Far be it for me to give any of you a lecture on living right. Nobody will ever publish the “Jeff Mans Living’ Right” handbook. I enjoy cheeseburgers, eat gluten by the fistful, drink bourbon like a fish and thanks to all of the work I do on Fantasy Alarm, I don’t have much of an exercise regimen. In fact, I often don’t get a chance for a lunch break on most days. Don’t play violins for me though. This is the life that I have chosen.

The other day I was mapping out a strategy for my Tout Wars head to head league draft and once again figured there was no time for lunch. My Wife then demanded that I eat something and said those magical words, “How about a Hot-Pocket?”

So as I enjoyed the rat meat (ham) and cheese Hot-Pocket and studied my draft strategy a great idea was born. Draft pockets!

So, although you may be thoroughly disgusted with my lifestyle habits, and I can hardly blame you, my draft philosophies have been very good to me over the years. If you have been listening to my Fantasy Alarm Show on SiriusXM over the past week then you have likely heard my Draft Pocket segments. These breakdowns have been so popular that I’ve decided to share them in print for with you all here.

The goal of finding the proper draft pockets is not to tell you to wait until the ideal round to select a player at that position. For instance, just because you can get a great value on a first baseman in round seven, doesn’t mean you should pass up on Paul Goldschmidt in the first round.

Rather these are to notify you of where all of the value is for each MLB position. It is to make those critical decisions between two or more players easier for you. Let’s say you are selecting between Goldschmidt and Manny Machado in the first round, knowing where you can locate another 1B or 3B later in the draft provides you with the comfort you need to make the right choice. Knowing that there are a wealth of 3B ready for you in the eight to twelve round area, might help you make the right decision in selecting Paul Goldschmidt.

Remember, you do not want to draft position scarcity in the early rounds. I know that it is tempting to grab a Carlos Correa or Troy Tulowithzki early knowing that the SS position becomes a wasteland later on. But, when you have a plan in place for your draft, it provides you with the confidence you need to not take the bait.

So, sit back, relax, put your dinner in the microwave and hit the “entrée” button because we are about to change or reinforce everything you thought you knew about drafting your fantasy baseball team in 2016. These are my Draft Pockets:

 

CATCHER

The first rule of drafting a catcher is knowing whether your league starts one or two catchers. Obviously this changes the thinking quite a bit if you have to use two catchers all of the time. For the purposes of this exercise let’s assume you are drafting in a two catcher league.

I will say that during the course of my research for this article, I changed my tune rather significantly about the value of the Giants Buster Posey. A few weeks ago, I didn’t think that he was worth an early round pick even though he is and was the best catcher in fantasy baseball. My mindset was that since his power numbers were not that great, he wasn’t better than a good amount of corner infielders or stud outfielders.

Upon further review however, I do now think that drafting Posey in the late second or ideally early third round can be a big lift for the overall numbers of your team. Let’s take a look at Posey’s average numbers over the last four seasons.

148 games, 538 AB’s, .314/.381/.490, 20 HR, 90 RB & 71 Runs

The numbers that jump off of the page to be are the 148 games played and 538 AB’s more than anything. A catcher that is this important to his team and thus is in the lineup even when he is not behind the plate is a godsend for fantasy owners.

To further encapsulate his value consider this. Posey’s 256 RBI over the past three years is 18th most In baseball and more than both Justin Upton or Freddie Freeman. His .308 batting average is fifth best over the last three years which is tied with Pirate OF Andrew McCutchen. His 207 runs scored are the most by far over anybody else at the catcher position (24 more to be exact).

So you see, you might be able to lock down a backstop later on who hits you more HR than Posey does in 2016. But you are not going to find anybody else at the position to hit within 30 points of his batting average nor with anywhere close to the runs or RBI that he produces.

So, if you are going to be the guy that locks in Posey early I cannot blame you. The move here then becomes taking another backstop (again assuming two catcher league) in the first draft pocket outlined below. For everybody else, stick to the following pockets and you will be fine.

Remember, since catchers don’t play a ton of games we are looking for a decent if not above average batting average and someone that can knock in a fair amount of runs.

