This is the debut of my Weekly DFS MLB Lineup Breakdown. When my schedule permits (hopefully, weekly), I will breakdown my FanDuel Cash Game lineups by giving all of you DFS Playbook PRO subscribers a little insight on my approach to constructing my lineups. There will be full transparency, because I will be keeping track of my record throughout the season, and you will be able to view a screenshot that includes result with my lineup.

This season, I am devoting the vast majority of time to FanDuel, and occasionally dabbling into Fantasy Aces. The main thing here is FOCUS. You cannot possibly have 100 percent FOCUS when constructing your lineups if you are playing on too many different DFS sites. I do know a few people who play on four or five sites on any particular slate, but I feel that it is just a lose-lose situation. If you are a beginning player, please do yourself a favor and stick with one site. If you realize you’re not doing well on FanDuel, then sure, go ahead and play on DraftKings, but I just wouldn’t recommend playing on both sites on the same slate. Sure, when we do the optimal lineups here at Fantasy Alarm, we are definitely constructing lineups on multiple sites, but it’s not exactly something you would want to do in your own individual games. We generally do provide lineups for multiple sites here at Fantasy Alarm because we know that is what our subscribers want.

As far as game selection is concerned, I basically enter A LOT of 100-man 50/50 tournaments. I may change up my amount invested depending on how good I feel about each slate. I may do only $75 worth of entries if I don’t feel that great, but I’m willing to enter up to $250-to-$300 worth of entries if I feel really good about it (this is pretty rare, though). Still, bankroll management is key. I am never going to invest more money than what I’m willing to lose, or better yet, than what I can afford to lose.

Additionally, these cash game tournaments can be anywhere between $1 and $25 (the lowest and highest 100-man 50/50 tournaments that FanDuel offers). I do believe there is a reasonable amount of dead money in all of these tournaments. Having 100 entries in these tournaments helps reduce the variance, and having the top 50 percent win helps increase my likelihood of cashing. In general, when I refer to variance, I’m referring to risk. Entering a 10-man 50/50 is always a bit risky, because it makes it more likely for the cash line to be much higher. In the 100-man tournaments, it’s almost a lock for dead money to be scattered throughout the entries. In the smaller tournament, there’s a reasonable chance that everyone in that tournament can be a shark.

On the other hand, a lot of players prefer playing in the double-up tournaments, which I actually try to avoid unless there is overlay. My reasoning here is that I don’t want to put myself in a situation where I might finish between the 44th and 50th percentile, and not win money.  Plus, while all of those 100-man 50/50 tournaments have a 10 percent rake, all of the double ups have anywhere between an 11.5 percent rake, to 13 percent rake (every little bit helps).

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I also throw in an entry to the Grand Slam. I didn’t do this when I first started, but as I started cashing more consistently, I realized that my lineups always had some potential to hit a big score. For players who have not mastered lineup construction, I do not recommend doing this. Yes, you can do a cheap entry in the Squeeze, but $25 in the Grand Slam definitely adds up in the long run, and you are going to lose more often than you’re going to win. I have won the Grand Slam in the past, and I’ve finished in the top 15 a few other occasions. I have a very unorthodox cash game style in the sense that I stick with my gut, and do not roster chalky players for the sake of doing so. If they are chalk plays that I don’t like for one reason or another, and I’m able to find a better alternative, I’m simply not going to play them. I’ve also reached a point in my game where I simply trust my instincts.

Yes, I may take a glance at Jeff or Ted’s favorite plays in our DFS Playbook if it is necessary, but I am going to stick with my gut over anyone else’s suggestions. You will notice that a lot of the players I choose in my lineups have fairly low ownership because of this. And obviously, low ownership helps in GPPs. On the other hand, many of you beginning players may not have much of a choice. My research routine is very extensive, and quite time consuming. Luckily for you, you have some of the best research tools here at Fantasy Alarm, including Jeff, Ted, and Brett’s Playbooks, my Hitting Coach articles, and Howard’s Pitching Coach articles.  

