UFC Fight Night DFS Picks & Playbook: MMA Strategy & Cheat Sheet
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 takes place this Saturday live from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas Nevada. The card kicks off with the Prelims at 3:00PM EST on ESPN+, followed by the Main Card at 6:00 PM on ESPN+.
The Main Event features a rematch between two top 15 fighters in the Middleweight division as Brandon Allen takes on “The Action Man” Chris Curtis. Our co-main event features Alexander Hernandez looking to make a statement against veteran Damon “The Leach” Jackson.
Check out all the latest UFC odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS.
Now let's look at some UFC DFS picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
DFS Picks, Playbook & DraftKings UFC Lineup Advice: UFC Fight Night, Allen vs. Curtis 2
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Brendan Allen vs. Chris Curtis | 8900/7300 | - | Stackability: Low | -218/ -200 | 130./275. |
| A rematch from years ago, but this time the fighters are trending in opposite directions. Curtis handled Allen the first time they met but Allen was only 24 at the time and has made major improvements since. Curtis is the more technical striker and can go five rounds all day, Allen is much more talented in his submission skills but is going to struggle to get Curtis down. If Allen gets an early takedown, he probably wins the fight, but it'll be tough as Curtis has always had incredible takedown defense. I'll have some of both of these guys in my lineup, but I think Allen is making enough improvements and gets it done here. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Alex Morono | 9200 | Court McGee | Somewhat-Safe | -290 | 110. |
| I'm most confident in Morono to win out of the high-priced fighters, but he doesn't have as high of a ceiling. McGee hasn't been as durable as in years past so he could be coming to an end here and if that is the case Morono throws more than enough volume and power to put him away. | |||||
| Valter Walker | 9400 | Lukasz Brzeski | Somewhat-Safe | -238 | 100. |
| Walker is the brother of UFC veteran Johnny Walker, but he is only 26 years old which is super young for a Heavy Weight. He has way more talent than Brzeski and if this fight takes place in 5 years, he would be -500. I just don't love trusting young inexperienced heavy weights, but he has wrestling, cardio, and probably more power so he should get it done. | |||||
| Ignacio Bahamondes | 9100 | Christos Giagos | Somewhat-Safe | -340 | -120 |
| Bahamondes needs to get a KO to pay off his price tag, and with the way Giagos fights I expect it to happen. Giagos is going to pressure forward but has only one round of real cardio before he gets tired. Bahamondes is 6'3 which is gigantic for 155lbs so he should be able to hit Giagos and avoid anything coming back. At some point Giagos is going to overextend and get dropped. | |||||
| Melissa Mullins | 9300 | Nora Cornolle | Moderate | -340 | +250 |
| If anyone is getting the finish in this fight it is Mullins (used to be named Dixon in her UFC debut). Cornolle really struggled to stop takedowns in her debut so Mullins could take advantage of that. For the high-priced fighters, she is strictly a contrarian play as I doubt, she gets much ownership at +250 ITD. | |||||
| Charlie Campbell | 9000 | Trevor Peek | Moderate | -180 | -115 |
| Campbell gets the DraftKings gold matchup of the high-priced range. He isn't as big of a favorite as the other high-priced fighters, but he is more likely to win inside the distance than most of them. Peek loves to pressure forward, and his defense totally relies on his chin holding up. Campbell is much more technical and a better fighter all around, but this comes down to if his chin can hold up. On Contender Series he was dominating his opponent, and one clean counter punch later he was KOd. I think he wins this fight, I'm betting Campbell but just beware that at any moment his chin could fail him. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Alexander Hernandez | 8700 | Damon Jackson | Moderate | -205 | 100. |
| I really like Alexander Hernandez this week, which should be a major red flag as I perpetually pick against him. He's much more physical, has all the tools to win this fight and he can break Jackson early with his wrestling or power. I think he'll have more success keeping the fight standing since Jackson does have decent submission skills. | |||||
