Let me set the situation. 

It’s September. All of the sites are are ALL IN on DFS NFL. Hundreds of thousands of dollars guaranteed every single slate. 

But here I am just looking to make a few bucks playing some DFS MLB.

Unfortunately, the MLB contests are about 1/8 the size of what they were in July. I don’t have as much time to be choosy with what I’m entering, so I go for a $20 20-man 50/50. The contest is single entry and has enough entrants where it decreases the variance a bit.

As I look at the entrants, there are some of the biggest names in the industry in this small $20 cash game. Regardless, I am feeling pretty good about my lineup, and after a big Jose Reyes home run, I am solidly in the money in the few contests I entered.

But then, I see a very chalky Yasmani Grandal explode against the Rockies, hitting two homers while driving in five runs. I am solidly in the money in all of my contests, well, except this $20 50/50. It appears that a 3-man train with three DFS “pros” all have the same lineup, and all have Yasmani Grandal. They’ve passed me.

I’m pissed. I’m not going to use their real screen names, but for the sake of this article, let’s just call them “cbabblur,” “pout326,” and “turkeyfeathers.”  

These guys are supposedly so good at DFS but they have to share lineups with one another AND enter them verbatim? And yeah, let’s do it in a small 20-man 50/50 while we’re at it. I don’t know turkeyfeathers and friends personally, but considering the people they associate with, I expect better. 

Anyway, cut a long story short, Jeff Samardzija throws a gem, gets the win, and I pass the three doofuses to make the money and save my sanity. 

With the DFS NHL season looming, I bring this situation up for a few reasons. 

a) We are going to be offering optimal lineups again for DFS NHL to those who subscribe to the DFS Playbook PRO. Brett Talley and I had a very successful 2015-16 season, where we cashed well above 60% of the time on both DraftKings and FanDuel. But believe it or not, it could have been even better. These small contests can be killer for the optimal lineups because it puts us at a disadvantage with these lineup trains. Let’s say only one of those three geniuses played the lineup in that $20 50/50. That lineup would have cashed. Instead, they’re each splitting $40 three ways, and are technically $6.67 losers. If you want to decrease your likelihood of splitting winnings, it may be wise to pivot away from one or two players from the optimal lineups. 

b) NHL contest selection is going to be very similar to September DFS MLB. There are so few contests available where you may be forced to play a lot of these smaller 10-man or 20-man 50/50 contests. Fortunately, FanDuel will continue to offer 100-man 50/50 contests that range from $1 to $25. These are absolutely the best contests to enter because the 10% rake is going to be lower than the stupid 11.5% to 13% rake that are connected to the double ups. Additionally, I do not recommend playing heads up with an optimal lineup as long as you know you’re not facing someone who is also using the optimal lineup. Last season, there were two occasions where a subscriber played my optimal lineup against me, which basically is a gift to the site we were playing on. One way to avoid this is for anyone who is a DFS Playbook PRO subscriber to use our Fantasy Alarm logo as your avatar. You can do this on both FanDuel and DraftKings. I've provided an image that you can use below. 

 

 

c) You’re going to see plenty and I mean PLENTY of these losers sharing lineups every single night. They don’t know anything about hockey, but they can’t help but gamble, so they’ll share lineups, and even play people heads up with the same lineup. This is something that happens a lot with a lot of the smaller DFS sports. If one person in your DFS clique knows a lot about the sport, then everyone in the clique just copies that one person. One thing that you can do to give yourself an edge is track the results of some of these guys as the season goes on. I’m at a point where I know who is legitimately good at DFS NHL and who isn’t as good at DFS NHL. DraftKings gives you the ability to track certain contests live, and to be honest, a lot of the names you see playing $1 contests are going to be playing those $1 contests every single night of the season. 

When it comes to cash games, in a perfect world, everything would be like DFS NFL where a good chunk of the lineups you face are amateurs who are on the same level of the average daily fantasy player, and where there is a plethora of large-field 50/50 contests to choose from. But unfortunately, life isn’t perfect, and you’re going to have to pick your spots the majority of the time. 

With DFS NHL, the majority of my entries are going to be in cash games. I will pick my spots when it comes to heads up contests and will mainly enter 50/50 contests on a number of sites. While I am very confident in my DFS NHL game, my bankroll is what you would imagine someone’s bankroll would be after seven years of higher education. 

Cash games are less risky and give me a higher likelihood of cashing on any given night. Last season, I was able to parlay the bankroll I was able to build via cash games and enter contests that I normally wouldn’t be able to afford later on in the season. I was one Antoine Vermette empty net goal away from winning the only Live Final qualifier I entered (yes, I am still bitter about it). 

Even though I say this, I do feel that DFS NHL is a very good GPP sport. There are so many different combinations of players that you can put together on any given night. Stacking is essential, but something you can do with linemates, power-play lines, defense pairings, or a mishmash of both. On top of that, most of the money that is guaranteed in DFS NHL is allocated to GPP tournaments. In fact, FanDuel has already posted their opening night contests, which is headlined by their  $100,000 guaranteed Super Breakaway tournament that only costs $3 to enter. 

Most people who don’t know what they’re doing are going to put all their eggs in one basket and enter these contests. Hey! How else can I turn $3 to $20,000 in one night playing DFS, right? Well, if that’s your only goal, then you are absolutely right. But unless you have money to burn, which I certainly don’t, then that’s not a strategy that is sustainable in the long run. 

If you insist on playing at least a few GPPs on any given night, I do recommend mixing those GPPs with cash games. A mix that I recommend is anything from 80% cash/20% GPP to 90% cash/10% GPP. This gives your lineups some upside while limiting the variance because of the higher cash rate you’ll get from playing 50/50, double up, or heads up tournaments. 

If you have the ability to choose between those 50/50, double up, or heads up contests, I definitely recommend 50/50 contests because a higher percentage of entrants end up making the money. Again, the rake percentages are similar (though 10% compared to 13% still makes a difference), but the fact that you can be in the 49th percentile and still win money is a pretty big deal.

Here’s to a very profitable season! If you have any questions, you can always follow me on Twitter @kle18, or if you are a DFS Playbook PRO subscriber, you can even private message me on the Fantasy Alarm Nation Forums.

And lastly, for those looking for help with season-long NHL, check out the Fantasy Alarm NHL Draft Guide!