Ultimately, I ended up playing on seven different slates throughout the first week of the season, so we have a lot to go over. Let’s get things rolling!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Monday 4/4 All-Day Slate

Points Scored: 105

Cash Line: 150

Result: LOSS

Grand Slam Result: Did Not Cash

Season Record: 0-1

Lineup reasoning:

I went back and forth with Kershaw and Scherzer as my starting pitcher, but eventually settled on Scherzer, which in retrospect was a huge mistake. In fact, it’s a mistake that I admit that I would never have done if I thought it through. Kershaw was only $500 more than Scherzer, but for some reason, I didn’t spot this and rostered Scherzer, when Kershaw was understandably the chalk play at only $11,000. Looking back at this, as silly as this seems, I attribute this oversight to sleep deprivation. I literally got three hours of sleep on Sunday night, and it was on a cramped airplane as I was flying back home to Los Angeles.

Nonetheless, I felt that Bryce Harper was absolutely a must play due to his Opening Day beast mode numbers, and domination throughout his career against Julio Teheran. Given the expensive players rostered, I obviously needed to find some savings throughout my lineup, and that led to my mini-stack of Mesoraco and Phillips who provided a huge savings with some upside against Jeremy Hellickson. And of course, with my guy, Franklin Gutierrez crushing lefties, I definitely wanted him in my lineup.

What Went Right:

Yeah, this was not the day to fade Bryce Harper. Some of the easiest points I’ll ever rack up. Otherwise, there was not much else to be proud of here.

What Went Wrong:

Obviously, there’s the Kershaw/Scherzer mistake as the main issue, but that wouldn’t have exactly helped me regardless (only a 24 point swing).  There were just too many other bad showings in Mesoraco, Phillips, Marte, Revere, and Gutierrez. I wasn’t exactly happy with Jeremy Hellickson dominating the Reds. On top of that, Revere was removed from the game in the 3rd inning after an injury. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Tuesday 4/5 All-Day Slate

Points Scored: 165

Cash Line: 144

Result: WIN

Grand Slam Result: Win $60

Season Record: 1-1

Lineup Reasoning:

So I was a day late on Trevor Story, but I wasn’t going to let it happen two days in a row. $2,500 for a guy like Story is like robbery. I also identified two really good matchups with the Tigers going against Wei-Yin Chen (they crush lefties, and all had a good history against Chen), and the Mariners going against Martin Perez. Given the fact that Johnny Cueto, in my opinion, was the only safe option at pitcher at $10,600, I also needed to fill the lineup with some value, so I went with Zimmerman, Lamb, and Gutierrez, who all had favorable situations, and were able to complement my big names in Cabrera and Cruz.

What Went Right:

Cruz was lights out in Arlington as usual, and Kinsler also didn’t let me down, hitting a dong with 4 RBI. Again, my approach generally leads to a few low-owned plays, but for this slate, Kinsler was really the only big one at just 10 percent ownership. Obviously, there’s also the Trevor Story situation where he continued his home run streak. Cueto only had four strikeouts, but he did a fine job, going 7 innings and allowing just one run in a big debut in Milwaukee.

What Went Wrong:

Miggy wasn’t worth paying up for, and Gutierrez continued to disappoint. I didn’t mind the donut from McCann considering he was a punt play, but this could have been bad if I didn’t get a good game from Kinsler. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wednesday 4/6 Late Slate

Points Scored: 147

Cash Line: 99

Result: WIN

Grand Slam Result: Win $53.07

Season Record: 2-1

Lineup Reasoning:

I just did not like Stephen Strasburg tonight. I knew that he would have high ownership virtually everywhere, but he just lacks the consistency that you would want for a guy priced higher than Kershaw on Opening Day ($11,300 vs. $11,000). My alternative was easily Kenta Maeda. He had a sensational Spring, and was a reasonable favorite against the Padres, who couldn’t get anything going against Kershaw. I also liked Juan Nicasio, but couldn’t get myself to go that route with Maeda at $7,200 (though, I did play him on Aces). Obviously, going with Maeda helped me pay up for a bunch of studs. I had a ton of salary to work with, which I was able to use to pay up for guys like Harper, McCutchen, and Correa. I didn’t mind a lot of the value I was using due to some good matchups like Zimmerman vs. Bud Norris, Phegley vs. Rodon, and Freese vs. Leake. I really don’t mind going the value route as long as I can spot some upside, and as long as the players I’m using has been hitting relatively well.

What Went Right:

Fading Strasburg was huge because he had over 40 percent ownership in all of my cash games, while Maeda had similar ownership at $4,100 less. But the big play was Correa. He had about 10-to-15 percent ownership in all of my cash games, and largely because the majority of players paid up for Strasburg. Everyone in my lineup was able to do something productive, and it contributed to my min-cash in the Grand Slam.