| Victor Hugo | 8200 | Pedro Falcao | Moderate | -135 | #N/A |
| Hugo is nicknamed "striker”, but he really is more of a submission specialist. He doesn't throw much volume from what I've seen, and if best path to getting on the optimal lineup is a submission early on in the fight. I don't love the mid-range favorites this week so the slight odds value at 8200 is enough for me to back him. | |||||
| Chepe Mariscal | 7900 | Morgan Charriere | Somewhat-Risky | 105 | |
| I am a big Chepe Mariscal support, and I think he has huge advantages here outside of the technical striking/power. Charriere is very talented, but he sometimes holds his punches too long waiting for the perfect shot instead of throwing volume and winning rounds. Chepe on the other hand trains at elevation with Justin Gaethje and now also Trevor Peek so he loves firefights. I think he gets the win, and of the two fighters I don't think Charriere scores well unless he KOs Chepe which is a tall task. | |||||
| Germaine de Randamie | 7600 | Norma Dumont | Somewhat-Risky | 114 | 350. |
| Germaine was a title challenger against Amanda Nunes and now faces someone with no finishing ability, so I expect Germaine to be able to get her offense off. As long as this stays standing Germaine can dominate the striking exchanges, and if anyone in this fight is going to score well, I'm thinking it is GDR. She is older and is coming off of an injury and having a baby, but if this fight was three years ago before the injury and baby, she would be a -300 favorite. | |||||
| Cynthia Calvillo | 7800 | Piera Rodriguez | Somewhat-Risky | 110 | 500. |
| I'm picking a lot of small underdogs this week, but I feel like we are getting a lot of the back class with them. Calvillo is coming off of back-to-back split decision losses where she landed nearly 100 significant strikes and multiple takedowns and it was against Nina Nunes who at her peak was top 5 in the division, and Loopy Godinez who is in the current top 15. I think she wins this fight close to 60% of the time, and while it is hard to back someone who quit on the stool three fights back, I think Calvillo gets it done this week. | |||||
| Dylan Budka | 8500 | Cesar Almeida | Somewhat-Risky | -148 | 250. |
| I don't know what to do with Budka. He is fighting Almeida who has a win over Alex Pereira in kickboxing but is way past his prime and Budka is clearly the better wrestler. My issue here is Budka throws no volume, and Almeida is also more of a decision fighter. I think Budka gets the win, but I'm not confident either way and he's coming off of a fight where he attempted 33 significant strikes so if it gets to decision this fight probably is a dud. | |||||
| Morgan Charriere | 8300 | Chepe Mariscal | Risky | -125 | 250. |
| Charriere has a bunch of power, but Chepe is hard to put away. I think he is worth a shot if you are making multiple lineups since Chepe might bring out the fight in him, but I'm not overly confident he wins this fight and if the fight is high paced, I don't know if he can go the distance. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Trevor Peek | 7200 | Charlie Campbell | Somewhat-Risky | 150 | 200. |
| I have to put Peek high up solely for his upside. He is +200 to win inside the distance which is almost the same as his odds to win overall. He really is KO or bust, but he has a legit chance to win by KO. If I'm making 10 lineups, I'm finding a way to get him into 3 and probably getting Campbell in 4-5. | |||||
| Damon Jackson | 7500 | Alexander Hernandez | Somewhat-Risky | 170 | 330. |
| Jackson has better submission skills than Hernandez so if he can weather the early storm, he probably wins the fight. He does struggle with fighters who can overwhelm him with their physicality so if he does win, I think it'll be a late R2 or 3 submissions. | |||||
| Dan Argueta | 7400 | Jean Matsumoto | Risky | 136 | 500. |
| Argueta looked great two fights ago against Ronnie Lawrence and if he could bring that pressure, he could control this fight. Matsumoto is the better striker, but if Argueta has his cardio with him (which weirdly is hit or miss) he has a legitimate chance to win this fight while landing 50 significant strikes and 3-4 takedowns. | |||||
| Christos Giagos | 7100 | Ignacio Bahamondes | Risky | 270 | 550. |
