As John Cena's entrance music says, the time is now. Time for what, you may ask? It's time to begin to look at the categorical distribution within your league and start to address those where you can gain points.
The math to demonstrate why is kind of cool but it's not as important as the conclusions drawn from the results so I'll present the nuts and bolts of the process. The idea is at the beginning of the season, the top to bottom distribution of typical seasonal league standings is more widespread than it will be come season's end. The high end is higher, the low end is lower. Looking at the distribution of the teams within each category doesn't make sense until the standings settle and prorate to how they'll look after 26 weeks of action. This is not to say there won't be movement within the standings, there obviously will be. It's just that if the distribution is still larger than it will be, it's hard to judge what you really need to gain points.
The process involves taking the average standings from a bunch of leagues with the same rules and format. I used the standings from the 2014 National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC) Main Event. The format is 15-team mixed draft with no trading. I then capture the same number of leagues from this year's contest and determine the average standings to date.
Here's the part you can't see (picture me waving my hand over my face) but years of working with the data has proven to be true. Each season, there's a different number of homers, steals, runs, strikeouts, etc. Therefore the raw totals of each stat at each standings place differs from year to year, However, on a percentage basis, each standings place consistently checks in with a similar portion of the total number of stats every season. The numbers are different, but the first place team in, for example, RBI always has "X percent" of all the RBI each season.
Each is expressed as a percentage of the total number of accrued stats in the respective categories. The ratio stats were considered counting stats even though the number of at bats or innings isn't the same for each standings spot. Here's the normalized standings from 2014 and year-to-date in 2015.
| 2014 | |||||||||
| Bavg | RBI | HR | runs | SB | ERA | W | WHIP | K | SV |
| 7.0% | 7.5% | 8.2% | 7.6% | 8.5% | 7.6% | 8.3% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 11.1% |
| 6.9% | 7.3% | 7.8% | 7.3% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.7% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 9.9% |
| 6.9% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.2% | 7.6% | 7.2% | 7.5% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 9.2% |
| 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 8.7% |
| 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.1% |
| 6.7% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.9% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.7% |
| 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.3% |
| 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.0% |
| 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.3% |
| 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.4% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 5.9% |
| 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 6.4% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 5.4% |
| 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 4.9% |
| 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.2% | 5.6% | 6.2% | 5.8% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 4.1% |
| 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.5% | 5.9% | 5.5% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 6.3% | 6.0% | 2.6% |
| 6.3% | 5.6% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.9% | 5.8% | 5.1% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 1.7% |
| 2015 | |||||||||
| Bavg | RBI | HR | runs | SB | ERA | W | WHIP | K | SV |
| 7.0% | 7.7% | 8.4% | 7.6% | 8.9% | 8.1% | 8.8% | 7.3% | 8.0% | 11.3% |
| 6.9% | 7.4% | 8.0% | 7.4% | 8.3% | 7.6% | 8.1% | 7.1% | 7.6% | 9.8% |
| 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.7% | 7.2% | 7.9% | 7.3% | 7.6% | 7.0% | 7.4% | 9.2% |
| 6.8% | 7.1% | 7.4% | 7.1% | 7.5% | 7.1% | 7.3% | 6.9% | 7.1% | 8.7% |
| 6.8% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 6.9% | 7.2% | 7.0% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 6.9% | 8.0% |
| 6.7% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 7.1% | 6.8% | 7.0% | 6.8% | 6.8% | 7.5% |
| 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.8% | 6.7% | 6.9% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 7.3% |
| 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.7% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.9% |
| 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% | 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.5% |
| 6.6% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.2% | 6.3% | 6.3% | 6.5% | 6.4% | 6.2% |
| 6.6% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.4% | 6.0% | 6.2% | 6.1% | 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.5% |
| 6.5% | 6.3% | 5.9% | 6.3% | 5.7% | 6.1% | 5.9% | 6.4% | 6.2% | 4.9% |
| 6.5% | 6.2% | 5.7% | 6.2% | 5.5% | 6.0% | 5.7% | 6.3% | 6.1% | 4.0% |
| 6.4% | 6.0% | 5.4% | 6.1% | 4.9% | 5.9% | 5.2% | 6.3% | 5.8% | 2.7% |
| 6.3% | 5.7% | 5.0% | 5.6% | 4.5% | 5.7% | 4.8% | 6.1% | 5.5% | 1.5% |
OK, I lied, we're almost there. The season started a week later than normal. if we wait a week, the ten categories will be very close. Still, it's close enough to start examining the standings in an effort to maximize your points for the final 15 weeks of the season.
