UFC Fight Night DFS Picks & Lineups: Burns vs. Brady Cheat Sheet, 9/7

UFC Fight Night: Brady vs Burns takes place this Saturday live from The UFC Apex in Las Vegas Nevada. The card kicks off with the Prelims at 4:00PM EST on ESPN+, followed by the Main Card at 7:00 PM EST on ESPN+.

The main event features former title challenger Gilbert Burns taking on up and coming Sean Brady in a matchup between two high level grapplers. Gilbert Burns is looking to make a final run at the title after a disappointing outing last time, while Brady looks to work his way back to the top to avenge the only loss of his career against current champion Belal Muhammad.

Check out all the latest UFC Fight Night DFS picks and lineups, plus stats for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on X/Twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS. Now let's look at some UFC Fight Night DFS picks and lineups for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups as this Burns vs. Brady cheat sheet should help!

UFC Fight Night DFS Picks & Lineups: Burns vs. Brady Cheat Sheet, 9/7

Main Event UFC DFS Picks

Burns is a former title challenger, and Brady has one career loss, and it was against the current champion Belal Muhammad so this should be an extremely high-level fight. Burns is getting up there in age so while I think a prime Burns wins this fight, I'm not sure what we are going to get here. Brady has the better wrestling, and he is a skilled BJJ practitioner, but Burns is still the better grappler. We have seen before that getting top position in grappling exchanges means a lot more than it does in pure BJJ so I think Brady should be able to control the fight if he does get on top. I'm expecting a lot of takedowns and scrambles so whoever wins this I expect to score well, but I'm leaning more towards Brady.

Expensive UFC DFS Picks

Dulgarian gassed out in his last fight but the amount he wrestles and the volume he puts up early in his fights makes him have the highest ceiling on the slate. I don't think Marotte is going to be able to survive past Round 1 and Dulgarian scoring 120+ is in play. The biggest concern is that at $9900 can he pay off the price tag, and even at 120pts if other fighters in the 9k range score 110+ it might not matter what he scores.

Petroski is better everywhere here, and we know Petroski can push a pace. Petroski is going to look to take it down to the ground and I think he is able to find the finish at some point. If Petroski gets the R1 or R2 finish I think he can score enough to be the top scorer on the slate outside of Dulgarian.

Durden is going to push a pace in Round 1, and I fully expect him to gas out if he doesn't get the finish. Durden is taking this fight on one week notice, reportedly is not flying out any coaches and is expected to have his girlfriend in his corner. On top of that it is also up a weight class because he couldn't make 125lbs on short notice. When he wins, he is going to win big, but if he doesn't get it done early it will get greasy. This is a fight that whoever wins has a good chance of hitting the optimal lineup.

Both of these women like to wrestle and attempt submissions, but Amorim is way ahead here. Amorim is similar to Durden where she can gas out if she doesn't get the early finish, so I'm nervous of a mental lapse if she can't get the sub. She throws less volume than Durden so while they are very similar plays, I rank Amorim slightly lower because her ceiling seems to be closer to 105pts than the 110-115 Durden can hit.

Andrade does her best work at 115lbs so she might get out muscled here. Silva isn't a volume grappler which is where Andrade really struggles so this could get greasy. Andrade is going to bring the fight, and I expect the winner here to either have to get a finish or land 125+ significant strikes so even in a decision there should be a pretty good floor.

Mid-Range UFC DFS Picks

I normally like Garcia more towards even money, but he is DK gold. He has had one fight in his UFC career go more than 7 minutes and in the fights that ended inside the distance there have been multiple knockdowns in about 50% of them so expect someone in this fight to get knocked out. I line this fight closer to a coin flip but want a piece of it for DraftKings.

Peek has the better chin and gas tank and that might be enough to get it done here. With that said Ashmouz looks absolutely jacked ahead of this fight, and if Ashmouz has anything it is power. Peek struggles when guys can wrestle against him, and I don't think that is something Ashmouz brings to the table. I think Peek finds the R2/3 finish and scores 85-100pts.

Fletcher has a massive wrestling advantage here and as long as he can avoid the power shots of Ramaska he should be able to get the win. Ramaska really struggled to defend takedown on any regional scene tape I reviewed, and Fletcher excelled with his wrestling even against other wrestlers. Ramaska has a ton of power so Fletcher could get caught here but if this fight extends, I think he coasts.

Lima is normally low volume, but Dos Santos pushes forward. I don't love this fight for DK because I could see it playing out as a low volume striking affair but of the two, I think Lima is the more technical. I'll have a little exposure to both of them but I'm not confident the winner scores 90+ here.

Ashmouz has massive power, but Peek has never been finished. Peek does lack defense so I expect him to land at some point, but the question is going to be if Peek's chin can hold up. Eventually he probably gets overwhelmed, but the good thing about fighting Peek is he is going to force you to land volume since he is always coming forward.

Ramaska has massive power so him winning by KO wouldn't surprise me. He isn't someone I'm confident in winning, which is why I have him down here, but I think the winner of this fight pays off their price.

Garcia doesn't normally go more than 7 minutes and Nelson has gone the distance many times. If he weathers the early storm, he should be able to win this fight, and even if he doesn't weather the early storm, he may be able to land clean in the chaos and put Garcia out. I don't expect any wrestling here but if anyone is going to do it, it is probably Nelson.

Paydown UFC DFS Picks

I like Padilla here a lot. Rong had an initial run in the UFC, and he was way too young at the time, but he didn't look like he was ready for the UFC. Although he looks better now this is probably one of the tougher tasks that the UFC has given him, so I expect Padilla to keep this close and even win it. I'll be betting on Padilla.

Yizha (some sites only have him with one name) is a submission specialist, and while Santos has looked respectable in losses against Lerone Murphy and David Onama, one thing I have been trying to do lately is not overrate fighter performances in losses. If someone gets the submission here it is probably Yi so I'm playing for his ceiling.

Schnell is taking on a short notice opponent and this is probably his easiest fight in a while. Schnell has been in there with everyone, including the current champion, so while his record isn't great, he has the skills to hang around with them. He doesn't have the chin to get into a war, but if he can survive the big shots, I expect him to get the win.

Andrade is going to push a pace, and she has power, but I think she can win by outvoluming Silva. I can't trust Andrade when she goes up to 125lbs, but this is a step down compared to her regular competition level, so I won't be surprised if she pulls this off.

Petroski is a known gasser so if Budka survives for 8 minutes, he should be live to turn the tides of the fight. With that said I'm not confident he can survive the early part of the fight.

She’s always live for a submission and the judges love to gift her fights. Amorim is going to get the fight to the ground, and if she doesn't gas out going for the finish, she probably dominates the fight over 15 minutes. Submission or bust for Demopoulos.

Outside of an injury for Dulgarian, or him completely gassing out going for the finish I don't think Marotte makes it more than a few minutes in this fight. He is from a good camp so maybe he will improve from the fight against McKinney, but he is going to be under pressure right from the opening bell and I expect him to get finished in the first round.

UFC DFS Optimizer: Sample UFC Fight Night Lineup

MMA DFS Strategy: Live Dogs

• Burns, Andrade, Schnell, Padilla

Burns vs. Brady UFC Fight Night Picks & Stats