UFC DFS Picks & Playbook: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev Fight Night, Sat. 3/2
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev takes place this Saturday live from the UFC APEX in Last Vegas, Nevada. The card kicks off with the Prelims at 1:30PM EST on ESPN+, followed by the Main Card at 4:00 PM on ESPN+.
The Main Event features a matchup between some top 15 Heavyweights that could be over from any strike from these two power punchers. The Co-Main Event features up and coming Victor Petrino facing long time UFC Veteran Tyson Pedro in a battle for a spot in the top 15 at Light Heavyweight.
Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @MikeIannoneDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS picks and top plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Picks & Playbook for UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs Shamil Gaziev | 7900/8300 | - | Stackability: Low | 150/ -200 | 150./-150 |
| We have a weight card this week with a pretty empty mid-range due to so many high-priced favorites, so this is going to be a popular fight to target. Jairzinho is notorious for his quick finishes, but he also gets KO'd quickly himself and once he gets taken down, he really struggles to get back up. Gaziev should use his wrestling to slow down Jairzinho, but of the two I think Jairzinho actually has the better cardio. This fight likely ends early, but if it goes more than 6-7 minutes the odds should flip. I'll have plenty of both of them in my lineups, but this isn't a fight that I plan on going all in because if it does reach the second round, there is a chance the winner doesn't him the optimal lineup. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Umar Nurmagomedov | 9700 | Bekzat Almakhan | Somewhat-Safe | -1,200 | -125 |
| Umar is priced extremely high this week, but it is for good reason. He is -1200, taking on a UFC newcomer and has shown that he can score 100+ fantasy points in both decisions and finishes. He's going to be the highest owned of the high-priced fighters, but I'm still going to have him in about 50% of my lineups. | |||||
| Ludovit Klein | 9600 | AJ Cunningham | Somewhat-Safe | -250 | |
| Klein is taking on a UFC newcomer in AJ Cunningham and has clear technical advantages over Cunningham. He should be sharper, and I expect him to eventually KO Cunningham, but Klein isn't someone we can rely on to land more than 25 significant strikes per round so unless Cunningham comes out reckless, Klein likely won't end up in the optimal lineup unless he gets the KO in the first round. I'll have him in about 25% of my lineups. | |||||
| Muhammad Mokaev | 9100 | Alex Perez | Somewhat-Safe | -355 | 120. |
| This is the toughest task for Mokaev, but also one of the ones that could lead to his best scores. Perez likes to push action and because of that I think the line is too high to bet at -355 for Mokaev, but this makes Mokaev a good DraftKings play. He'll need multiple takedowns, control time, and although he doesn't land many significant strikes, he does land short punches to the body when he has his opponent down on the ground at one of the highest rates I've seen in the UFC (100+ non-significant strikes landed in his last fight resulting in an extra 20 DK pts). I'm going to bet on Perez to win, but I'll still have Mokaev in at least 25% of my lineups as he is one of the few fighters with a ceiling high enough to outscore Umar, and he also costs $600 less. | |||||
| Steve Erceg | 9200 | Matt Schnell | Moderate | -440 | -125 |
| Erceg is another favorite who has a line that is way too high. Matt Schnell is always called "chinny" because he gets knocked out frequently and while he does get clipped a lot, the people who are actually KOing him are the current champ, and number one ranked fighters in the division. Erceg does have power to KO him, so I do want to play him in some lineups, but Erceg being only -125 to end the fight inside the distance and with little wrestling upside, he really needs to get the finish late in Round 1 or Round 2 to pay off this salary. | |||||
| Eryk Anders | 9300 | Jamie Pickett | Moderate | -485 | 130. |
| Anders is the clear favorite here and the much better fighter, but he never really scores well on DraftKings. He won't wrestle much, and while he does have the clear athletic advantage, he has never really been a finisher. I'm fading Pickett in my lineups because Anders should win this fight, but I'm only planning Anders in about 25% of my lineups. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Christian Leroy Duncan | 8900 | Claudio Ribeiro | Moderate | -310 | -150 |