Pocket #1: Rounds 13-15 (#156-#180 overall)

Players Available: Devin Mesoraco, Matt Wiethers, Stephen Vogt, J.T. Realmuto, Yan Gomes and Yasmani Grandal

Pocket #2: Rounds 19-21 (#228-252 overall)

Players Available: Derek Norris, Wilson Ramos, Francisco Cervelli, Miguel Montero and Yadier Molina

 

FIRST BASE

Don’t get me wrong. I love some of the early round first basemen. Players like Paul Goldschmidt, Anthony Rizzo, Miguel Cabrera and Jose Abreu are as solid as it gets in fantasy baseball. So, if you decide to go in that direction early on in your draft I once again would not blame you in the least. Locking in the kind of power and run production that those aforementioned players provide is exactly the plan you should have going into your drafts.

But once again, we identify where the value pocket is at the first base position so that you are in no way beholden to taking one in those early rounds. Remember, you need to be locking in the absolute best of the best with your early round picks regardless of position.

The great thing about first base is that in most leagues you can take a guy like Goldie early on and still come back and attack the value pocket that I outline below. This is because in most leagues you can use a corner infield spot and/or a utility (or DH) spot in your lineup. A frequent mistake inexperienced players make is to not attack those roster spots and rather just use them as a spill over position in case they hit on a late round guy. The better you do and securing quality at every spot in your lineup the higher you will rise in your league standings. The goal is not to be competitive in your league, the goal is to smash those fools.

Here is the draft pocket for first basemen.

Draft Pocket: Rounds 5-8 (#60-#96 overall)

Players Available: Adrian Gonzalez, Freddie Freeman, Eric Hosmer, Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols.  

 

SECOND BASE

If you draft Jose Altuve in the first round of your draft, I am personally going to fly to wherever you live, knock on the front door and slap you across the face with my dirty shoe when you answer the door,

I say this fully knowing that if he somehow hits .341 again or heaven forbid he go deep 15 times or steal another 56 bases that I could be wrong. But that is a risk I am absolutely willing to take. Consider that Altuve’s batting average in the three years prior to his amazing 2014 season was .276, .290 & ,283. There is nothing wrong with those averages at all especially for a second basemen. But they are not first round type return now are they? When you further factor in that Altuve has hit an amazing .372 and .414 (not a misprint!) against LH pitching the last two years you realize how unlikely his average is to stay up in the high 300’s.

At 5’6” and 160 lbs, Altuve is absolutely not a power threat whatsoever despite the 15 bombs last year. He will be lucky to hit half of that in 2016 which puts his RBI total back into the low 50’s as well. If he continues to drop in steals (33% decrease from 2014 to 2015) his fantasy value will be that of a seventh or eighth rounder.

The great thing about second base is that there is a lot of talent at the position actually. Between veteran players who have had injury issues to post hype prospects this is certainly a position that could see a major revival this season. You’re not going to get any big power totals out of 2B but there are plenty of guys to hit for a good average while challenging the 15-15 mark in HR and steals.

Take a loot at the ideal draft pocket for second basemen in 2016:

Draft Pocket: Rounds 14-18 (#168-#216 overall)

Players Available: Dustin Pedroia, Starlin Castro, Ben Zobrist, Howie Kendrick, Daniel Murphy, Neil Walker, Jonathan Schoop and Logan Forsythe.

 

THIRD BASE

I have a love/hate relationship with the early round third basemen this year. I’ve been the conductor on the Manny Machado hype train for each of the past four years and thus I was very satisfied with his breakout in 2015. Nolan Arenado was another guy that I really liked going into last season and what is not to love about him hitting at Coors Field? Josh Donaldson proved me wrong and actually hit well against RH pitching for the very first time in his career. As good as Kris Bryant was last year though I am not touching him within the first five rounds at all this year as that batting average and stolen bases are guaranteed to sink.

So, unlike with first base and the great Buster Posey, I am not recommending that folks take one of the stud third basemen this year. I feel there is too much risk with each one of those guys and while yeah they may still do well, I fell there are far better and safer selections for you at the position.

I realize that this is a bold strategy (let’s see how it plays out, Cotton!) but I wouldn’t be driving this train unless I was pretty darn sure about the third sackers that we can land later on in drafts. I will go on record right now as saying that there isn’t more value at any position than at third base this year.

The names that I love in this particular draft pocket are Kyle Seager, Adrian Beltre and my favorite Evan Longoria. Do you realize that Longoria is in the last year of his first contract with the Rays and that he is set to command some huge dollars in free agency? Thus it is likely that he could be moved at the deadline this year which would almost certainly put him in a much better spot than he is with the Rays. Take a look at the 162 game average of Longoria’s eight-year career thus far:

.271/.348/.485, 30 HR, 102 RBI, 91 runs and 7 steals

Injuries you say? Glad you brought that up. Early in Longo’s career he was hampered by injuries this is true. But he has played in 160, 162 and 160 games respectively the past three seasons. Can you sit there, look me in the eye and with great confidence tell me that Kris Bryant will have a better fantasy season than Evan Longoria? I guarantee that 66% of you will show bravado and say “yes” to my challenge. Just know that you will be wrong.

