UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy takes place this Saturday live from the UFC Apex. The card kicks off with the Prelims at 4:00PM EST on ESPN+, followed by the Main Card at 7:00 PM EST on ESPN+.

The main event this week features Edson Barboza, a man with one of the best spinning wheel kick KO’s you will ever see, vs. the undefeated Lerone Murphy. The Co-Main Event features Khaos Williams and his huge power, against the all-action Carlston Harris.

Discover my UFC DFS picks, betting lines, statistics, forecasts, and analysis for the entire fight card below. You can also reach out to me on Discord or Twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS. 

Now, let's dive into the top MMA DFS picks and strategies for this Saturday's event. Wishing you the best of luck with your UFC daily fantasy lineups!

DFS Picks, Playbook & DraftKings UFC Lineup Advice: UFC Fight Night, Barboza vs. Murphy

Main Event

A high-level lightweight brawl headlines the card this week with two fighters with contrasting styles. Barboza throws with a ton of power, and he can land a lot of volume if his opponent is willing to exchange but that rarely happens as most of his opponents try to take him down. Murphy is a low volume fighter who does occasionally mix in wrestling, but it isn't something I want to bank on. If this stays standing, I think Barboza does enough to win the fight, but if Murphy decides he wants to wrestle he should be able to mix in a few takedowns. Both are playable on DraftKings since it's a five-round fight, but I'm not going all in on this as a low volume 3rd/4th Round KO could score around 80 which wouldn't be enough to hit the optimal.

Expensive Fighters

Nolan has good power and in Martinez's two fights in the UFC including his Contender Series fight he was knocked down in both of them. Nolan is coming off a tough loss to Nicolas Motta but if Motta has anything it is power, and he got caught on that night. There isn't a trusty veteran in the high-priced range this week, so we have to go with some inexperienced fighters and I'm backing Nolan.

Sy has a mix of quick KOs, and some submission wins so while I don't trust $9,600 priced fighters making their debut, he is well rounded from what I've seen. Tokkos was KO'd on the "Road to the UFC" tournament and then took some odd fights against a 1-7 fighter, and a 19-10 fighter that ended in his opponent getting injured and now he finds himself stepping up on short notice. Sy is going to have a 9-inch reach advantage, so my only concern is he tries to stay on the outside landing jabs, but I do think he eventually finishes this fight by KO.

Abus is a problem for anyone in the first round, and Alves is at the point of his career where he only has 7 minutes of cardio. Abus should be able to control the first round like he did against Sean Strickland and when it comes to the later parts of the fight, I think he has the better gas tank as well. I'm betting Abus to get it done in under 1.5 rounds and think he's a great play at his price.

Salvador doesn't have much power or wrestling, and this is a major step back for Yanez. Yanez should be able to outwork him and really turn it on him late. Yanez has only had one fight in the UFC go to decision so the winner here should score well, I just think he is less likely than some of the other high-priced fighters to get the Round 1 KO, but I do think he gets it done inside the distance on Saturday.

There are three female fights within the higher priced range this week which makes it tough because some of them are lined massively towards going to decision, but this isn't one of them. Gatto has two KO wins in the UFC and two decision losses, but I don't really think she has that great of power. I'm not going to be prioritizing the WMMA fights this week, but Gatto does have decent inside the distance odds so even if I don't see it happening, someone making these lines does so I have to respect it.

Mid-Range Fighters

I'm rating Rodriguez high this week strictly for one reason and that is Carnelosi 8% takedown defense rate. Carnelosi gets up from takedowns, but she can't stop them so Rodriguez landing 4-5 takedowns in a close 29-28 fight is well within the range of outcomes. If Rodriguez lands 5 takedowns and gets 5 minutes of control time, she would only need 65 significant strikes to get to that 90pt range in a decision so she is playable even at a bad Inside the Distance line. I don't want too much of her, but this range is tough this week and she has a clear upside which most of the other fighters don't have.

Gorimbo has a ton of power but sometimes he is overly patient. He has stated this week he wants to be more aggressive and get a highlight KO so if he's true to his word I could see him KOing Brahimaj early.

Williams has a ton of power, and he has decent enough cardio to allow him to land 80+ significant strikes in some of his fights, but his ground game is lacking. If Harris gets him down, he's in trouble, but I see Williams getting the KO. Both of these fighters have upside but I'm backing Williams.

Hill at her best can land 120 significant strikes in a three round fight and mix in a takedown, and while I don't think that is enough to hit the optimal lineup in a decision victory this card offers a lot of lower-level fights that could produce low scores. I've won some GPPs on Hill since she always comes in low owned, and I'll probably take a few stabs this week as well.

Harris has the wrestling upside here, but he really only uses it when the advantage is clear, so we don't see it very often. If this fight gets down Harris by submission is fully in play, but Williams is pretty strong so I think he should be able to get up from the takedowns. Both of these fighters can produce highlights, and I expect one of them to get it done with a high score this weekend.

Brahimaj is a high level BJJ practitioner, but his wrestling isn't great. Gorimbo has struggled to keep the fight standing and if he can't stay off of his back, he is going to be in trouble here. Brahimaj doesn't have a great gas tank, so he is either going to get the win early or he won't get it at all. He also has a better ITD line than anyone else in this range outside of Williams, so I expect him to get some ownership.

I don't like Rodrigues going to a new weight class when he traditionally gassed out, and if Heili is anything it is durable. Heili probably loses the first round, but he keeps coming forward and won't quit on himself during a fight. I think he has enough skills to get a late finish or win rounds 2/3 for the decision victory.

Paydown Fighters

Carnelossi is an absolute unit so it'll be interesting to see if she can just outmuscle Rodriguez. She won't win by the finish, but I do actually think she gets the win this week and at $7,400 any win is a good win even if it only scores 65-70 pts.

Demopoulos somehow edges out decisions on judges’ scorecards that she has no business winning when you look at the stats and honestly some would say that is a skill. She has no problem throwing up offense off of her back and is always marching forward so her fights are pretty entertaining. Even in a loss she probably scores 20+ points so she won't kill your lineups.

Alves has one round of cardio and if he doesn't get it done early, he won't win. I think Abus should be an even bigger favorite, but Warlley has the upside that most of these other dogs don’t, so I have to rank him pretty high this week since his ITD is the best of anyone priced under $7,500.

Vidal probably gets taken down and dominated, but Gatto isn't a world beater by any stretch so on the feet this should be close. If Vidal keeps it standing, she has as good of a chance as any dog to win, but I think that'll be easier said than done. 

Tuco has power, but I think he is probably overmatched here, especially on short notice. He fights out of Kill Cliff FC, so he has a good gym behind him, and Sy is completely unproven in the UFC so maybe he catches lightning in a bottle here and KOs Sy but I'm not banking on it.

Martinez is my lowest rated fighter this week, and while I normally like to target against fighters with limited UFC experience, I think Martinez is just behind everywhere this fight goes. He doesn't have power to end the fight either and if you can't get Nolan's respect early, he is just going to march you down.

Sample UFC Fight Night DFS Lineup

Live Dogs

Barboza, Harris, Carnelossi, Alatengheili

Barboza vs. Murphy UFC Fight Night Picks & Stats