NFL ADP Analysis & Draft Strategy: QB/WR Combos

This week we are going to look in the ADP’s for certain QB / WR combos, we are also going to use the ADP’s that we are seeing from Mock Draft Army results, this will give us a better idea of where people are actually being drafted. I do not particularly try to force getting combos on my team, but I know that it is a strategy that some people use. The idea is that you get both the QB and the top WR, so when they have a big game it is likely big time fantasy points from both positions. The downside of it is when the team has an off game; you could be looking at low points from both spots. The other reason (and main reason) that people will go with this draft strategy is because they are homers, and tend to try and draft the key guys from their favorite team. Jon Impemba did a nice article for the Draft Guide about why you should try to avoid doing that, you can find that here “2017 NFL Draft Guide: Draft From The Head, Not The Heart.” But for those that still want to try and get the combos, this should help you get an idea of what it will take to make it happen.

Aaron Rodgers (32.52) / Jordy Nelson (12.52) This will be one of the more difficult combos to make happen, but can be done regardless of your draft position. Ideally to make this combo work you will want to be drafting late in the first round. You would then take Nelson at the end of the first round, which would only be a slight stretch, and come back and take Rodgers in the later portion of the third round. Yes you have to use two early picks to make it happen; but, this is the strongest combo on the market. You will get steady flow of production, and there is not a high risk of not getting weekly production here. Of course if you are planning on going this route, you will likely want to look for a RB in round 2, which will give you a nice balance of positions to start your draft. This combo is also a possible route for people who use the zero-RB strategy. 

Andrew Luck (71.52) / T.Y. Hilton (17.43) This combination was originally one of the harder ones to make happen, but with Luck dealing with an injury, both players are sliding a bit in drafts. Hilton will take a mid-to-late second round pick, while Luck can now be had in about the 6^th round. This combo was a great one in 2016 with both Luck and Hilton finishing within the top-5 of scoring at their position. If Luck can get healthy in time for the regular season, this combo should once again be amongst the best in the league, and have weekly production.

Matt Ryan (71.57) / Julio Jones (6.43) These two finished as the second best combo of the 2016 season only behind the duo of Rodgers and Nelson. This will be the second hardest combo on the list to make happen though. Jones will likely require a top-5/6 pick in the draft, and the Ryan is also one of the earlier QB’s being selected. While it will once again be amongst the league’s best combos, it is hard to believe Ryan will match his production of the 2016 season. To make this combo happen it will take a mid 1^st round pick and likely a 6^th-7^th round selection of Ryan.

Drew Brees (52.48) / Michael Thomas (15.00) Like a few of the other combos this one will take multiple early round selections to make possible. Thomas is being selected as a mid-to-early-2^nd round selection, while Brees is going as the 3^rd QB off the board in about the 5^th round. This combo has a lot of hype around it this season, with Brees always being a top-tier QB, and now Thomas being the number one WR for the Saints with the departure of Cooks. This combo should be a solid source of weekly production, making the early selections of both players understandable.

Russell Wilson (87.71) / Doug Baldwin (31.33) This combo is very doable with neither player going inside the top-2 rounds of the draft. Baldwin is being drafted in the 3^rd round with Wilson going in about the 8^th round. Last season this was a pretty underrated tandem with both players finishing inside the top-10 at the respective position. The Seattle offensive line is really poor and gives reason for concern, but it was last year as well, and these two managed to make it work. While they may not be a top scoring duo, both should do enough to be a nice consistent scoring option each week this season.

Ben Roethlisberger (115.86) / Antonio Brown (3.24) This will be the most difficult combo to make happen through the draft. This is simply because you will need to pick inside the top-3 to have any chance at Brown. Once you get the Brown half of this combo it becomes much easier from there. Big Ben is being drafted outside of the top-10 at his position and outside of the top-100 overall, meaning it should not be difficult to pick him up in the draft at a reasonable price. This will be one of the top QB/WR combos this season and one of the more reliable ones.