| I'm expanding the pricing of the mid rage this week because we don't have too many fighters below $9000. Duncan has better cardio, wrestling, and technical striking so he should really control this fight once we hit the second round. Ribeiro is going to throw reckless power shots in Round 1 and one of those landing and KOing Duncan is his only path to victory. I'll have a lot of both sides of this fight because of the likely KO before the end of the second round, and a bet on Duncan to win by KO in Round 2. | |||||
| Vitor Petrino | 9000 | Tyson Pedro | Moderate | -305 | -110 |
| Petrino has better wrestling, but both of these guys seem to be a disaster once they get past the 8-minute mark. Petrino has fared better, but I don't think he actually has good cardio, I think he was just facing opposition who couldn't deal with his wrestling. Pedro has 6 UFC wins, all coming in the first round so Petrino may come out and try to just control him with wrestling while he is the most dangerous, but I think he is giving up some power on the feet while they are both fresh so I'm not as confident in him as I am some of the other 9K fighters. | |||||
| Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady | 8400 | Loik Radzhabov | Somewhat-Risky | -180 | 250. |
| Loik is an absolute unit, but he isn't a great striker and doesn't have cardio. If Adbul keeps the fight standing and avoids the power coming back, he should be able to piece Loik up. This fight is one of only two fights with fighters between 7700-8500 so I expect people to look to it for some savings and with Abdul being only $8400 and a -180 favorite (-180 is normally closer to the 8800-8900 range) I expect him to get some ownership. | |||||
| Vinicius Oliveira | 8600 | Benardo Sopaj | Somewhat-Risky | #N/A | |
| Oliveira normally won't throw many combinations, but he does throw with power. His low kicks are strong, he flurries on his opponent when he senses blood in the water, and he can really put on a show if his opponent lets him. He keeps his hands low, which I absolutely hate, and he loads up some of his strikes too long, but he does have the power to score well. I'm not confident in either of these guys, but I'm backing the guy who has what I think to be the more impactful strikes. | |||||
| Benardo Sopaj | 7600 | Vinicius Oliveira | Somewhat-Risky | #N/A | #N/A |
| Sopaj is going to be highly owned, he's close to pick'em at $7600 on a slate that is really lacking in value. Oliveira is open to be countered, but I do slightly favor Oliveira in the matchup. Sopaj may get as high as 45% owned which is wild for an underdog. I'll probably have closer to 30% but he is still a strong play. | |||||
| Loik Radzhabov | 7800 | Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady | Somewhat-Risky | 150 | 350. |
| Loik has scored as many as 11 takedowns in a UFC fight before, so the wrestling upside is there, but he doesn't always rely on it. He has enough power to win this fight by KO, but I think it's more likely he gets the decision win. If all of the mid-range fights make it to round 3, I think Loik has a chance to be the highest scorer if he uses his wrestling effectively. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Claudio Ribeiro | 7300 | Christian Leroy Duncan | Somewhat-Risky | 250 | 330. |
| Ribeiro has power but he is basically a KO or bust fighter. He is +330 to win this fight inside the distance which is almost the same as his actual odds to win the fight, I'll have him in 20-25% of lineups which is about the same chance he wins this fight by KO. | |||||
| Tyson Pedro | 7200 | Vitor Petrino | Somewhat-Risky | 245 | 400. |
| Pedro has historically been a Round 1 (submissions for those who like to take wild bets) or but fighter and that is fine for a $7200 price tag. Petrino hasn't faced the highest level of competition so this could be his toughest test. | |||||
| Alex Perez | 7100 | Muhammad Mokaev | Risky | 280 | 600. |
| I'm going to be overweight to Perez and have him in about 40% of my lineups, but that is going to be about double of the ownership I think he comes in at. Mokaev was on his way to losing his last fight with Tim Elliott before finding a Round 3 submission, and this is a tougher task for him. Perez has better striking, better finishing ability, and his wrestling isn't terrible. Mokaev hasn't shown that he can finish opponents and his level of competition has been extremely low, so giving Perez 15 minutes to work with, I think he keeps it standing long enough to win the fight. | |||||
