For once, some WNBA news happened before I published a team preview. After big news came out following my Dream, Sky and Aces Team Previews, we got the rest of the Gabby Williams news before this article could go up. That isn’t to say we won’t get more big news in the near future, but at least we can analyze the Los Angeles Sparks’s 2021 prospects with the knowledge that they will not have Gabby Williams this season.
2020 Results
15-7 Record, 3rd in the league. Lost to the Connecticut Sparks in the second round of the playoffs.
Offseason Moves
Re-signed Brittney Sykes
Signed free agent Amanda Zahui B
Signed free agent Erica Wheeler
Signed Bria Holmes to a Training Camp Contract
Free-agent Candace Parker signed with the Chicago Sky
Free-agent Chelsea Gray signed with the Las Vegas Aces
Free-agent Riquna Williams signed with the Las Vegas Aces
Signed Seimone Augustus to a Training Camp Contract
Re-signed Chiney Ogwumike
Signed Nneka Ogwumike to a Core Contract
Signed Nia Coffey to a Training Camp Contract
Waived Marie Gulich
Waived Tierra Ruffin-Pratt
Traded Leonie Fiebich and Stephanie Watts to Chicago for Gabby Williams.
Draft Results
The Sparks traded their 2022 first-round draft pick to Dallas for the 7th pick in the 2021 draft and a 2022 2nd round pick from Chicago. They used that pick to select Jasmine Walker form Alabama. They used their own pick (10th overall) on Stephanie Watts and drafted Arella Guirantes in the second round.
We will discuss Watts more below, but the Sparks reportedly wanted to shore up their wing depth in the draft, and they appear to have done that by drafting Walker and Guirantes. It is not guaranteed one or both of them will make the team, but both are likely capable of contributing in the league. Guirantes slipping to the end of the second round was arguably the most surprising development of the night, as most mock drafts had her going in the first round. I’m not sure the trade was necessary, especially since I think there is a decent chance the pick Los Angeles sent to Dallas winds up being higher than seven, but there is no arguing with those two draft picks.
Offseason Breakdown
No team has had as much turnover as the Sparks, as they lost two of their best players an their top scorer off the bench but they replaced them with some solid veterans, including two players who opted out of the wubble. Basically, they replaced Candace Parker, Chelsea Gray and Riquna Williams with Chiney Ogwumike, Kristi Toliver, Amanda Zahui B and Jasmine Walker. The Sparks should be bigger and deeper, though I think their starting lineup will be weaker. The Sparks could find that they miss the scoring and creativity of the players they lost.
I don’t love the trade for the seventh pick in the draft, especially considering Dallas pretty much had to trade at least one of their picks. Perhaps Dallas had another offer that the Sparks had to beat, but I don’t think this team is good enough to be giving up unprotected picks for the seventh pick in the draft.
On the other hand, I love the trade for Gabby Williams. I think there is pretty compelling evidence that Sky head coach James Wade had no idea how to get the best out of Gabby Williams. I don’t trust Derek Fisher to be any better, but with Williams still suspended for 2021 due to her commitment to the French National Team, there is a decent chance Fisher won't be the one coaching Williams.
I don’t want to read too much into Williams winning Euroleague Defensive Player of the Year and finishing on the All-Euroleague First Team, but I think it at least shows the two-way potential she demonstrated at UConn still exists. The Sparks are awfully thin on the wing, but at least they know that will be less of an issue in 2022.
For 2021, I’m not sure this team has enough ball handling or playmaking, but they have a deep frontcourt and one of the best shooters in the history of the league. They should be a playoff team, and thus have a chance to contend, but I would have liked their offseason much better if they had replaced Derek Fisher.
Projected Starting 5
- PG Erica Wheeler
- SG Kristi Toliver
- SF Brittney Sykes
- PF Nneka Ogwumike
- C Amanda Zahui B
I like this team even less after I tried to put together its starting five. I like the Gabby Williams trade even more, but Williams will miss the season for EuroBasket. She could be the team’s starting small forward next season, but I have no idea what they are going to do at that position until then.
I think the most likely option is for the Sparks to play a three-guard lineup with all three of their veterans. Derek Fisher started three guards in the Sparks’ first preseason game, with Te’a Cooper taking the plays of Kristi Toliver. Cooper could stay in the lineup when Toliver returns, but I think Erica Wheeler will get the first shot at starting. Wheeler was pretty terrible after winning All-Star Game MVP in 2019, but I still think she will get a shot to start. Indiana has been a pretty terrible organization the last couple of years, and I think it is certainly possible Wheeler will be more consistent now that she has escaped.
While Wheeler’s starting spot is up for debate, I think Kristi Toliver and Brittney Sykes are locked in. The Sparks need Toliver’s shooting, and while at 34 years old she could probably start coming off the bench, this team isn’t good enough to allow her to do that. Toliver has started every game she has played since 2014, and I expect that streak to continue this season barring injury.
Brittney Sykes has started nearly 60-percent of the games she has played, including last season with Los Angeles. She did lose her starting spot to Riquna Williams down the stretch, but with Williams gone, I think Sykes will start the season in the starting lineup.
