UFC Fight Night DFS Picks & Playbook: MMA Strategy & Cheat Sheet
UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura takes place this Saturday live from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The card kicks off with the Prelims at 4:00PM EST on ESPN+, followed the Main Card at 7:00 PM on ESPN+.
The Main Event features fan favorite Tai Tuivasa vs. Marcin Tybura in a battle of top 10 heavyweights. The co-main even features two up and coming fighters in Bryan Battle and Ange Loosa which could showcase two future top 15 fighters of the division.
Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS.
Now let's look at some top UFC DFS picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
DFS Picks, Playbook & DraftKings UFC Lineup Advice: UFC Fight Night, Tuivasa vs. Tybura
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Tai Tuivasa vs Marcin Tybura | 8300/7900 | - | Stackability: Low | -112/+102 | 100./140. |
| This fight is the tale of two styles, Tuivasa is going to control the fight early with his power, and Tybura is notoriously a slow starter but if he survives, he can control the end of this fight. Both of these fighters have massive inside the distance lines so expect this one to end before it reaches the judges, but they score in totally different ways. Tuivasa needs a first or second round KO if he wants to hit the optimal lineup, while Tybura has a little more wiggle room because if he does survive early, he should be able to score some wrestling points and find a late finish. I'm taking Tuivasa to break his three-fight losing streak, but if he doesn't get this done in the first 8 minutes, he probably ends up slowing down and losing the fight, so I'll have some of both of them in my lineups. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Kennedy Nzechukwu | 9400 | Ovince Saint Preux | Somewhat-Safe | -700 | -330 |
| I am not confident in Kennedy's chin, but OSP is a complete shell of the version of himself that took on Jon Jones for the title. Kennedy has much faster hands and it should only take a couple of shots to crack OSP. If this fight does hit the ground I have concern for Kennedy, but I'm banking on him to get the early KO and hopefully give us a massive score. | |||||
| Mike Davis | 9200 | Natan Levy | Somewhat-Safe | -500 | 165. |
| Davis feels like one of the safer plays on the slate but I'm not overly confident in his upside. He has a well-rounded game, but I think in this fight he is going to want to try to keep it standing which could hurt his ability to score as much on DraftKings. Levy is going to try to wrestle like he always does but Davis should be able to stop the takedowns and even if he gets Davis down, I don't think Davis will struggle to get back to his feet. I think Davis finds a Round 3 finish once Levy tires out, but if it gets to decision, I don't think he'll score better than some of the other high-priced options. | |||||
| Gerald Meerschaert | 9100 | Bryan Barberena | Somewhat-Safe | -245 | -105 |
| This feels gross putting a -245 GM3 so high up but what is Bryan Barberena doing. Barberena at his best was a gritty 155er who then moved up to 170lbs but looked a little out of place and was outmuscled even by the likes of RDA who is pretty small himself for 170, and now he is taking his second fight at 185lbs. GM3 should be able to get some takedowns, and once he has him down I think he eventually finds the submission. I won't fade Barberena only because I've seen GM3 legitimately get KOd really quickly by multiple opponents, but this feels like a spot where GM3 dominates. | |||||
| Thiago Moises | 9300 | Mitch Ramirez | Moderate | -375 | |
| Moises is always a submission threat, and this is a pretty good matchup for him. Moises needs this fight on the ground ASAP and Ramirez is pretty strong so I could see him struggle early, but if he does get it down even once that might be enough to end the fight. I'm normally lower than the field on Moises only because he won't strike at all, so he really needs the submission win. Ramirez is a late replacement so who knows what shape he will be in, but from what I have seen I think he holds his own for the first few minutes before falling apart. | |||||
| Charalampos Grigoriou | 8900 | Chad Anheliger | Moderate | -166 | |
| He's a 31-year-old prospect so that doesn't give me much confidence, but he has a solid camp over at Weidman/Longo and is closer to his prime than Anheliger is. He throws a lot of low kicks and seems very comfortable on the ground. I don't think he is a major talent but at this point Anheliger may just be dust and I'm willing to take a small portion of my lineups to find out if he is. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Isaac Dulgarian | 8500 | Christian Rodriguez | Moderate | -192 | 140. |
