Stock Watch Risers

  • Masahiro Tanaka SP, NYY- Tanaka has rattled off three straight strong outings, allowing just three earned runs while striking out 22 over 21 innings of work.  Tanaka’s overall numbers are not pretty as he is just 7-7 with a 5.25 ERA but I considered him a Buy Low candidate a few weeks back and he certainly looks to be turning his season around.

  • Orlando Arcia SS, MIL-  The Brewers young shortstop has seemingly figured out major league pitching over the past week as he is hitting .560 with five runs, three home runs and five RBI over the last seven days.  On the year Arcia is hitting .295 with 33 runs, eight home runs, 28 RBI and five stolen bases.

  • Aaron Nola SP,  PHI- Nola is coming off of a strong June which saw him go 3-2 with a 3.24 ERA and 35 strikeouts over 33.1 innings.  His July got off to an even better start as he tossed seven shutout innings while striking out eight against the Pirates.  Nola is just 55-percent owned in standard league formats and is somebody worth taking a look at if you need pitching help.

Stock Watch Fallers

  • Trea Turner SS, WAS- Turner had been putting together a solid sophomore season, hitting .279 with 53 runs, seven home runs, 32 RBI and 35 stolen bases.  Unfortunately Turner has now landed on the disabled list after suffering a fracture to his right wrist.  There is currently no timetable for when Turner will be eligible to return which will serve as a major blow to his fantasy owners.

  • Jaime Garcia SP, ATL- Garcia had a stretch of five starts from May 21st to June 11th where he allowed just six earned runs over 36.1 innings, picking up a quality start in all five outings but the good times have quickly come to an end as Garcia has since allowed six earned runs in each of his last three starts.

  • Josh Donaldson 3B, TOR- Something has to be wrong with Donaldson as the Blue Jays slugger is just 6-for-48 (.125) with two runs, zero home runs, four RBI and one stolen base over the last 15 days.  Over the last seven days he is just 1-for-23.  As a first round pick fantasy owners are hoping he breaks out of this slump sooner rather than later.

Buy or Sell?

Buy

Danny Salazar SP, CLE

Injury and ineffectiveness are things that have plagued Salazar since entering the league but when he has been healthy he has shown flashes of dominance given his impressive strikeout rate.  2017 has again been a bit of a struggle for Salazar as he is just 3-5 with a 5.40 ERA over 12 games (10 starts).  Salazar is currently on the disabled list but is on a minor league rehab assignment and is working his way back into the Indians rotation.  While his shoulder injury may have been causing some of his poor play this season I also feel Salazar has been a victim of some bad luck and here is where I like his prospects for a second half turnaround.  Salazar’s control issues are an issue he will likely have throughout his career but he did himself no favors by owning a 4.58 BB/9 so far this season.  The free passes have come back to hurt him more than ever this season thanks to an incredibly high 22.4-percent HR/FB rate allowed this season. Fortunately I think that is a number that is sure to decline as his career HR/FB rate is just 12.9-percent.  Some positive things regarding Salazar would be his impressive 12.6 K/9 which would rank him among the league leaders in that category as well as his 3.57 xFIP and 3.75 SIERA which indicate that he has pitched better than his 5.40 ERA would indicate this season.  Salazar could likely be had on the cheap if an owner has him stashed on his DL but he is also floating around some free agent pools so check there and pick him up if he is available.

Sell

Jason Vargas SP, KC

I just refuse to believe in Jason Vargas.  I understand that we are approaching the All-Star break and the man is an All-Star, having gone 12-3 with a 2.22 ERA over 16 starts to this point in the season but he has never been this level of dominant at any point in his career and at 34 years old it just seems unrealistic that he can keep it going.  First, Vargas does not throw hard whatsoever with his average fastball velocity sitting around 86 MPH this season.  Now pitchers have been successful without needing a mid-90s fastball in the past and Vargas himself never really threw that hard but at some point major league hitters will start making better contact on a mid-80’s fastball.  Vargas has been fortunate to keep the ball in the ballpark this season as he owns a miniscule 6.2-percent HR/FB rate.  Comparing his current ERA of 2.22 to his FIP, xFIP and SIERA you will find that his ERA is much lower.  Vargas owns a 3.48 FIP, 4.72 xFIP and a 4.62 SIERA.  The 3.48 FIP is certainly fine and fantasy owners could live with Vargas sitting around a mid-3 ERA but the other two numbers show that potential disaster is looming if some of the good fortune Vargas has maintained in the first half of the season heads in a different direction following the All-Star break.  I would look to sell high as I just don’t see Vargas as somebody who is the Cy Young caliber pitcher that his overall numbers have him looking like.