Brandon Belt has yet to live up to expectations with the Giants. After a tremendous/meteoric rise through the minors, Belt reached the bigs with oodles of hype. He flashed big power in limited time on the field last season, and he was a key cog in the playoffs as well as the Giants won their third World Championship in five years as he hit .295 with a .397 OBP and eight RBIs in the playoffs. Is 2015 the season he puts it all together or is he destined to be always be in that 15-20 range amongst fantasy first basemen in mixed leagues? 

THE MINORS

2009: Drafted in the 5th round by the Giants after playing at the University of Texas.

2010: Appeared in 158 games at High-A, Double-A, Triple-A and the Arizona Fall League. He killed it. He batted .355 with 24 homers, 128 RBIs, 115 runs scored and 23 steals. Tossed in a 1.071 OPS for good measure.

2011: Baseball America ranked Belt as the 23rd best prospect in baseball while Baseball Prospectus ranked him 22nd. Appeared in 81 games at High-A, Double-A and the Dominican Winter League. He hit .313 with 11 homers, 47 RBIS and 49 runs scored. Also stole seven bases and posted a .946 OPS.

2014: Saw action in seven games batting .520 with a 1.571 OPS. He hit three homers.  

TOTALS: .346/.450/.595 with 38 homers, 181 RBIs, 168 runs and 32 steals in 246 games

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THE MAJORS

2011: Appeared in 63 games with the Giants batting .225 with nine homer, 18 RBIs and 21 runs in an inauspicious start to his big league career.

2012: Hit only seven homers with 56 RBIs and 47 runs scored in his first full season. Did bat .275 with 12 steals over 145 games.

2013: Had a solid all-around effort batting .289 with 17 homers, 67 RBIs and 76 runs scored for the Giants over 150 games. 

2014: Dealt with multiple health situations - he suffered a fractured thumb that cost him 50 games then missed another 50+ days while dealing with a concussion and its aftereffects - but socked 12 big flies with 27 RBIs and 30 runs scored in just 214 at-bats over 61 games. 

THE SKILLS

On the right day, Belt looks like a world beater. Rather athletic, he can steal a base or make things happen on the bases. Other times he's got an eagle eye at the dish working the count and taking a free pass if he doesn't get his pitch. Belt is also capable of driving the ball deep into the night with a big fly. All of of that is accomplished with a short stroke that is eerily reminiscent of that of Chase Utley. More of a punch at the ball type of hack versus a fluid stroke through the zone, both men of truncated swings punctuated by short follow through's.

Watch the guys at MLB Network break down Belt's swing.

Here's a Chase Utley homer to compare. 

At other times though Belt displays no power, can't get on base and can be pitched to, hence the vexing nature of his current game. 

Through 419 big league games the 26 year old - he turns 27 in late April - has hit .268 with a .344 OBP and .447 SLG for his career. Those are passable numbers but are nowhere near the level of production that his minor league track record suggested. Let's take things step by step.

BATTING AVERAGE / PLATE DISCILPLINE

Belt has that .268 batting average under his belt, but the only time he produced 500 at-bats (2013) he hit .289 so perhaps he has more to give? For his career Belt has a .332 BABIP, obviously a big  number. Moreover, in the two season in which he played 145 games, 2012 and 2013, he produced identical BABIP marks of .351. In 2011, his last minor league season, Belt had a BABIP of .392 over 53 games. Normally I would say it's bonkers to expect that number to consistently be scene, but there is is with Belt. The story gets even more intriguing when we consider the following data point. Belt had a 25.6 percent line drive rate in 2012. In 2013 the number was 24.3 percent. In his last minor league season of 2011 the mark was 27.1 percent. Again, can't see how that number is repeatable, but there it is. The fact of the matter is that Belt has shown an ability to greatly exceed the league average marks of about 20 and .300, by a substantial margins. Oh, in 2014 the numbers were league average stuff at 18.0 and .288. Hence the drop in his batting average down to .243 last season.

Belt has seen his walk rate dip the last three seasons, and no one wants to see that. Belt's walk rate, BB/PA, was 11.4 percent in 2012 and the last two years the number has been 9.1 and 7.7 percent. Belt has also seen his strikeout rate be high enough that his career BB/K mark of 0.41 is just barely above the league average. Thanks to a lowered walk rate his walk-to-strikeout ratio has dipped the last two seasons (0.51, 0.42 and 0.28). 

POWER

Belt has 20+ homer power, though he's yet to display that at the big league level. While his career best was 17 dingers in 2013, Belt did jack the ball 12 times last season in just 61 games showing the power stroke that could send 25 balls into orbit.

