Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Lakers

Spread: LAL -8.5

Total: 227

Pace

Warriors: 3rd

Lakers: 18th

DvP (Defense vs. Position)

Warriors: 11th vs. PG / 18th vs. SG / 22nd vs. SF / 24th vs. PF / 24th vs. C

Lakers: 8th vs. PG / 22nd vs. SG / 5th vs. SF / 7th vs. PF / 9th vs. C

Key Injuries

MVP/CPT

Stephen Curry , PG GSW

As much as I like Anthony Davis and LeBron James , they haven’t flashed the upside Curry has this year and that’s why I lean Curry has my favorite captain play here. Three times in his last six games he’s put up 59+ DK points. The spread has shrunk throughout the day as it’s down to 8.5 as Vegas believes this game is going to be closer than originally anticipated.

Anthony Davis , PF/C LAL

I generally lean Davis’ over LeBron James because of Davis’ ability to notch steals and blocks at an elite level. If he brings the blocks and steals upside and put together one of those patented 30 point, 10 rebound games, we’re talking about 60-point upside. He’s the cheapest of the stars here and has an elite match-up as GSW ranks 24th vs. PF’s and C’s this year, both spots Davis will spend time at.

James Wiseman, C GSW

The intriguing part about Wiseman here is the minutes. He’s played 27+ minutes in two straight. You may think that’s not a lot, but the first game was with Eric Paschall out, the second one, Paschall played, so the minutes have really begun to rise. Wiseman has been an elite usage big man notching a 23.9% USG as well as 1.1 FP/min this season. Wiseman provides us with the opportunity to get multiple spend ups here.

Mid-Tier

LeBron James , PG/SF LAL

For the most part, James is sitting between 45 and 55 FP, which on a one-game slate, is hard to make up if you don’t have him in your lineup. I prefer Davis and Curry and don’t think James is a priority, but he’s always a triple-double threat. The Warriors have struggled defending small-forwards this year ranking 22nd in DvP.

Andrew Wiggins , SG/SF GSW

Over his last four games, Wiggins has been a FP/min guy averaging 22.1 minutes and 33.6 FP/min. Wiggins has a 23.9% USG rate this year and has been the guy the Warriors turn to lead their second unit when Stephen Curry is out of the game. We’ve seen nearly 50 FP upside out of Wiggins this season.

Kelly Oubre Jr., SF/PF GSW

Oubre has started to really come on strong lately, but still isn’t what he thought he’d be. Either way, we’re beginning to see 30 minutes a night out of him which is where we need him to pay this price. He’s put up 26+ DK points in three straight games and has back-to-back games of three or more three-pointers made, which is where he struggled mightily to begin the year.

Value Tier

Eric Paschall , SF/PF GSW

We know we’re going to get about 20 minutes or so out of Paschall each and every night, which if you’re trying to cram the studs in, you have to take some shots. This is a shot I’m going to take because even in 20 minutes, Paschall has put up 20+ DK points in 6-of-9 games. He’s even shown a ceiling of 30, which is extremely solid at this price.

Alex Caruso , PG/SG LAL

In three of his last four games, Caruso has put up 19+ DK points and has played 22 or more minutes in two of the four. He’s firmly in the rotation and if this game blows out, he’ll see even more run. Caruso is a solid three-point shooter and has multiple three steal games, which is the perfect punt option if he has both working.