I have long maintained that winning your fantasy baseball league is a combo of drafting a great floor in the early rounds and hitting on a few breakouts in later rounds. If you're winning your fantasy baseball league, you likely have one or two guys that have exceeded their draft position. Let's single out some offensive players that have far exceeded our March expectations. What do they all have in common? They were all taken in round 16 or later. Let's have some fun. 

The biggest fantasy baseball surprise of the year? Cedric Mullins. The average draft position (ADP) for Cedric Mullins, according to NFBC (National Fantasy Baseball Championship), was 512. That's right. Even in fourteen-team leagues, the current number one outfielder went largely undrafted. Mullins has been an absolute revelation in 2021. Baltimore's leadoff switch-hitter has hit .321 with 20 home runs and 22 stolen bases this year. He's slugging .540 with a .922 OPS, and his splits... well, what splits? Mullins is batting exactly .318 from either side of the dish. His R and RBI aren't tops, but just imagine if he played for a winning club. I have to credit Glenn Colton and Rick Wolf, who were both very high on Mullins coming into the season. Great call, guys. Mullins is a league-winner. 

Perhaps the second-biggest surprise of the year? Brandon Crawford. Maybe we should chalk it up to the entire San Francisco club's Renaissance, but Crawford is doing some pretty extraordinary things. How often do you see a 34-year-old veteran "break out?" Crawford has had a career- year with his highest ever batting average (.298), OBP (.364), slugging (.536), and OPS (.900). His 19 home runs are on pace to be the most of his career, and his 14% barrel rate is in the 90th percentile of the league. I picked him up off waivers, and I haven't taken him out of my starting lineup since. In March, Crawford was going at an ADP of 625, and he's currently the #9 fantasy shortstop. I'd say that's a pretty exceptional value. Crawford just signed a two-year extension with the Giants, and I'm guessing we won't get quite the same value on draft day 2022.

How about Joey Votto? Did anyone see that coming? Votto has been on an absolute tear with 15 home runs just since the All-Star Break. On the season, the 37-year-old lefty is batting .285 with 26 home runs and 75 RBI. Votto's ADP in March was 365, and he's currently the #7 Fantasy first baseman. 

And speaking of 37-year-olds, how about Yuli Gurriel? If I had told you in March that Yuli Gurriel would lead the Astros in OBP in August, would you have believed me? Likely not! Gurriel has notched career highs in batting average and OBP with twelve home runs and 66 RBI so far this season. He's currently the #11 first baseman, and his ADP in March was 312. I picked him up for $1 in my salary-cap draft, and he and Jesús Aguilar have carried my team for $2.   

Jonathan India is a name that wasn't on many radars coming into the draft season. I picked him up in the reserve-round snake draft that followed my salary-cap draft, and he's been more valuable to me than Christian Yelich. The rookie surprised us all by breaking camp with the move of Eugenio Suárez to shortstop, and the Reds certainly look to have struck gold. India qualifies at both 2nd and 3rd base, and he has an .860 OPS while batting .280 with 15 home runs and eight stolen bases across 372 at-bats. India's ADP in March was 585, and he's currently the #13 fantasy second baseman. 

Austin Riley. Wow, what a tremendous value! Riley was going at an ADP of 211, and he's currently the #6 third baseman or the #4 first baseman- that's right- he qualifies at both!! Riley finally put together plate discipline and power, and the result has been everything we could have hoped. Riley is batting .294 with an .894 OPS, and 25 home runs so far this year. His expected batting average is in the 81st percentile of the league, and his max exit velo is in the 89th percentile with a 13% barrel rate. That's a pretty deadly combo. 

The Willy Adames trade vaulted him from a March ADP of 382 to his current #15 ranking shortstop. Since arriving in Milwaukee, Adames has batted .297 with 16 home runs, four stolen bases, and a .929 OPS. Quite a difference from the .197 he was batting with Tampa. Sometimes a change of scenery, or maybe a change of ballpark, is all you need. 

Chris Taylor is another middle infield name that stands out. Taylor had a March ADP of 216, and he's currently the #5 second-baseman or the #6 shortstop. The injuries to Bellinger and Seager helped create an opportunity for Taylor to play every day, and boy, did he take advantage! Taylor is batting .280 on the season with 17 home runs and 11 stolen bases with career highs in OBP and OPS.

I was tired of waiting for the Jesse Winker break out. I got burned too many times. Major FAIL. Winker has been phenomenal this season, batting .307 with 24 home runs- precisely as advertised he would one day. Yes, that day is today. Winker has an expected batting average in the 96th percentile of the league and an expected slugging in the 90th percentile. Simply put, he hits the ball hard, and he doesn't strike out. Winker was going at pick 206 during March 2021 drafts, and he's currently the #5 fantasy baseball outfielder. 

Finally, Mitch Haniger. I sometimes think Mitch Haniger is the sole reason the Mariners are an above .500 club. Haniger's 26 home runs and 11.6 % barrel rate secure his place as the #17 fantasy baseball outfielder, much higher than we anticipated with his ADP of 236 in March.