What Went Wrong:

So Bryce didn’t do much for someone with 72 percent ownership, but it doesn’t hurt as much because he had such high ownership. Other than that, I can’t say too many bad things about my guys, mainly because they all reached base at some point. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Thursday 4/7 Early Slate

Points Scored: 112

Cash Line: 99

Result: WIN

Grand Slam Result: Did Not Enter

Season Record: 3-1

Lineup Reasoning:

This was just a weird, weird schedule of games, where I didn’t like either slate in terms of WEATHER, and the lack of options. It led me to stay away from the late slate, which only had four games in play. I actually really liked the early slate, mainly because I was certain that far too many people were going to be on Salazar in the Indians/White Sox game, when it seemed like the game was a reasonable threat for a rainout. There were multiple other games that had a lot of rain issues where it could cause some sort of delay (I believe Marlins/Nats was the main one), so I also wanted to stay away from the pitchers from that game. That led me to Kendall Graveman, who I labeled as the “safest” pitcher of the day. At $5,000, it helped me pay up for the big guns at virtually every position, including the likes of Harper, Stanton, Correa, Posey, and Gonzalez.

What Went Right:

So the biggest thing that went right was the rain. I was correct in my assumption that the Indians/White Sox game would rain out. I also got big games from Adrian Gonzalez, who doubled twice, and Bryce Harper, who homered. Also got some good production from Posey and Valbuena.

What Went Wrong:

Technically, a lot went wrong. Graveman was outstanding until he allowed a Jose Abreu homer, costing him a shot at the win. Still, 18 points was better than 0 points, and the $5,000 salary obviously helped me pay up for Bryce, Buster, and A-Gon. I had three DONUTS in Lowrie, Correa, and Reddick, but luckily, it didn’t cost me. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Friday 4/8 Late Slate

Points Scored: 91

Cash Line: 72

Result: WIN

Grand Slam Result: Did Not Cash

Season Record: 4-1

Lineup Reasoning:

Not in love with any of the pitching options on this slate. Ultimately, it came down to Stroman against a tough Red Sox lineup, or Ventura in a so-so matchup against the Twins (I say, “so-so” because the Twins have had a bit of success against Ventura in the past). I knew that Ventura would be chalkier, but leaned Stroman because it had been pitching much better, and because he was $600 cheaper than Ventura. And no, I was not in on Taijuan Walker, who had some rough outings against the A’s last season.

The extra $600 was important because I was going away from some more chalk at 3rd base in Evan Longoria (not highly owned for some reason), and Luis Valbuena (over 40 percent owned). I really liked Manny Machado’s matchup against Chris Archer. It seems odd, but I had been watching a lot of Machado, and he was just looking locked in, and had a decent history against Archer. One particular stat I liked was that he had only ONE strikeout against Archer in 19 at-bats. That’s pretty huge when you consider that Archer is a strikeout pitcher.

I also paid up for Mr. Double Dong, Carlos Correa, and Nelson Cruz. I didn’t mind doing that, because I thought Chris Carter was an elite play at first, previously going 2-for-2 with a homer against Scott Feldman, and Dexter Fowler provided a lot of value batting from the right-side of the plate against Robbie Ray.

What Went Right:

Paying up for Machado was big, because Valbuena got a ZERO, and Machado homered. Also, Chris Carter went bananas against Feldman, homering and doubling off of his former teammate. Also, solid games from Correa and Fowler definitely made a difference.

What Went Wrong:

Well, Stroman got lit up, but was in line for a win before the Jays pen blew his lead. Also nothing to note from my value plays, including Franklin Gutierrez who is probably going to be on my naughty list for quite awhile. It is always rough to get a donut when you pay up for someone like Cruz as well. Still considering the cash line was a ridiculously low 72, my 91 was more than enough for a cash. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Saturday 4/9 Late Slate

Points Scored: 195

Cash Line: 159

Result: WIN

Grand Slam Result: Win $75

Season Record: 5-1

Lineup Reasoning:

OK, so here’s a lineup that really makes my game theory a lot different from everyone else. I am not going to be shy about playing a cheap young pitcher like Vince Velasquez if I don’t feel the higher priced options are worth paying up for. The two most heavily owned pitchers were Carlos Martinez of the Cardinals (65 percent-plus ownership), and Bartolo Colon (10 percent ownership). Yeah, Martinez had a decent matchup against the Braves, but I didn’t like what the Cardinals were doing leading up to Saturday’s game, and he was a bit more expensive than what I would have imagined he would be ($9,000).