| Matt Schnell | 7000 | Steve Erceg | Risky | 340 | 600. |
| I'll be overweight to Schnell as well. Schnell likes to go to war during his fights, so someone here probably gets KO'd or submitted. Erceg doesn't throw much volume, and Schnell is going to force him into deep water as long as his chin holds up. Schnell could score 100 or he could score 5 but when entering large tournaments those are the risks we need to take. | |||||
| Aiemann Zahabi | 6700 | Javid Basharat | Risky | 550 | +1,200 |
| Zahabi likely gets to decision against Basharat, and at this price tag there is a chance that is enough to make the optimal lineup. I don't want to be heavily invested in this fight as Basharat has been going to low scoring decisions in most of his wins, but Zahabi has power so if he lands clean there is a chance, he finds the KO. | |||||
| Bekzat Almakhan | 6500 | Umar Nurmagomedov | Risky | 750 | +1,400 |
| He's pretty much an unknown, he has some MMA fights, some mixed rules fight that limit grappling but with that said he still has a 17-1 record, so he has some talent. I don't want to be heavy on him, but I'll have about 8% of my lineups with him in it but it's mostly a play that if he scores 30-40pts in a loss at his price, he might make the optimal lineup if only one other underdog wins. | |||||
| Jamie Pickett | 6900 | Eryk Anders | Risky | 370 | 800. |
| I'm fading Pickett this week mostly because I think he's going to be one of the chalky underdogs. He doesn't throw much volume, I don't think he's good enough to outwrestle Anders, so unless he lands a flash KO he should get pieced up. | |||||
| AJ Cunningham | 6600 | Ludovit Klein | Risky | 600 | +1,100 |
| Cunningham is only going to be 5-9% owned so he could be a good leverage play, but I think Klein is one of the more talented fighters on this card so I'm not going to be looking to go against him. He seems like he is pretty tough, but I don't think he has any skill that would give him an advantage over Klein. | |||||
Sample DFS Fight Night Lineup
Live Dogs
Rozenstruik, Perez, Sopaj, Ribeiro, Schnell
Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev UFC Fight Night Picks & Stats
Jairzinho Rozenstruik | vs | Shamil Gaziev |
$7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
| Record: 13-5-0 | Record | Record: 12-0-0 |
12 | Knockouts | 8 |
0 | Subs | 3 |
150 | Vegas Odds | -200 |
Vitor Petrino | vs | Tyson Pedro |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 10-0-0 | Record | Record: 10-4-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 5 |
1 | Subs | 5 |
-305 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
Alex Perez | vs | Muhammad Mokaev |
$7,100 | DFS Salary | $9,100 |
| Record: 24-7-0 | Record | Record: 11-0-0 (1 NC) |
5 | Knockouts | 2 |
7 | Subs | 6 |
280 | Vegas Odds | -355 |
Umar Nurmagomedov | vs | Bekzat Almakhan |
$9,700 | DFS Salary | $6,500 |
| Record: 16-0-0 | Record | Record: 14-1-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 12 |
7 | Subs | 1 |
-120 | Vegas Odds | 750 |
Matt Schnell | vs | Steve Erceg |
$7,000 | DFS Salary | $9,200 |
| Record: 16-7-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 11-1-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 1 |
9 | Subs | 6 |
340 | Vegas Odds | -440 |
0 | ||
Eryk Anders | vs | Jamie Pickett |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 15-8-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 13-10-0 |
9 | Knockouts | 9 |
1 | Subs | 0 |
-485 | Vegas Odds | 370 |
Vinicius Oliveira | vs | Benardo Sopaj |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
| Record: 19-3-0 | Record | Record: 11-2-0 |
8 | Knockouts | 5 |
8 | Subs | 5 |
Vegas Odds | #N/A | |
Aiemann Zahabi | vs | Javid Basharat |
$6,700 | DFS Salary | $9,500 |
| Record: 10-2-0 | Record | Record: 14-0-0 (1 NC) |
6 | Knockouts | 5 |
2 | Subs | 6 |
550 | Vegas Odds | -800 |
Christian Leroy Duncan | vs | Claudio Ribeiro |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 9-1-0 | Record | Record: 11-4-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 11 |
1 | Subs | 0 |
-310 | Vegas Odds | 250 |
Ludovit Klein | vs | AJ Cunningham |
$9,600 | DFS Salary | $6,600 |
| Record: 20-4-1 | Record | Record: 11-3-0 |
15 | Knockouts | 7 |
2 | Subs | 3 |
Vegas Odds | 600 | |
Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady | vs | Loik Radzhabov |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 15-3-0 | Record | Record: 17-5-1 |
8 | Knockouts | 7 |
2 | Subs | 5 |
-180 | Vegas Odds | 150 |