| Giagos is going to bring the fight early, but I think he is in way over his head here. He has a chance at a high score, but if he doesn't get the early finish, he probably gets outpointed or eventually KOd. | |||||
| Court McGee | 7000 | Alex Morono | Risky | 235 | 900. |
| A few years ago, McGee would have been in this fight, but he is at a point where he doesn't have the cast iron durability and Morono is a bad matchup for him since he has good cardio. I'm probably fading McGee in my lineups. | |||||
| Nora Cornolle | 6900 | Melissa Mullins | Risky | 270 | #N/A |
| Cornolle was taken down 5 times by Joselyn Edwards which is a terrible look, and she is 34 years old in only her second UFC fight, so she isn't a prospect that I expect to see improvements from. I think Mullins gets the fight to the ground at some point and eventually KOs her. | |||||
| Lukasz Brzeski | 6800 | Valter Walker | Risky | 195 | 400. |
| Brzeski is probably someone I should be higher on, but I really think he is going to struggle. He was outwrestled by Karl Williams giving up 8 takedowns, and eventually Walker is just going to wear him out. | |||||
| Fernie Garcia | #N/A | #N/A | Risky | #N/A | #N/A |
| This could come back to bite me here since Hiestand is still so young so not showing up under the big lights is something that could happen, but I'll be fading Garcia in my lineups since I think his odds compared to his price don't make sense and Brady has a hell of a chin on him. Even if Brady does gas and Fernie finds the late finish he likely is getting controlled for too long of the early rounds to make it worth the lineup spot. | |||||
Sample UFC Fight Night DFS Lineup
Allen vs. Curtis UFC Fight Night Picks & Stats
Brendan Allen | vs. | Chris Curtis |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 23-5-0 | Record | Record: 31-10-0 (1 NC) |
5 | Knockouts | 17 |
14 | Subs | 1 |
-218 | Vegas Odds | -200 |
Alexander Hernandez | vs. | Damon Jackson |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 14-7-0 | Record | Record: 22-6-1 (1 NC) |
6 | Knockouts | 4 |
2 | Subs | 15 |
-205 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
Morgan Charriere | vs. | Chepe Mariscal |
$8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
| Record: 19-9-1 | Record | Record: 15-6-1 |
11 | Knockouts | 7 |
3 | Subs | 3 |
-125 | Vegas Odds | 105 |
Ignacio Bahamondes | vs. | Christos Giagos |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 14-5-0 | Record | Record: 20-11-0 |
9 | Knockouts | 8 |
1 | Subs | 4 |
-340 | Vegas Odds | 270 |
Valter Walker | vs. | Lukasz Brzeski |
$9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 11-0-0 | Record | Record: 8-4-1 (1 NC) |
6 | Knockouts | 5 |
1 | Subs | 2 |
-238 | Vegas Odds | 195 |
0 | ||
Trevor Peek | vs. | Charlie Campbell |
$7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
| Record: 9-1-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 8-2-0 |
8 | Knockouts | 6 |
0 | Subs | 0 |
150 | Vegas Odds | -180 |
Court McGee | vs. | Alex Morono |
$7,000 | DFS Salary | $9,200 |
| Record: 22-12-0 | Record | Record: 23-9-0 (1 NC) |
5 | Knockouts | 4 |
5 | Subs | 15 |
235 | Vegas Odds | -290 |
Norma Dumont | vs. | Germaine de Randamie |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
| Record: 10-2-0 | Record | Record: 10-4-0 |
0 | Knockouts | 4 |
2 | Subs | 1 |
-135 | Vegas Odds | 114 |
Pedro Falcao | vs. | Victor Hugo |
$8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
| Record: 16-3-0 | Record | Record: 24-4-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 7 |
5 | Subs | 10 |
114 | Vegas Odds | -135 |
Piera Rodriguez | vs. | Cynthia Calvillo |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 9-1-0 | Record | Record: 9-6-1 |
5 | Knockouts | 2 |
0 | Subs | 3 |
-130 | Vegas Odds | 110 |
Dan Argueta | vs. | Jean Matsumoto |
$7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
| Record: 9-1-0 (2 NC) | Record | Record: 14-0-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 3 |
4 | Subs | 5 |
136 | Vegas Odds | -162 |
Dylan Budka | vs. | Cesar Almeida |
$8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 7-2-0 | Record | Record: 4-0-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 3 |
2 | Subs | 0 |
-148 | Vegas Odds | 124 |
Melissa Mullins | vs. | Nora Cornolle |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 6-0-0 | Record | Record: 7-1-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 3 |
1 | Subs | 0 |
-340 | Vegas Odds | 270 |