With the baseball season fast approaching and spring training upon us, fantasy owners are beginning to compile their rankings and projections for 2016. Sorting through established players and household names is one thing, but leagues are never won by big-named stars performing at their expected statistics. Instead, crowns are donned by the owners who were able to sift through the first 200 players selected and draft upside “deep sleepers” (ones who are able to greatly outperform their ADP and provide exceptional value to their owners). Which players qualify for that distinction this season? Read on and find out.

Player: Javier Baez

Team: Chicago Cubs

Age: 23

Position: 2B/OF

2015 Statistics: .289 AVG / .325 OBP / .733 OPS / 1 HR / 4 RBI / 1 SB in 76 Abs

Current ADP: 272 (Fantasy Pros)

Background

Javier Baez can be aptly summarized by the following piece of advice - be wary of the word “but.”

Baez has made great strides since his 2014 embarrassing stint in the major leagues, especially in terms of his ability to take a walk, but he still needs to improve his discipline at the plate.

Baez possesses a truly elite level of power for an infielder and has 30-plus home run upside, but his swing-happy nature will severely limit his .AVG and .OBP upside.

Starlin Castro was recently traded to the New York Yankees in the offseason which opened up the door for Baez, but the team then opted to sign Ben Zobrist, which demonstrated their lack of confidence in Baez.

In an attempt to get his bat into the lineup more often, the Cubs have begun to convert Baez into a super-utility player in 2016. This would have worked perfectly, but they also re-signed Dexter Fowler and added Jason Heyward, and have allowed youngster Kyle Schwarber playing time in the outfield as well.

Bottom line? Baez oozes upside, but it will truly take an injury, trade (or two) to make him an everyday player in this potent lineup.

Positives

1.) Talent typically wins out – Clearly, Baez holds more value in a keeper/dynasty format rather than a redraft league. There is little question that Zobrist is on the back-end of his career, and while he is still an above-average fielder capable of providing a moderate amount of power and steals, he is already 34 years old. Zobrist hasn’t hit more than 20 home runs since 2009, and his days of stealing more than 10 bags are behind him. That being said, Zobrist is a proven veteran who is as reliable as they come offensively. In terms of talent, Baez dwarfs Zobrist, and it isn’t close. While Baez is unlikely to ever produce a .270 plus .AVG like Zobrist, he has the potential for 30 plus home runs and 20 steals. Those kind of players don’t exactly “grow on trees,” as the expression goes. Especially in the second half of 2016, expect to see Baez accrue more playing time.

2.) Super-utility versatility – It was reported in mid-February that Baez had been participating in outfield drills at Cubs camp. This came as little surprise, since he had also begun playing outfield in Puerto Rico over the winter. Baez is athletic enough to slot in anywhere on the field, and the Cubs are well aware of his upside. Addison Russell dealt with groin and hamstring injuries in 2015, while center fielders Dexter Fowler and Shane Victorino aren’t known for being ironmen. Several injury-prone players are in front of him, and it would just take one to make Baez an everyday option. Additionally, when the Cubs participate in interleague games, expect to see Baez be used as the team’s designated hitter.

Negatives

1.) Poor plate discipline – Perhaps the single biggest reason for Baez being withheld from the lineup is his swing-happy nature. In 2014 over the course of 229 at-bats, Baez had a horrific 41.5 percent strikeout rate. While people anticipated that he would have his fair share of whiffs given the numbers which he had posted in the minor leagues (24.4 percent rate in 2012, 28.8 percent in 2013 and 30 percent in 2014 prior to his promotion), few thought the number would climb to nearly every other at bat. The good news is there is still hope on the horizon, and Baez has shown improvement. In his 80 plate appearances while filling in for spot-starts in 2015, Baez lowered his strikeout rate to 30 percent. Granted, this is still above what ownership would like to see, but it represents improvement.

2.) Injury concerns – Someone needs to teach Baez how to slide without getting himself hurt. In June of 2015 he managed to suffer a non-displaced fracture of his left ring finger while sliding head-first into second base (he subsequently missed nearly eight weeks and didn’t return until July 29). During spring training this year, he injured his left thumb while (again) sliding head-first. While he isn’t expected to miss more than a few games, Baez can’t afford to miss valuable at bats to demonstrate his improvement to Cubs brass.