Dak Prescott (127.38) / Dez Bryant (17.86) This combo will likely see a rise in ADP with the news of Zeke being suspended six games to begin the season. Last season Dak was not asked to really open up the playbook with the stellar play of Zeke, so it is a bit risky to bank on Dak successfully being able to produce big time fantasy numbers without Zeke. Bryant also has constant health concerns, making this one of my least favorite combinations available. Currently it will take a late 2^nd round pick for Bryant and a late round pick for Dak, with his current ADP outside the top-120.

Eli Manning (163.74) / Odell Beckham (4.76) Another tough combination to make happen, as it will take a top-4 pick to be able to grab Beckham in the draft. The second part of the equation becomes much easier, with Manning being drafted just inside the top-20 of his position. This is not a combination I love, as I am not very high on Manning being a weekly producer for you. Last season he finished outside the top-20 among QB’s and is not someone you want in your starting roster. That being said Beckham should once again be one of the top WR’s after finishing last season as the fourth scoring WR.

Cam Newton (98.57) / Kelvin Benjamin (60.43) The easiest combination on the list to make happen. Neither player goes within the first four rounds of the draft, making this one very possible. Benjamin is currently being drafted in the 5^th/6^th round, while Newton is going just slightly outside the top-100 overall. Newton is being drafted as the 8^th QB off the board, and to make this combo work it will likely take your 5^th and 8^th or 9^th round draft picks. This combo allows you to really focus on the core of your team in the early parts of the draft while getting a nice value core in the middle rounds. While they might not be a top-tier duo, they should still both serve as solid starting options each and every week.

Andy Dalton (163.10) / A.J. Green (10.10) This combo was working great last season before Green went down with the hamstring injury. After that Dalton fell off, as he averaged just 208 yards and 1 TD per game over the last four games. Like all the other combos, the WR is the hard part of this to make happen. You will need a late first round pick to make this happen, as Green usually goes at the end of the first or at the beginning of the second. Dalton is a late round QB, and it should not be very difficult to find the right spot to get him. Dalton will have some off weeks, making this one of the riskier combos. He had only four games with more than one TD pass, and no games with three or more. He also only had four games total with 300+ passing yards.

Jameis Winston (121.24) / Mike Evans (9.67) To make this combo work you will likely need to be picking in the 6-10 range of your draft. Anything earlier or later than that, and Mike Evans likely won’t be a possible selection for your team. Last season this combo finished 16^th (Winston) and 3^rd (Evans) at their positions. Winston is being drafted as a middle tier QB and is an easy target in drafts. I like this combo a lot, with Evans coming off a huge season last year. Winston should also be improved with another year of experience and with the additions of DeSean Jackson and O.J. Howard to the offense. While it may not be an every week thing of top production, this combo should be a strong one this season.

Carson Wentz (181.67) / Alshon Jeffery (30.48) The only new combo on the list, so it is yet to be seen how these two will work together/develop chemistry. Jeffery moves over to the Eagles after injury plagued 2015 and 2016 seasons. Jeffery is being drafted as a late 3^rd round selection in fantasy, and while he does have high upside, the injury issues are a bit concerning. Wentz is going just inside the top-20 at his position and is going outside the top-175 overall, making him an easy grab in drafts. He carries some nice upside too, with stronger WR options and another year of experience. This could turn out to be a nice combination by year’s end.

Blake Bortles (181.62) / Allen Robinson (40.00) The last, and also second easiest to make happen, combo on the list. Robinson is the more challenging part of this equation, but he can be had in the fourth round. As for Bortles, he can be had very late in drafts and possibly near the end; he is being selected as the 20^th QB off the board. This combo was one of the best in 2015, but after faltering a bit last season, their values have seen a considerable drop. The team will also be more committed to the run this coming season after drafting Leonard Fournette. This will be a combo that will have some big weeks, but also cannot be relied upon for weekly production. Not a recommended duo to start each and every week.

*Notes: I did not include Brady because simply there are too many choices with Gronk, Edelman, and Cooks. I did not include Cousins because he has both Pryor and Reed. I did not include Mariota because he does not have a clear number one receiver. *When referring to the rounds they are being drafted in, it is for 10-12 team leagues. Anything more or less than that, would need a slight round addition or subtraction.