| This is the fight I'm most excited for this week. Dulgarian has been a monster in his fights, finishing every opponent in the first round. He was a D2 college wrestling finalist as a freshman, so he has more wrestling experience than almost anyone in the 145lb division. He also trains at Factory X Muy Thai in Colorado, so he is training at elevation, so while I'm not sure if his cardio is great because we haven't seen it, I'm assuming it is pretty good. Rodriguez is a tough out, but he is moving from 135lbs to 145lbs, so I expect Isaac to dominate the early part of this fight. If this gets past the first round there is a chance Isaac's cardio falls off of a cliff, but I'm banking he can get it done before we get there. | |||||
| Josiane Nunes | 8400 | Chelsea Chandler | Moderate | -142 | 175. |
| Both of these girls are moving down from 145lbs, and I think that is exactly what Nunes needs. She can't stop takedowns but every minute that this is on the feet I expect it to go Nunes' way. She has rare power for the division, and we've seen Chandler struggle to deal with power on the feet in the past. I'm banking Nunes gets the KO, but this fight could fall apart really quickly if neither one wants to go into the pocket. | |||||
| Jafel Filho | 8700 | Ode Osbourne | Somewhat-Risky | -155 | 110. |
| Filho has a great submission game, but his volume is a major concern. Ode starts fast and he'll have to get past the early aggression to win this fight, but that isn't something I want at $8700. Even if he does win the fight, I still think it is only around a 30% chance that he makes the optimal lineup. | |||||
| Bryan Battle | 8600 | Ange Loosa | Somewhat-Risky | -180 | 250. |
| Battle has power, but he really struggles to stop takedowns. He has a high ceiling, but if he loses this fight, he probably doesn't land volume and there is a chance he is just outwrestled for 15 minutes. | |||||
| Cory McKenna | 8200 | Jaqueline Amorim | Somewhat-Risky | -175 | 425. |
| McKenna should win this fight, she has huge odds value compared to her price, but she isn't someone who can normally get her opponent out of the cage. Amorim is a world class submission specialist, so while McKenna can take this fight to the ground if she wants, she probably should keep it standing for at least the first five minutes. Amorim can gas out and if she does McKenna may find the late stoppage. She's more of a cash game play than a GPP play but at this price you have to consider her. | |||||
| Jaqueline Amorim | 8000 | Cory McKenna | Somewhat-Risky | 145 | 250. |
| Amorim is Round 1 submission or likely loss so even though she is a decent sized underdog, she actually has a better inside the distance than McKenna. If she wins this fight, it's highly likely she hits the optimal lineup, so I'll have around 20% ownership of her across my lineups. | |||||
| Christian Rodriguez | 7700 | Isaac Dulgarian | Risky | 160 | 370. |
| Rodriguez has had a good account of himself in his career, but I am nervous of the possible strength differential here. He can fight for 15 minutes so if he survives the early portions of this fight, he should be able to turn the tables. He also has some crafty submission so I could see him getting taken down and ending up in the dominant position. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Ange Loosa | 7600 | Bryan Battle | Somewhat-Risky | 150 | 500. |
| Loosa should have a grappling advantage and he throws a good amount of volume. If he wins, I don't see him scoring less than 80pts on DK so with that type of win-floor for a $7600 fighter I expect him to get some ownership. I line this fight closer to 50/50 so I'll have a bunch of Loosa lineups. | |||||
| Ode Osbourne | 7500 | Jafel Filho | Somewhat-Risky | 130 | 225. |
| He should have a big first round, he's +130 and only $7500 so he is far from a sneaky play, but I think it is correct to have some Osbourne in your lineups. He normally fades after the first and Filho can fight all day so once it gets past the second round Filho should be able to finish him, but if he lands clean early on, I could see him ending the fight in a few clean shots. | |||||
| Danny Silva | 7400 | Josh Culibao | Risky | 154 | 380. |
| This fight is a clash of two styles and I'm not sure what to expect. Culibao always slows the pace of his fights and has normally been terrible for scoring for both him and his opponent on DraftKings. Silva was just in an absolute war where both fighters landed 190+ significant strikes over three rounds. I'm expecting Silva to try to push the pace, but Culibao does have a bunch of power so there is a chance Silva just stays to the outside. Either way at his price I think he makes for a good play, and at his best he can score 100+ points. | |||||
