar results:

  • 2020 Steamer Projection - 107 games, 404 at-bats, 66 runs, 31 home runs, 78 RBI, stolen base; .242/.324/.516
  • 2020 ATC Projection - 115 games, 434 at-bats, 68 runs, 32 home runs, 81 RBI; .238/.322/.504
  • 2020 ZiPS Projection - 414 at-bats, 67 runs, 32 home runs, 93 RBI; .244/.323/.524

ZiPS represents the best-case scenario for Sanchez without suggesting a repeat of last year’s home run totals. Could Gary Sánchez hit 40 home runs as a catcher? Absolutely. Will he? Well, looking at his games played totals, a lineup with so many bats capable of logging at-bats at designated hitter, it’s tough to predict. However, in a 90th-percentile projection, Sanchez proves capable of hitting 35-to-38 home runs with a similar environment of baseballs from 2019 if he appears in 115 contests. Do not pay for more than the .244 average but profit if he rebounds to the .250 range. Discounting a catcher entering his power peak with massive batted ball data, but room-for-improvement plate discipline seems risky.

Use his projections as a baseline but there’s a chance Gary Sánchez will meet or exceed them. Upside suggests 38 home runs with 95 RBI even in only 115 games, which at catcher represents a reach worth making in 2020.

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Statistical Credits:

BaseballSavant.com

Fangraphs.com

Steamerprojections.com

ATC courtesy of Ariel Cohen

ZiPS courtesy of Dan Szymborski