UFC Fight Night DFS Picks & Lineups: Dern vs. Ribas 2 Cheat Sheet, 1/11

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 takes place this Saturday live from The UFC Apex in Las Vegas NV. The card kicks off with the Prelims at 4:00PM EST on /ESPN+, followed by the Main Card at 7:00PM EST on ESPN+. 

The Main Event features a rematch from 2019 as Mackenzie Dern takes on Amanda Ribas. Both of these women like to wrestle and push into the pocket with reckless abandon to get the fight where they want it so it should be an all-action fight.

Check out all the latest UFC Fight Night DFS picks and lineups, plus matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on X/Twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS.

Now let's look at my UFC Fight Night cheat sheet for Saturday's event. Good luck with your UFC Fight Night DFS picks and lineups!

UFC Fight Night DFS Picks & Lineups: Dern vs. Ribas 2 Cheat Sheet, 1/11

Main Event UFC DFS Picks

The year kicks off with a card headlined with a rematch from 2019. Both of these fighters have come a long way since then, but I think the fight is going to play out fairly similarly. The initial fight was a lot of Ribas trying to avoid grappling until she landed a few takedowns of her own to seal some rounds. Dern's wrestling is much improved, so I expect this to be a closer fight than the first time. Both of these women could finish this fight in the later rounds as neither one has great cardio, and with five rounds to work with both of them can hit the optimal lineup. I'm picking Dern to get it done this time, but it should be a closely contested battle.

Expensive UFC DFS Picks

This is a tough week at the top, and for that reason I'm taking on a newcomer. Jacobe Smith is going to be looking to wrestle early and often. He's an extremely high-level wrestler and he knows that is where he is going to win his fights so he's going to secure multiple takedowns. Even in a decision he could score well over 100.

Waldo is one of the bigger favorites on this card and this fight should be a banger for as long as it lasts. Both of these fighters have boxing backgrounds so don't expect much wrestling, but both of them want to land 7-8 strikes per minute and neither one has shown a great gas tank. The red flag for Waldo in this fight is that he fought less than a month ago and he ate some pretty bad leg kicks so if he isn't 100% Sherman may just go right back to the leg kicks which could spell the end for Waldo's undefeated record.

Tulio has power but this fight is going to be closer than the line suggests. Ihor has been getting better each fight and the UFC has done him no favors with his matchmaking, so this is a major step back in competition. Someone from this fight is going to score well.

Aliev can get multiple takedowns, but he doesn't land any significant strikes. He'll need 3+ takedowns and 10+ minutes of control time to hit the optimal.

Almeida is a good kickboxer, but his takedown defense is terrible. If this stays standing, he should win and probably knock out Abdul, but if there is any wrestling involved, he is going to be in trouble.

Mid-Range UFC DFS Picks

This is a tough fight, but Bashi is going to shoot for a ton of takedowns and Rodriguez is someone who historically struggles to stay upright. Rodriguez is pretty good at getting back to his feet which is great for us since it means Bashi will need to keep landing takedowns over the course of fifteen minutes.

Gadzhiyasulov hasn't fought great competition so he could be the heavy favorite that doesn't show up this week, but when he wins he racks up takedowns and control time. He's landed at least five takedowns in any of his fights with the UFC so if he wins here, it's probably going to be with 5+ takedowns and 7+ minutes of control time. He doesn't land many strikes though and he doesn't really chase finishes.

Johnson is going to have to survive the early part of this fight, but Bunes will slow under pressure if he is pushed. Johnson is huge for the weight class and a good grappler, so he has multiple paths to victory. He isn't a high-volume wrestler or striker, so he'll probably need a finish in the second round to pay off his price.

Ogden is the better wrestler and while he probably won't want to use it offensively, he should be good enough to keep the fight standing. Moises is going to want the fight on the ground, but if he doesn't get it where he wants it, he's a fish out of water. One of these guys is going to look like they should have been a -300 favorite and I'm banking on it being Ogden.

Harris has good submission skills, and Ponzinibbio has been fading lately. I don't think this is a great fight to target, but at this point if I'm playing someone in it, it will be the better grappler against the guy who has seemed to lose his durability.

This is one of the fights I'm most confused on how to attack. Medic has struggled whenever he is faced with wrestlers, and while Soriano has a wrestling background, he hasn't always used it to the best of his abilities. Medic is going to land more volume on the feet and while Soriano has power, I don't think it will be enough to get Medic out of there. If Soriano does show up and wrestle, then this fight is closer to 50/50.

Bunes looked great in the first round in his fight against Joshua Van and while he faded late, the pace of that fight was really high so if this is a little bit slower, he might be able to win the first two rounds. He has a little bit of wrestling, and willingness to throw strikes too so in a win I could see him landing 2-3 takedowns and 70+ significant strikes which isn't bad for $7600.

Paydown UFC DFS Picks

The biggest question is going to be will he wrestle or not. I think he is good enough at wrestling to make this close, but if he doesn't wrestle, he really just tries to line up one big punch and on a good day he'll only land 50 significant strikes.

If Bashi doesn't get Rodriguez out of there early this fight could get close. Rodriguez has been absolutely dominated in the first round in previous fights and came back to win them, but if Bashi is patient I don't think he'll be able to "rope a dope" him into the dog fight that he wants.

Curtis is very rarely the right answer on DraftKings, unless you get him at a price where all he needs to do is win. Curtis is going to land his 80 significant strikes and probably get hit the same number of times in return. It all comes down to who has the bigger moments which should favor Kopylov. If Curtis has any wrestling in his back pocket, he could win close rounds with it since Kopylov isn't going to be wrestling, but I doubt Chris looks to use it.

Alhassan is a Judo Black Belt, and he's been in wars with some decent fighters like Joaquim Buckley so at his best he can dominate this fight. Against Buckley once he started to use his wrestling he was able to get some takedowns and win a round, and if you could guarantee me that Abdul is going to attempt at least three takedowns then I would line him as the favorite here. The real question is does he want to get the win, or does he want to try for the highlight.

I am irrationally confident that this number is way off. Potieria is still only 29 years old and although he isn't the most talented fighter on the roster, the UFC has done him no favors. He can mix in wrestling if he thinks he has the advantage and he has decent volume on the feet. This is a major step back compared to Ulberg and Pereira so he should be able to hold his own.

She wrestles a little bit, but so does her opponent so it should be close. I'm not seeing much of an angle here so I'm going to be playing the dog more than the favorite.

Solecki has a tough test here in Aliev. Aliev has the power advantage and wrestling advantage so I'm not sure of Solecki's path to victory unless he gets a hail mary submission.

This is Kline's coming out party. While I don't really want to pay $9800 for Kline, she should dominate the fight. I don't really see a way Dudakova wins this.

UFC DFS Optimizer: Sample UFC Fight Night Lineup

MMA DFS Strategy: Live Dogs

• Ogden, Dern, Curtis, Alhassan, Potieria

Dern vs. Ribas 2 UFC Fight Night Picks & Stats