| Chad Anheliger | 7300 | Charalampos Grigoriou | Risky | 140 | |
| He is good value for his salary, but I have never been too high on Anheliger. He only has 4 fights in the UFC and at 37 years old I don't think they are doing him any favors. Could he pull off a crafty veteran win, sure, but I'm not banking on and even if he does get the win, I don't think his ceiling is as high as some of these other plays. | |||||
| Ovince Saint Preux | 6800 | Kennedy Nzechukwu | Risky | 500 | 700. |
| Can OSP land the kill shot on Kennedy? Probably not, but Kennedy has durability issues and if nothing else, OSP still has a bit of power. I'm not banking it, but I'll have a small percent of him in my lineup. He also has the most Von Flue Chokes in UFC history so if this hits the ground, maybe he can land his signature submission. | |||||
| Bryan Barberena | 7100 | Gerald Meerschaert | Risky | 200 | 450. |
| GM3 has no chin, but I don't want to bank on this version of Barberena landing a power punch when he is going to struggle to keep the fight standing. He's a possible fade candidate for me. | |||||
| Natan Levy | 7000 | Mike Davis | Risky | 380 | +1,100 |
| I normally target Levy because even in a loss he racks up a bunch of takedowns, but this is a bad matchup for him. Davis has losses to Sodiq Yuseff and Gilbert Burns and Levy is nowhere near that level. I think Davis keeps the fight where he wants it, and Levy finally runs into someone who can outwrestle him. | |||||
| Mitch Ramirez | 6900 | Thiago Moises | Risky | 295 | |
| Ramirez has a tough opponent in front of him, and if he keeps it standing, he probably has a chance, but I don't think that happens. One takedown is probably all Moises needs to turn this fight around and possibly end it. | |||||
Sample UFC Fight Night DFS Lineup
Live Dogs
Tybura, Loosa, Silva, Osbourne
Tuivasa vs. Tybura UFC Fight Night Picks & Stats
Tai Tuivasa | vs | Marcin Tybura |
$8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
| Record: 15-6-0 | Record | Record: 24-8-0 |
13 | Knockouts | 9 |
0 | Subs | 6 |
-115 | Vegas Odds | +105 |
Bryan Battle | vs | Ange Loosa |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
| Record: 11-2-0 | Record | Record: 10-3-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 5 |
5 | Subs | 1 |
-180 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
Ovince Saint Preux | vs | Kennedy Nzechukwu |
$6,800 | DFS Salary | $9,400 |
| Record: 26-17-0 | Record | Record: 12-4-0 |
Loading... | Knockouts | 8 |
Subs | 1 | |
500 | Vegas Odds | -700 |
Christian Rodriguez | vs | Isaac Dulgarian |
$7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
| Record: 10-1-0 | Record | Record: 6-0-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 4 |
4 | Subs | 2 |
160 | Vegas Odds | -192 |
Pannie Kianzad | vs | Macy Chiasson |
$7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
| Record: 17-7-0 | Record | Record: 9-3-0 |
Loading... | Knockouts | 2 |
Subs | 2 | |
190 | Vegas Odds | -230 |
0 | ||
Gerald Meerschaert | vs | Bryan Barberena |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 35-17-0 | Record | Record: 18-11-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 11 |
27 | Subs | 2 |
-245 | Vegas Odds | 200 |
Natan Levy | vs | Mike Davis |
$7,000 | DFS Salary | $9,200 |
| Record: 8-1-0 | Record | Record: 10-2-0 |
0 | Knockouts | 5 |
3 | Subs | 1 |
380 | Vegas Odds | -500 |
Josiane Nunes | vs | Chelsea Chandler |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 10-1-0 | Record | Record: 5-2-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 2 |
0 | Subs | 1 |
-142 | Vegas Odds | 120 |
Jafel Filho | vs | Ode Osbourne |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 15-3-0 | Record | Record: 12-6-0 (1 NC) |
5 | Knockouts | 5 |
9 | Subs | 4 |
-155 | Vegas Odds | 130 |
Josh Culibao | vs | Danny Silva |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 11-2-1 | Record | Record: 8-1-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 5 |
1 | Subs | 0 |
-185 | Vegas Odds | 154 |
Jaqueline Amorim | vs | Cory McKenna |
$8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
| Record: 7-1-0 | Record | Record: 8-2-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 2 |
5 | Subs | 2 |
145 | Vegas Odds | -175 |
Thiago Moises | vs | Mitch Ramirez |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 17-7-0 | Record | Record: 8-1-0 |
3 | Knockouts | Loading... |
8 | Subs | |
-375 | Vegas Odds | 295 |
Charalampos Grigoriou | vs | Chad Anheliger |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 8-3-0 | Record | Record: 12-7-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 7 |
0 | Subs | 3 |
-166 | Vegas Odds | 140 |