After missing the majority of the 2019 season, Ben Roethlisberger threw for 3,803 yards with a 33:10 TD/INT ratio in 15 games for the Pittsburgh Steelers last year. After a cupcake start to the season, the Steelers were humbled a bit, as they stumbled themselves into the playoffs, and had an early exit after a 48-37 loss to the Cleveland Browns. In that game, Roethlisberger threw for 501 yards with four touchdowns and four interceptions. On a per-game basis, it was just the second time in career he averaged more than 40 pass attempts per game, yet his 253.5 yards per game was his lowest mark since 2012 (excluding injury shortened 2019). The veteran quarterback isn’t getting any younger, but is there enough juice left in that right arm of his for another back-end QB1 or high-end QB2 season? The weapons are surely there.

Before you get to some of the underlying metrics from his 2020 season, there’s a lot that seems to be pointing upwards for Roethlisberger in 2021. JuJu Smith-Schuster signed back with the team after many thought that he’d leave, and the team drafted Najee Harris in the first round to revive a rushing attack that was rather dormant in 2020. Chase Claypool should continue to develop, and Diontae Johnson is an excellent receiver as well. The Steelers love to throw the ball, and he’ll be another year removed from the elbow surgery he had back in 2019. That will help push the ball downfield more, and he has plenty of weapons to do so! Also, he was held to under 15 fantasy points just twice last year, providing relatively stable production for those that invested into him.

However, something is awry, and something has to give. Roethlisberger’s running back (Harris) is being drafted as an RB1, with expected production both on the ground and in the air. All three of his receivers are being drafted within the top 30 at the position, yet Roethlisberger is the 22nd quarterback off the board, per NFFC data. 

  • Cincinnati has three wide receivers in the top 35 at the position
  • Dallas has three wide receivers in the top 50 at the position
  • Miami has three wide receivers in the top 50 at the position
  • Tampa Bay has three wide receivers in the top 50 at the position
  • Jacksonville wide receivers has three in the top 55 at the position

The closest comparable is Tua Tagovailoa, but potential Deshaun Watson to Miami trade talks has suppressed his average draft position. Roethlisberger is the only clear-cut starter to be ranked this low, despite his primary weapons ranking so high.

Something is going to have to give in the Pittsburgh offense, and if Roethlisberger can’t improve upon his efficiency in 2021, it could be a collective decline from all of the wide receivers.

Let’s start with some quick-hitters from Roethlisberger’s 2020 campaign, per Pro Football Focus (PFF):

  • His 2.7 percent big time throw rate was his lowest mark since 2014 (2.3%)
  • His 7.4 aDOT was the lowest of his career
  • His 6.3 yards per attempt was the lowest of his career
  • His time to throw metric of 2.17 seconds was the fastest of his career, blowing out his previous low of 2.42 seconds in 2015

Roethlisberger had the third-most passing attempts in the National Football League last year, but just the 16th-most yards! Pure volume got him to where he finished last year, and he was fortunate he threw for 33 touchdowns. Dating back to 1985, there have been nine quarterbacks that attempted at least 600 passes, but failed to reach 4,000 passing yards, per StatMuse. Only three of them logged fewer than Roethlisberger’s 3,803 yards in 2020. Here are the four lowest marks:

NameYearAttemptsYards
Drew Bledsoe19956363507
Tom Brady20026013764
Carson Wentz20166073782
Ben Roethlisberger20206083803

Courtesy of StatMuse

Unfortunately, it doesn’t really get any better.

In terms of air yards per target, Roethlisberger only bested Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, Jared Goff and Drew Brees. Per my calculations, he had the fifth-lowest fantasy points per passing attempt mark, beating only Daniel Jones, Drew Lock, Dalton and Sam Darnold.

In terms of fantasy points per completion, he was tied with Philip Rivers for the third-lowest mark, coming in ahead of just Dalton and Darnold.

After what transpired in 2020, the Steelers tipped their hand for 2021. There is no chance they let Roethlisberger throw the ball over 600 times this year, or even come close to 40 attempts per game. What they did in the draft validates that. They drafted Najee Harris in the first round to revitalize the running game, and Pat “Baby Gronk” Freiermuth was a solid run blocker during his time at Penn State. Yes, he’s solid in the passing attack and can become a major threat, but with Eric Ebron there still, a lot of his work in the beginning will come via run blocking.

I’ll repeat what I said. There is no way that Roethlisberger averages over 40 pass attempts per game again in 2021. Also, the Steelers threw the ball 60 percent of the time in the red zone, per Sharp Football Stats, and that mark will surely drop this year. So, without that volume, if he isn’t effective or pushing the ball downfield for more fantasy-lucrative completions, he’s a tough sell in 2021, let alone if there is any regression in his touchdown numbers.

You can draft him as your QB2 and maybe stream him in a good matchup when your regular starter is on his bye week, but there are other quarterbacks being drafted around him that have a higher upside at this point in their careers. Why not go for one of them?

Statistical Credits:
profootballfocus.com
rotoviz.com
sharpfootballstats.com
statmuse.com