Before offering some tips with respect to category management, it's worth noting the spread within average standings is not linear. This doesn't mean your standings will mimic these. but it does suggest there will be unique gaps and bunches within in category and what's most relevant is where your team subsides in each category. Are you at the bottom of a group of tightly bunched teams? Are you situated in a spot where you need a lot of help catching the next team?
With that as a backdrop, here are some tips to help you extract maximum points from your categories.
1. Prorate the gaps between standings places
This is perhaps the biggest mistake made when analyzing where you stand, We're not there yet but since the math is easier, let's say it's exactly mid-season and with seven more homers, you'd have four more points. Acquiring a hitter you feel will improve your homers by eight should get you four more points, right? Wrong. Obviously we're making the assumption that all else is equal (which it won't be) but the larger point is if the first half repeats, you're 14 homers behind, not seven. Wherever you are in the season, you need to prorate the gaps to get a better idea for what you'll need the rest of the year.
2. It isn't trade from strength to improve weakness but rather trade from where you can lose the least points to where you can gain the most
Granted, we're still a little early to go down this road, you should still be more concerned with accumulating as many stats as possible, but it's your placement within in category relative to the gaps and bunches that dictates what you address and from where. Maybe your 4th in RBI and 9th in steals. RBI appears to be your strength but what if you can jump to 2nd pretty easily but have no way to get any more points in steals and probably won't lose any either. Dealing from the lower category can aid the better one.
3. All else won't be equal
Keep tracking the moves of your closest competitors in each category. Did they make a trade? Did someone get hurt? Did a farm player get promoted? Don't get caught off guard. You may have a lead in a category but project to lose it based on present roster construction. Or maybe you think you did enough to catch someone without realizing they fortified the same category.
4. Make an honest assessment of your pitching in terms of ERA and WHIP
First off, it's a myth that you can't gain or lose points in BAvg, ERA and WHIP because of the accumulation of at bats and innings. We'll address this later in the season but while they're handy, take a look at the above data with respect to BAvg, ERA and WHIP. The spread is much tighter in the ratio categories. So much so that there's actually MORE movement in the ratios than the counting stats. No, I'm not kidding.
That said, I'm not talking about managing the ratios based on the gaps to squeeze out more points. I'm talking about salvaging a staff that is near the bottom of the standings, Can you realistically make up more points in ERA and WHIP than if you punted them and focused on wins, whiffs and saves? It sucks to have to do this but on paper it's a viable strategy if you're forced into it. The cost of the cheap pitchers to stream is minimal. Not to mention, you can take chances on all the potential closers since you don't care about the possible ratio damage. This could even mean dealing a closer with great ratios for a lesser one and a hitting upgrade. Or a good starter for help elsewhere.
When doing any analysis with WHIP and ERA, keep in mind that over time your ERA will move towards your WHIP, either up or down. There's more variance in ERA than WHIP and once the regression kicks in, ERA sees a bigger correction. Most of the time the points you get from ERA and WHIP are within two. There are exceptions when you're staff is extreme an extreme ground ball or extreme fly ball. Ground ball pitchers tend to have a WHIP higher relative to their ERA while a fly ball pitcher has a lower WHIP in reference to his ERA.
5. Compare your batting average to the other counting stats
If your average is really good but your production is low, you're in trouble. It could be just bad luck but the point is your average isn't likely to get that much better. An artificially low average will get better, and as it gets better the associated production will dovetail. The most likely reasons for a high average but low counting stats is having players from weaker teams or using players that hit lower in the order.
We'll broach this subject again in August. But now's the time to start thinking about the best roadmap to be able to proclaim, "The Champ is here.".