For years, the mantra in fantasy baseball drafts has been to wait to select your starting pitchers, as pitching is deep, pitchers suffer more injuries, and pitching is too inconsistent to waste high draft picks on in non-auction leagues. I subscribed to that viewpoint, I will confess, but my experience is that those premises are no longer valid. Hitters get injured just as often as pitchers, there is plenty of inconsistency to go around in baseball that pitchers no longer have a lock on up and down seasons, and while I agree that if you are savvy enough to study starting pitchers, you can find gems in the later rounds, there is still plenty to like among the top 20-25 starters in any given season to make them a part of your draft or auction strategy. In fact, my preferred strategy is to see if perhaps a Clayton Kershaw, Madison Bumgarner, or Max Scherzer (those are my top three, but others could easily be included depending on your league setup) is available in the latter part of the first round or in the second round to provide my lock-down ace early on.
These articles that will be published prior to Opening Day, however, are not about the stud starting pitching options available in your drafts or auctions. What we are looking at are those very good options that for one reason or another are being ignored in early drafts and mock drafts. What sorts of hidden values are dropping below the 12th round in most drafts that you can snag for great value with an eye to dominating your league this season? Note: I am operating on the assumption you are drafting in a 12-team league, so all pitchers profiled here will be below the 144th pick.
I will be profiling one (or at most two) mid- to late-round options in the starting pitching realm on a bi-weekly basis (that is twice a week, not the alternate definition of every two weeks -- why is English so difficult and confusing?). If you have questions about any pitchers and their viability as a “sleeper” pick, hit me up at ia@fantasyalarm.com and I will do my best to provide some insight. Also, I am always available to answer starting pitching (or other fantasy baseball) questions all season long.
Drew Smyly – LHP – Tampa Bay Rays
2015 Stats: 5-2, 66.2 IP, 3.34 ERA, 77 K’s, 1.19 WHIP
Current ADP
Mock Draft Army ADP: 158.5 (based on current ADPs generated by Howard Bender’s Mock Draft Army results)
National Fantasy Baseball Championship (NFBC): 166.81
FSTA Draft on January 14th, 2016: Drafted 17th round (211th overall)
Availability
Smyly ended up in Tampa when Detroit traded for David Price in 2014 at the trade deadline. He had some success as a starter in Detroit prior to the trade, but was excelling in the bullpen when he was shipped off to Tampa. He is coming off a couple of DL stints and is therefore considered an “official” injury risk. Thus, his lower draft position despite his stellar performance at the end of 2015.
Upside
Smyly is a five-pitch starter, although his changeup needs some work to be an effective pitch. Expect the pitching coaches to focus on that, as Tampa Bay prefers its starters to be able to employ a changeup as a primary option on the mound. His fastball, while settling in at the low-90s, is effective as he has had success elevating the pitch. He features a plus curveball and an effective cutter to go with his other pitches. He is best suited with his arsenal of pitches to be a starter, and has been extremely effective against lefties, although you should not discount his ability to handle right-hander hitters, either. We need to discount his 2015 stats, as he was limited to just 12 starts after his injuries, but he did show an excellent 10.4 K/9 rate over the 66.2 innings he was able to pitch, and a superb 3.85 K:BB ratio as well.
Downside
The injury history is troublesome, as is his HR/9 ratio of 1.49 during his stint with Tampa Bay. Consider the homer rate to be a result of coming off an injury, and expect it to stabilize to his former rate of just over 1 HR/9 that he exhibited in Detroit as a starter. His FIP has bounced around during his major league career, and that is an issue, but expect his ERA to settle in at an acceptable 3.30 or so, with a nice sub 1.20 WHIP.
Summary
If you believe that he can pitch most or all of a season in the Tampa Bay rotation, he is a fine No. 3 starter. He offers strikeouts, and acceptable ERA with a more than acceptable WHIP. The injury bug could bite you, but that exists with all starting pitchers. He can be had when the fourth starters are coming off the board in your drafts, and will provide better production that a lot of those pitchers, if his arm holds up.