Belt has a 40.6 percent fly ball rate for his career, above the 34-35 percent league average. He also lifted the ball more than ever in 2014 with a fly ball rate of 44 percent. In three of his four seasons the mark has been at least 41.3 percent.

Belt owns an 11.4 HR/F ratio for his career. The last two seasons though that number is higher at 12.8 percent. I would also be remiss if I didn't note that Isolated Power shows that his power stroke has certainly improved the past two campaigns with marks of .193 and .206 after a mark of just .160 from 2011-12.

There's also hope that not just the mechanical changes that Belt has made will help to increase his homer total, but also his daily food intake. This isn't Pablo Sandoval II we're talking about here, but apparently Belt's ideal of a complete meal would a cookie, a Bear claw an a Slurpee. OK, I might be exaggerating, but there's even a sandwich in San Francisco that's named after him - the Belt Melt - that is oozing with jalapeno's, macaroni, ham and bacon. “We’re working a lot on nutrition for me,” Belt said. “I’m not perfect for that. If it’s up to me, I’ll go to my favorite Tex-Mex restaurant. But it definitely helped. I’m noticing it in my workouts. I’m stronger now than I’ve ever been in my career.” Giants trainer Dave Groeshchner had this to say. It’s about eating habits and making better choices. Where you’re eating, what you’re eating... He made it a higher priority. He obviously put the work in. He looks good.”

The Baby Giraffe, Belt's nickname, will try to do less grazing this year and more fueling his body with a diet more reminiscent of a professional athlete than college sophomore. 

SPLITS

Belt doesn't seem to care a heck of a lot what type of arm is on the bump. This isn't a guy who is going to lose any at-bats to a platoon mate. Career marks follow.

vs lefty: .266/.330/.445 with a .179 Isolate Power & .332 BABIP
vs. righty: .269/.349/.448 with a .179 Isolate Power & .331 BABIP

Amazingly close are those numbers. 

Now, the same cannot be said for his work at home as the Giants home park has a cavernous right centerfield that cuts down lefty home run output until you hit the ball right down the line. As you can see from the graph to the lower right from ESPN, Belt doesn't hit many of his homers right down the line, and a couple of the long balls he hit last season wouldn't have been homers if they had been hit at AT & T park. The ballpark in San Francisco has also taken a lot from Belt's overall game though he's been able to use the big outfield to help his overall game.

Home: .280/.358/.450 one HR every 41.2 ABs
Away: .257/.332/.445 one HR every 23.4 ABs

And you don't want to, as a pitcher, let Belt pull the ball. In at-bats that have ended in a ball hit to the right side of the diamond Belt has hit a homer every 12.6 at-bats. He's also tossed up a 39.3 percent HR/F ratio. He's hit a homer every 46.6 at-bats on balls hit to centerfield and when he hits a ball to left it's a homer every 47.8 at-bats. Turn on that inside fastball young man. 

PLAYING TIME CONSIDERATIONS

According to Hank Schulman, here is the batting order for the Giants as of this writing: Pagan, Panik, Belt, Posey, Pence, McGehee, Aoki,Crawford and then the pitcher. Notice the man who is batting third in that lineup - Belt. Can't really be in a better spot hitting in front of Posey in the Giants lineup, and that will do nothing but boost the outlook of Belt. His best power stroke comes against the fastball, and he figures to see a good deal of those with Mr. Posey hitting behind him.

CONCLUSION

Belt will not cost you too much on draft day as there are easily 10, perhaps as many as 15 or more first basemen that will be taken ahead of him in most drafts (current NFBC data suggests he could fall even further). Belt has developed a nice stroke and as a result should be able to produce solid numbers. He will need to rediscover the walk and have his BABIP and line drive rates return to all-star levels for him to become the player many think he could be in 2015. 

10 team lg: Nothing more than a corner infield option here. Don't reach. If you miss out on him and end up with Eric Hosmer or Adam LaRoche, so be it. 

12 team lg: Still a corner infield option, one that will likely come at a decent cost with a potential return on investment of significant levels.

15 team lg: Could make an argument that he's a bottom tier starter at first but he'll make an even better weapon as that corner infield option. Investing in Belt in this format is advisable. 

NL-only: Finally a sure fire top-10 option. Hitting third in the Giants lineup in front of Posey, with a new offseason training regimen behind him, Belt appears primed for the best season of his career, one that will make him a fantastic roster addition in this format.