Draft Pocket: Rounds 8-12 (#96-#144)

Players Available: Kyle Seager, Evan Longoria, Adrian Beltre, Maiken Franco and Mike Moustakas.

 

SHORTSTOP

Be honest with yourself. The only reason you would even consider taking Carlos Correa in the first round is to be the guy who has Correa. Don’t get me wrong. I absolutely love the kid. But at just 21 years of age and playing a very demanding position, you’d have to be nuts to entrust your fantasy team to Correa.

In many ways this is just like the Buster Posey debate I discussed in the catcher draft pocket writeup. You want Correa because he offers so much more upside than the rest of his position. It’s a scarcity argument. I know because I have been on both sides of this argument in the past with Troy Tulowitzki. The thing that I used to argue about Tulo was that even if he only played in 130 or so games, his production plus his replacement value would easily total up as the top SS in fantasy baseball. The trick to the Tulo debate however was that he was playing in Coors Field. He had built in production simply by having his skills, spot in the batting order in that ballpark. Tulowitzki is still a talented hitter and probably the best hitting SS in baseball. But you’re not considering him in the first round are you? Exactly.

The importance of having a plan going into your draft is so that you don’t become distracted and stray too far from the championship path. There is not a SS in baseball that is going to win you your league title this year. That is just a fact. Thus, stick to the script and allow the game to come to you.

You need to target steals, batting average and runs with your shortstop and middle infield positions. It’s ok, there are plenty to be had there trust me. But don’t get stuck feeling as though Carlos Correa’s 18 HR are going to make a dramatic impact for you in your league. If you want a HR impact in the first round take Miguel Cabrera or Anthony Rizzo. To that end I will bet that Andrew McCutchen outperforms Correa in every fantasy category this season. Yet, nobody seems to like Cutch this year.

Shortstop is the last position that you need to address in your drafts this year. Of course you’ll likely fill an OF spot or two, a starting pitcher and probably a closer after short but you get my drift. All you need is a guy who will not hurt you with batting average, steal 25+ bases and ideally hits toward the top of the order so that he can rack up some runs for you.

Let’s take a looks at the draft pocket for shortstop this year:

Draft Pocket: Rounds 18-22 (#216-#264)

Players Available: Ketel Marte, Trevor Story, Marcus Semien, Alexei Ramirez, Jhonny Peralta, Alcides Escobar, Erick Aybar and Brad Miller.

 

OUTFIELD

How you draft your outfield in fantasy baseball will often define how well your team does overall this and every season. Outfielders have a real tough job. They have to hit homers, drive in runs, steal bases, score runs and do this all while helping us with a positive EV batting average.

The problem many run into is that they draft a very one dimensional outfield. They go with some power guys early and wind up continuing that trend into the later rounds. The problem with this is that you aren’t going to get steals or runs with the majority of corner infielders or catchers. Also, these days there are not many middle infielders who will rack up huge numbers in the stolen base category.

Fortunately for us there is a wealth of talent at the OF position. The players and more importantly the numbers are there for us to take providing we are smart enough to acquire them properly. The inexperienced fantasy baseball player will look at the OF position and feel there is a ton of talent and thus no need to strategize or plan for when to draft them or how to blend them together.

Since most leagues require a minimum of three and usually five starting outfielders, we need to identify multiple pockets of value. What’s more is that we have to find areas to acquire the stats that we need from these players.

Thus I have identified three different draft pockets for the outfield position. The first one is chalk full of players that will impact all five main statistical categories of fantasy baseball.

The second is a speed pocket where you should select one of your most important pieces of your outfield and team, your big steals guy.

The third and final draft pocket is something that is very rare and that is late round power. These are usually veteran players that fantasy players are down on for one reason or another but who can help push your team over the hump in the power categories.

