Stock Watch Risers

  • Devon Travis 2B, TOR- I was high on Travis coming into this season and I wrote about him as part of my Deep Sleeper Series during the offseason but a horrid April which saw him hit just .130 with five runs, one home run, four RBI and two stolen bases cost him his leadoff spot and saw many owners cut bait.  For those who held onto Travis they have been handsomely rewarded as he has completely turned his season around by hitting .380 with 16 runs, three home runs, 17 RBI and two stolen bases over the month of May.  Travis is still hitting at the bottom of the Blue Jays lineup but with Kevin Pillar struggling at the leadoff spot that place could soon be Travis’ again.

  • Adam Wainwright SP, STL- I will admit I was one of the people claiming the end of Adam Wainwright after we saw him finish April with a 6.12 ERA over five starts.  But since the end of April Waino has looked like a completely different pitcher, going 3-0 with a 2.64 ERA over the month of May.  Overall on the year Wainwright is 5-3 with a 4.20 ERA while striking out 48 over 55.2 innings.  A deeper look into the numbers will show that while Wainwright has a 4.20 ERA his FIP of 3.42 indicates he has had some tough luck this season which appears to now be correcting itself.

  • Koda Glover RP, WAS- To be honest the closer’s job should have been Glover’s from the get go this season but the Nationals decided to go with Blake Treinen and then a committee of Glover and Shawn Kelley before injuries to all of them saw Matt Albers take a turn at closer for a bit and now the job is once again Glover’s.  Glover has notched four saves in his last five appearances and has not allowed an earned run over his last eight games.

Stock Watch Fallers

  • Mike Trout OF, LAA- Trout owners are in mourning as the consensus No.1 overall pick suffered a torn UCL ligament in his thumb which will require surgery and cost him up to eight weeks.  At the time of his injury Trout was hitting .337 with 36 runs, 16 home runs, 36 RBI and 10 stolen bases.

  • Eric Thames OF, MIL- Oh how the mighty have fallen.  In the month of April Thames hit .345 with 28 runs, 11 home runs, 19 RBI and an OPS of 1.276 which had many anointing him the early MVP favorite.  Unfortunately the clock struck midnight on this cinderella once May rolled around as Thames is hitting just .186 with 11 runs, two home runs, seven RBI and an OPS of .643.  Is Thames this bad? No, I don’t think so but he also is not the April version of himself.  Fantasy owners should look for something closer to the middle  as the season rolls on.

  • Danny Duffy SP, KC- Duffy owners awoke to bad news on Monday with word that the Royals pitcher suffered a Grade 1 oblique strain that will force him to miss the next 6-to-8 weeks.  At the time of the injury Duffy was 4-4 with a 3.54 ERA while having struck out 54 over 68.2 innings.

Buy or Sell?

Edwin Encarnacion 1B, CLE

Encarnacion signed a 3-year/$60 million dollar contract with the Indians this offseason after five straight seasons with the Blue Jays where he was among the league's most feared power hitters.  Edwin got off to a slow start in Cleveland, hitting just .200 with nine runs, four home runs, nine RBI and an OPS of .696 over the month of April.  May has a been a bit better as he is hitting .250 with 13 runs, six home runs, 12 RBI and an OPS of .827 this month.  While those numbers are better they are still not up to par with what Edwin is capable of producing which is why I feel now is the time to buy low from a frustrated fantasy owner who likely used a second round pick on him.  His overall numbers of .226 with 22 runs, 10 home runs, 21 RBI and an IPS of .764 leaves plenty to be desired when there are guys sitting on the waiver wire like Justin Smoak and Logan Morrison who are outproducing him.  A deeper look into Edwin’s stats however show that an uptick is on the horizon as Edwin currently has his best hard contact rate of his career at 40.5-percent and the best HR/FB rate of his career at 24.4-percent despite the fact that he is hitting the fewest fly balls of his career at just 33.9-percent.  He has supplemented the loss in fly balls with line drives which is at it’s highest rate of his career at 25.6-percent.  At some point those line drivers will turn back into fly balls and as long as that hard contact rate stays the same I would expect the home runs to come in bunches.  Remember, this is a player who just a few years ago had hit 16 home runs in a single month.  Buy now on Edwin before it is too late.

Avisail Garcia OF, CWS

At just 25 years old it is looking like Avisail Garcia is in the midst of a career year as the White Sox outfielder is hitting .326 with 26 runs, eight home runs, 37 RBI and an OPS of .918.  Garcia is a career .266 hitter with a career OPS of .720 and he has never hit more than 13 home runs in a single season so his production is certainly on pace to be his best season ever.  A deeper look into Garcia’s start however does show some signs of regression.  First off Garcia owns a .383 BABIP which is a number nearly 60 point higher than his career mark.  Regression is certain to come in the BABIP department which will result in a drop in batting average along with the rest of his production.  In the home run department Garcia currently owns a 20-percent HR/FB rate despite the fact that his hard contact percentage has dropped from his 2016 mark.  Now, to be fair, Garcia has increased his FB rate to 28.4-percent but it seems unlikely that drop in hard contact will continue to result in a 20-percent HR/FB ratio.  Garcia is a solid talent and fantasy owners have expected a breakout season from him since he was being compared to Miguel Cabrera during his days with the Tigers but I am not buying that breakout fully coming this season.