The other locked-in starter is Nneka Ogwumike. She is unquestionably this team’s best player, and she will likely play all the minutes she can handle. The most interesting question for this team is who starts and plays the most minutes next to her. Chiney Ogwumike has mostly started in her career, but she came off the bench for nearly half of her games when last she played in 2019. Amanda Zahui B has been a starter the last two seasons in New York, though she only started one game in her first four seasons in the league. Zahui B has a little more size, and I think Derek Fisher is comfortable bringing Chiney Ogwumike off the bench. That being said, in 2019 the Sparks had a 10.1 net rating with both Ogwumikes on the floor. When Nneka played without Chiney, the Sparks had a 3.3 net rating, which was surprisingly the same as when they both sat. When Chiney played without Nneka, Los Angeles was a disastrous -6.6. I don’t think this team will be as good with both Nneka and Chiney off the floor, but I think Zahui B can keep them afloat in those minutes. With how well they played together, I think I would start them both and try to maximize those minutes. Really, though, this is probably a case of having no wrong answers.
With that in mind, I wonder if Fisher would consider starting Zahui B, Chiney Ogwumike and Nneka Ogwumike together. Zahui B can space out to the three-point line and so can Nneka, though she really only shot a high volume on three in 2019. That lineup would struggle to defend small forwards, but that may be the case no matter who plays the three.
If it were up to me, I think I would start Jasmine Walker alongside Toliver, Sykes, Nneka and Chiney. At 6’3” Walker provides plenty of size, and she is arguably the best shooter in this rookie class. With Walker and Toliver spacing the floor for Los Angeles’s bigs, you have the makings of a pretty potent offense. Sydney Wiese and Bria Holmes are also capable of starting, but I doubt that will happen very often when everyone is healthy.
2021 Outlook
I just don’t know if this team has enough talent in the backcourt to contend. Kristi Toliver is a great shooter, but I’m not sure how much else she brings to the table at this point. Brittney Sykes and Sydney Wiese are solid. Erica Wheeler has been an above-average WNBA player for exactly half of one season. Te’a Cooper had a promising rookie season, but how much are we really expecting from someone drafted in the middle of the second round in 2020?
I hate to say this when we don’t know for certain if either player will make the team, but I think this season could hinge on if Jasmine Walker and Arella Guirantes can contribute right away. Walker could fill a huge need at the three and would allow the rest of the roster to play at their optimal positions. That would also shore up the bench, which looks like one of the weakest in the league, especially among playoff teams.
The Sparks were ninth in rebounding rate last season, which seems impossible considering Candace Parker led the league in rebounds per game. This team has to be better than that on the boards, but I think they will be. Losing Candace Parker will hurt, but Amanda Zahui B was eighth last season in rebounds per game, and Chiney was 32nd in the league in rebounding rate in 2019. Those two, also with Nneka Ogwumike, Bria Holmes, Nia Coffey and Kristine Anigwe should win the rebounding battle most nights.
Another possible area of improvement is their assist-to-turnover ratio. The Sparks ranked fifth last season, but they could be even better after swapping Chelsea Gray for Kristi Toliver. Toliver was fifth in assist-to-turnover ratio in 2019, while Gray ranked 27th in that stat last season. I think the Sparks will have a harder time scoring with Gray, Parker and Riquna Williams gone but if they can rebound and protect the ball better, they could still come out ahead.
Betting Outlook
For the life of me, I don’t understand why the Sparks are +550 to win the WNBA title. They are certainly one of the eight teams I expect to make the playoffs, but I would be pretty surprised if they get a first-round bye. I think Seattle, Las Vegas and Chicago are all better than the Sparks, and I think Minnesota and Washington probably are, too. I think the Sparks probably belong with the Mercury and Sun at the bottom of the playoff tier.
Fantasy Outlook
Nneka Ogwumike averaged 23.8 fantasy points per game last season, the only time in her nine-year WNBA career she averaged fewer than 30 FPPG. Nneka turns 31 in July and I refuse to believe she is suddenly washed up. I think she will bounce back with a vengeance and will be a very nice fantasy value early on.
Her frontcourt-mates are more difficult to figure out. Chiney Ogwumike averaged 31.7 fppg in 14 starts and 13.7 fppg in 18 games off the bench in 2019. I doubt her splits will be quite so drastic in 2021, but she is probably a nice value if she starts.
I was a bit surprised to see Amanda Zahui B averaged roughly the same number of fantasy points in 2020 as in 2019. I thought she was significantly better in 2020 with Tina Charles gone, but the numbers do not bear that out. That makes me think Zahui B will still be solid for fantasy even if she loses some playing time to Nneka and Chiney, but I think she will mostly be a cash play, especially if she comes off the bench.
Unless we get a surprise starter, I won’t be in a hurry to play any of Los Angeles’s backcourt options. Brittney Sykes isn’t terribly efficient and won’t be better than the fourth option on offense most nights.
The same can be said for Erica Wheeler, though I am willing to be proven wrong if she returns to her early 2019 form. I'm also willing to be wrong about T'ea Cooper. Cooper is in her second season and thus has some upside the rest of the guard rotation cannot really match. I want to see it before I'll believe it, but if Cooper shows signs of growth early on, I will be ready to pounce.
The problem with Jasmine Walker, if there is one, is that she will be on everyone’s radar following her 23-point effort in the Sparks’ preseason game against Las Vegas. Walker won’t shoot 7-11 on threes very often, but that won’t stop us from playing her for DFS if she starts or looks like she is assured a spot in the rotation. Whoever starts at the three will be worth watching, but Walker would be the most exciting of the available options.
Finally, I’m not sure where there is to say about Kristi Toliver, but we have to mention her. She is a bit risky at her age and coming off a missed season, but she has been remarkably consistent the last 10 years. We pretty much know what we are getting, which is pretty good. One thing to keep an eye on; Toliver has shot 36-percent or less from three in three consecutive seasons. She shot worse than 38-percent just once in her first eight seasons. Toliver has compensated by shooting better on twos, but now that she’s out of Washington, I don’t know how many easy twos she is going to get.