Why not wrap up the Behind the Breakout series with a closer? Known around the clubhouse as “Caballo Blanco”, Hansel Robles turned a corner after joining the Angels last year as a waiver claim from the Mets. However, this year he’s reached a new level. Robles attributes part of his success to Los Angeles accepting his quirky personality and unlocking his arsenal by adding a pitch as detailed in the quote below from Jeff Fletcher’s recent article in the Orange County Register:

So far this year, Robles owns a 5-0 record with 22 saves in 69 appearances spanning 70.2 innings with a 72:16 K:BB, 2.29 ERA, 3.97 xFIP and 0.99 WHIP. According to Statcast, Robles evolving arsenal encapsulated above suggests he’s truly broken out this season. Last year, Robles used his fastball over 60 percent of his pitches. He used his change-up less than three percent of the time and his slider just over 28 percent. Note his change courtesy of this chart from Statcast: 

Increasing his change-up not only trades line drives for ground balls this year, Robles remains in the midst of a hot streak dating back to June first. He leads all American League pitchers with at least 30 innings in ERA (1.19) spanning 45.1 innings. Within this sample, Robles owns a 47:9 K:BB, .217/.256/.297 slash line against, .235 weighted on-base average, 0.97 WHIP and 22 strikeouts minus walks percentage. There’s some luck baked in reflected by his 3.54 xFIP and a 92.2 left-on-base percentage in this sampling, but it’s the expected statistics which provide hope going forward. 

But first, here’s a pitch plot of Robles arsenal from this year: 

Now, back to his expected numbers by pitch: 

  • Four-seam: .205 batting average allowed, .202 expected batting average, .250 expected weighted on-base average, 31.2 strikeout rate, 9.2 walk percentage

  • Slider: .238 batting average allowed, .267 expected batting average, .256 expected weighted on-base average, 13.6 strikeout rate, 2.3 walk percentage

  • Change-up: .169 batting average, .190 expected batting average, .172 expected weighted on-base average, 29.5 strikeout rate, 1.6 walk percentage

While using three pitches enhances a closer’s repertoire, Robles could benefit from deploying even more change-ups in the future. Without focusing on a pitch, Robles also shows well working above and below the strike zone. Here’s his zone profile with one week remaining: 

Although José Leclerc burned fantasy owners this year reducing his walk rate in the second half of last year but migrating to the mean this year. Robles provides more hope carrying over his gains when perusing his rolling 15 game averages the last three seasons: 

He’s not only cut his walk rate in one half over a sample, but over the course of the season with the addition of the change-up. In fact, Robles has only yielded one more hit and nine fewer walks than last year despite facing 32 more batters. His change-up allows Robles to produce more strikeouts and be more efficient which translates to fantasy goodness. 

Not highlighted in his surge since June, Robles also recorded a streak of retiring 27 consecutive batters snapped on September 15th when Eric Sogard reached on an error. Robles also notched an 11.1 inning hitless streak. And the best part, in home games his entrance: 

 

 

Many will be skeptical of a repeat by Robles. Plus, with the Angels struggling down the stretch, his hot streak will be masked by only three saves so far in September despite giving up zero earned runs with a 12:1 K:BB and minuscule 0.21 WHIP over 9.1 innings. A likeable guy with a cool entrance adding to his pitch arsenal after a breakout this year at a reduced price in 2020? Sign me up for Team Caballo Blanco. 

Thanks for reading the series all year, it’s been a blast.

Statistical Credits: 

BaseballSavant.com
Fangraphs.com
MLB.com - Game Notes

https://www.ocregister.com/2019/09/23/quirky-hansel-robles-needed-a-change-to-blossom-with-the-angels