Earned run average, or ERA, is figured by earned runs divided by innings pitched multiplied by nine. From 2000-15 the league ERA has been 4.24 and the mark has been between 3.74 and 3.96 the last three years. We all know that a mark under 2.50 is fantastic, a mark under 3.00 is really good, and a mark under 3.50 is solid. When the marks start approaching 4.00, we know to move in another direction in the fantasy game.

However, ERA is a very rudimentary way to look at pitcher performance. There’s simply too much white noise involved. In order to do a better job analyzing pitchers' work, we take things to the next level, and one of the measures we can do that with is Fielding Independent Pitching.

WHAT IS FIP?

Fielding Independent Pitching is a pitching measure that is more accurate at depicting the performance of a pitcher than ERA. FIP only takes into account the events that are directly in the control of the pitcher (K, BB, HR, HBP). In effect, FIP builds off the work of Voros McCracken in DIPS ERA by trying to allow the FIP number to be representative of the events that are directly in a pitcher's control versus those that he cannot such as (a) how effective are his fielders? (b) where are those players being positioned by coaches? Etc.
 

FIP = ((13*HR)+(3*(BB+HBP))-(2*K))/IP + constant
* The constant is generally around 3.20.

If you have time, check out this great little video.

 

In the chart that follows, I will list all the arms that currently qualify for the ERA title that have posted a mark of 0.72. What does that number refer to? It refers to the difference between the raw ERA of a pitcher and his FIP. There are 25 men, out of the 102 that qualify, that belong to that group. Remember, all these arms are actually performing better than their raw ERA suggests.
 

 GUYS TO POTENTIALLY TARGET

Name

Team

K/9

BB/9

HR/9

ERA

FIP

E-F

David Price

Red Sox

11.54

2.61

0.87

6.75

2.93

3.82

Adam Wainwright

Cardinals

5.18

2.70

0.90

6.30

4.20

2.10

Zack Greinke

Diamondbacks

8.24

1.85

1.03

5.15

3.35

1.81

Phil Hughes

Twins

6.12

2.23

1.11

5.85

4.06

1.78

Jose Fernandez

Marlins

12.56

4.28

0.53

4.28

2.66

1.62

Collin McHugh

Astros

7.34

2.10

1.31

5.50

4.03

1.47

Ricky Nolasco

Twins

7.98

1.17

1.17

4.70

3.39

1.31

Luis Severino

Yankees

6.96

1.67

1.95

6.12

4.90

1.23

Dallas Keuchel

Astros

7.77

3.89

0.61

4.70

3.53

1.18

Noah Syndergaard

Mets

11.50

1.88

0.23

2.58

1.56

1.02

Justin Verlander

Tigers

9.07

3.24

1.51

5.40

4.39

1.01

Ross Stripling

Dodgers

7.64

3.27

0.27

3.82

2.86

0.96

Alex Wood

Dodgers

7.64

3.27

1.09

5.18

4.22

0.96

Jerad Eickhoff

Phillies

8.42

1.73

0.99

4.21

3.29

0.92

Mike Leake

Cardinals

5.77

2.36

1.57

6.03

5.11

0.92

Nathan Eovaldi

Yankees

8.84

1.91

1.43

4.78

3.90

0.88

Matt Harvey

Mets

7.88

2.93

0.90

4.50

3.67

0.83

Aaron Nola

Phillies

9.59

1.57

0.59

3.13

2.31

0.82

John Lackey

Cubs

8.93

2.23

0.89

4.02

3.20

0.82

Matt Moore

Rays

9.17

2.48

1.49

4.95

4.17

0.78

Anibal Sanchez

Tigers

9.68

5.58

1.47

5.87

5.09

0.78

Corey Kluber

Indians

8.79

1.47

0.63

3.35

2.58

0.77

R.A. Dickey

Blue Jays

6.30

3.38

1.13

5.18

4.42

0.75

Clay Buchholz

Red Sox

6.49

3.89

1.30

5.71

4.98

0.74

Wade Miley

Mariners

6.63

1.89

1.18

4.74

4.02

0.72

 

Price – I’ve been touching on his strengths and why you shouldn’t be overly worried.

I’m a bit surprised to see Wainwright listed so high, especially with a 1.92 K/BB ratio. I would also note that even if he is pitching “better,” note that his FIP mark is 4.20, which would be worse than the league average. So in context he’s been better, but really, not very good.

Greinke – duh. He’s allowed two earned runs or less in 4-of-5 games.

Fernandez is on his game, other than the walks, the pitches, and not being able to go deep into games. I looked at Fernandez in depth in What’s Wrong with Jose Fernandez?

Hughes has a 59.4 percent left-on-base percentage. His career mark is 71.2 percent.

McHugh actually has a 3.50 K/BB ratio. The mark was just 3.23 last year. Lots of blame heads to that .374 BABIP.

Severino… you know I like him. Check out his Player Profile.

Stripling has pitched better than I thought he would over his six starts, no doubt. Still just 7.64 strikeouts per nine while his 3.27 BB/9 rate isn’t spouting success. Nice 1.63 GB/FB ratio, but the homer is coming (one in six starts).

Wood has only walked two batters while striking out 16 his last two starts, though he’s been extremely uneven this season of course.

Harvey has allowed nine earned runs over his last four starts. He’s walked just six batters his last four outings as well. Slowly improving is the righty.

Nola has been flat out money this year. I was a fan coming in to the year, but boy, he’s been way better than I even I was hoping he would be. Nola has somehow produced 49 strikeouts in 46 innings, even though he’s not a strikeout arm of that magnitude. Never walks anyone, just eight in seven innings, and his 54 percent ground ball rate impresses. Things will regress, but he’s looking at an awful lot like Jordan Zimmermann with a slight bit more strikeout oomph.

In PART II I will touch on the guys that seemingly are pitching better than they really are.

Ray Flowers can be heard Monday through Friday, 7 PM EDT and Friday on SiriusXM Fantasy Sports Radio (Sirius 210, XM 87). You can also hear Ray Sunday nights at 6 PM on the channel talking fantasy sports. Follow Ray’s work at Fantasy Alarm and on Twitter (@baseballguys).