My reasoning for using someone like Velasquez is this: a) he is cheap, b) his cheap price will help me pay up for some of the more expensive bats (Coors Field + more), c) he strikes out a lot of batters, d) the Mets are a bit strikeout prone, e) I didn’t think Bartolo Colon should ever be that big of a favorite, and f) he had a dominating Spring where he struck out 24 batters in 20 innings, and maintained an ERA of 2.25.

Also, let’s be real. Even if he has an average outing, and Martinez has a decent outing, I still think my contrarian, big upside hitters, can make up the difference. If it’s the other way around, and Martinez has a bad outing, there’s not many ways for me to be able to make up the extra points.

What Went Right:

Velasquez did more than I could have possibly imagined, striking out nine, and allowing no runs in 6 innings. Paying up for Trout and Cain had mixed results, where Trout didn’t do anything, but Cain homered. On the other hand, my Coors Field did a solid job. Matt Kemp was obviously the play of the night, but still wasn’t over 75 percent owned.  He hit two home runs while Derek Norris reached base three times.

What Went Wrong:

The Never Ending Story of Trevor Story finally ended without a homer. Still, I don’t mind it as much because he was so heavily owned, it didn’t make a difference. Regardless, 195 is pretty impressive, so nothing to be upset about.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

4/10 Sunday All-Day Slate

Points Scored: 140

Cash Line: 105

Result: WIN

Grand Slam Result: Win $51.25

Season Record: 6-1

Lineup Reasoning:

So the chalk of this All-Day slate was definitely Matt Harvey (ended up being 70 percent-plus owned). He was facing a weak Phillies lineup, and was somehow the cheapest out of all of the “stud pitchers” (included Arrieta, Keuchel, and Cueto).  On the other hand, I didn’t like the matchup as much as others. He didn’t impress me in his first start, where he allowed three runs on eight hits and two walks in 5.2 innings against the Royals. He also only struck out two batters. Plus, he had a horrible Spring Training, where he had as many strikeouts as walks (nine) in 12 innings, and had an ERA of 7.50. No way I was going to mess with that. I decided to roll with Keuchel because he has been pitching extremely well, and while some of the Milwaukee bats have hit him in the past (namely Braun), it’s still a weak lineup that featured Jonathan Villar hitting third, and the strikeout machine, Chris Carter, hitting fifth.

As for my hitters, I decided within the last 30 minutes before roster lock to fade Coors Field. I had Arenado in my original lineup, but with threats of a rain out, I decided to play it safe. With the extra salary available, I went with Bryce Harper who homered off of Tom Koehler four times in 2015. I also really liked Montero, because he has that “revenge factor” narrative against his former team, and because he had decent numbers against Shelby Miller. There were virtually no other catchers available who had anything even resembling a good history against their opposing pitchers. The other two plays that I liked were Eugenio Suarez who had be on fire, and is really good against lefties, and Adam Duvall, who was at a minimum price, who I figured could feast on a soft-tossing southpaw like Locke. Oh, and don’t forget about Chase Utley. I still love him on the leadoff spot, and he had a good history against Johnny Cueto.

What Went Right:

Well, even though Keuchel didn’t have the greatest game, he was still much better than Harvey, who allowed three runs and only struck out three in 6 innings. I had big games from both Montero (two doubles), and Suarez (homered), and got a good game from Bryce.

What Went Wrong:

My two Royals didn’t do anything, and that was pretty disappointing considering Escobar can usually put up points in a number of ways. Other than Keuchel walking way too many batters in the first inning, he still did a formidable job, getting me 32 points in a losing effort.

In the end, winning with six out of my seven lineups is definitely a great way to start the season. While I would love to maintain my 85.7 percent cashing percentage throughout the season, I will still stay the course, and not play out of my bankroll. Wish me luck next week!

IF YOU HAVE ANY QUESTIONS, FEEL FREE TO COMMENT BELOW, OR REACH ME ON TWITTER @kle18.