Let’s take a look at these outfield draft pockets:

Pocket #1 (5 Category Impact)t: Rounds 4-6 (#37-#72 overall)

Players Available: Nelson Cruz, Ryan Braun, Carlos Gomez, Yoenis Cespedes, Justin Upton, Lorenzo Cain, Adam Jones and Carlos Gonzalez

Pocket #2 (Speed Pocket): Rounds 9-12 (#97-#144)

Players Available: Jacoby Ellsbury, Ben Revere, Christian Yelich, Gregory Polanco, Adam Eaton, Brett Gardner and Billy Burns

Pocket #3 (Power Pocket): Rounds 16-19 (#181-#228)

Players Available: Mark Trumbo, Curtis Granderson, Jay Bruce, Alex Gordon, Wil Myers, Josh Reddick and Yasmany Tomas

 

STARTING PITCHER

Starting pitchers are very similar to outfielders in fantasy baseball in that collectively they must fill up just about every statistical category your league permits. If not, your team will be toast. So, just like with the OF position I have identified three separate pockets of value for you to attack during your draft.

The way I like to build my pitching staff in fantasy baseball is with two stud arms that I trust to hurl a ton of innings and rack up the four main categories (Wins, K’s, ERA & WHIP). Obviously locking down Clayton Kershaw in the first round will help considerably in this regard but by no means will he win you categories all by himself. In fact, the biggest mistake people make when drafting Kershaw or any big time starter is to not back him up with another front line arm. Trust me when I tell you that this is a mistake that I have made several times so I am speaking from experience.

For this exercise it really doesn’t matter if you decide to go with Kershaw in the first round. If you decide to go pitching early, don’t stop there. Make starting pitching a strength and continue accumulating front line starters. I’m a big believer in identifying young starters who are on the verge of a breakout. These will be the guys who push your team over the threshold this season.

The final pocket is a late round group of big strikeout arms who have solid groundball rates and other peripherals. These guys are perfect for rounding out a quality fantasy baseball rotation and should blend nicely with your two (or three) front line hurlers.

Here are the draft pockets for starting pitchers:

Pocket #1: Rounds 3-5 (#37-#60)

Players Available: David Price, Gerrit Cole, Jacob deGrom, Corey Kluber, Stephen Strasburg, Chris Archer and Dallas Keuchel

Pocket #2: Rounds 7-10 (#85-#120)

Players Available: Tyson Ross, Michael Wacha, Carlos Martinez, Garrett Richards, Masahiro Tanaka, Jordan Zimmermann, Francisco Liriano and Yu Darvish

Pocket #3: Rounds 23-26 (#277-312)

Players Available: Jimmy Nelson, Trevor Bauer, Hyun-jin Ryu, Nate Karns, Nathan Eovaldi, Anibal Sanchez and Clay Buchholz

 

CLOSER

I’ve been all over the map when it comes to closers. I used to ignore them completely and just utilize my waiver budget to grab whatever guys broke out during the season. Then I got sick of having to use all of my FAAB on closers that I decided to scoop up two premium closers early on in drafts. This strategy performed better than ignoring them completely but would fall apart the moment one of my guys lost his job or got hurt.

I’ve also been a big believer in using premium setup men to round out my rotation. This is a great idea for head to head leagues that allow you to use elite bullpen guys to dominate in the ratio categories. A popular strategy this year is to grab two or all three of the Yankees closer candidates. While this idea seems great on paper, it is very unlikely for three guys to put up such enormous numbers while all playing for the same team. It just never happens and I am not willing to invest three positions on my team for this.

What I have learned through all of this is that the truth and the best strategy as always lies in the middle. You simply have to invest in a closer who has a long leash and as much job security as possible. I target guys who are the clear closer and have a big contract to protect them from any managerial shenanigans. I absolutely must have that one front end guy to anchor my staff.

I will also grab another closer later on to round out my staff and make sure that I remain competitive in the saves category. This is a tricky situation because while you want to accumulate saves, you cannot afford a guy who will hurt your WHIP and/or ERA. Closers on bad teams are the perfect example of who to target with that second closer spot. The thing many don’t realize is that bad teams win a lot of close games meaning plenty of save opportunities.

The draft pocket for closers is a universal spot in which you can use to take either your first or your second closer. You will have to decide which direction that you prefer to go with. I don’t want to use a real early pick on a closer and since each draft is different, it is real difficult to determine just when you would have to pull the trigger on a top guy.

But make no mistake, if closers are jumping off of the board early I would be perfectly comfortable with one of the following closers being my anchor.

Here is the draft pocket for closers this season:

Draft Pocket: Rounds 13-15 (#145-180)

Players Available: Francisco Rodriguez, Jonathan Papelbon, Huston Street, A.J. Ramos, Glen Perkins and Santiago Casilla