Ray’s Ramblings: Pitching Worse, Really

In PART I I detailed the arms on the bump that are guy you will want to “buy low” on – fellas who are pitching better than their raw ERA suggests. In this bookend piece I will discuss the hurlers that are the ones you should be selling since it appears that their performance to date simply doesn’t match their raw ERA.

EARNED RUN AVERAGE

Earned run average, or ERA, is figured by earned runs divided by innings pitched multiplied by nine. From 2000-15 the league ERA has been 4.24 and the mark has been between 3.74 and 3.96 the last three years. We all know that a mark under 2.50 is fantastic, a mark under 3.00 is really good, and a mark under 3.50 is solid. When the marks start approaching four, we know to move in another direction in the fantasy game.

However, ERA is a very rudimentary way to look at pitcher performance. There’s simply too much white noise involved. In order to do a better job analyzing pitchers work, we take things to the next level, and one of the measures we can do that with is Fielding Independent Pitching.

WHAT IS FIP?

Fielding Independent Pitching is a pitching measure that is more accurate at depicting the performance of a pitcher than ERA. FIP only takes into account the events that are directly in the control of the pitcher (K, BB, HR, HBP). In effect, FIP builds off the work of Voros McCracken in DIPS ERA by trying to allow the FIP number to be representative of the events that are directly in a pitcher's control versus those that he cannot such as (a) how effective are his fielders? (b) where are those players being positioned by coaches etc.
 

FIP = ((13*HR)+(3*(BB+HBP))-(2*K))/IP + constant
* The constant is generally around 3.20.

If you have time, check out this great little video.

In the chart that follows, I will list all the arms that currently qualify for the ERA title that have posted a mark of (-0.96). What does that number refer to? It refers to the difference between the raw ERA of a pitcher and his FIP. There are 25 men, out of the 102 that qualify, that belong to that group. Remember, all these arms are actually performing worse than their raw ERA suggests.   

GUYS TO POTENTIALLY AVOID

Two words… Colby Lewis. You know better.

Realize that Zimmerman is the second worst offender on this list but the context is still a FIP of 3.07 which is still lower than his 3.38 career mark. The ERA could rise two full runs and he would still be below his career ERA (3.24).  

Hernandez is starting to worry me. The velocity is down, and while I’m not panicking there the 7.12 K/9 rate and 4.42 BB/9 rate are concerning. His current FIP of 4.11 is nearly a full run above his 3.21 career mark.

Latos has a mark of 4.44 in FIP. I have no issue with thinking his ERA could be within a half run of that mark moving forward. Notice I didn’t write above or below.

Finnegan, for all his arm talent, has a terrible K/9 rate and his BB/9 rate is even worse. Blasted all over the place for big flies too.

Happ has a 5.67 K/9 rate. You can’t do that in the AL and post an ERA of 2.50. You already know that I hope.

Maeda’s FIP is nearly double that of his ERA. It’s still a very solid number though. I mean, are you going to honestly tell me you would be upset if Maeda posted a 3.12 ERA this season? You’d be off your rocker if that bothered you.

Hammel falls into the same category as Maeda. He’s never had a 3.22 ERA in his career (his current FIP). In fact, he’s never had a mark lower than 3.43 in his decade long career.

I’d still be stunned if Chatwood posted a mark of 3.39 this season in ERA. Doesn’t miss enough bats, terrible home park.

Shields has seen his strikeouts plummet and walks explode. Still, there’s room for improvement here.

Wisler has been as good as the Braves could have expected. He still doesn’t miss bats though and that .183 BABIP could literally go up .100 points. That’s gotta cause some pause, doesn’t it?

Nicasio has more than a strikeout per innings but that 4.31 walk rate per nine still scares me. Also concerned that he’s failed to throw 130 innings in either of the last two seasons including just 58.1 last season.

Corbin… I’m still a fan of. I talked about him in this Big 3 video.       

Speaking of videos… did you see the posts Hitters (Bryce Harper, Martin Prado, Josh Reddick) and the Daily Dive (Matt Harvey, Cesar Hernandez, Curt Casali) for Monday, May 9^th?

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).