MMA DFS Playbook: UFC Fight Night Yan vs Dvalishvili
Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @consortiumDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night: Yan vs Dvalishvili
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Petr Yan vs Merab Dvalishvili | 9200/7000 | - | Stackability: Low | -275/ +210 | +215/+800 |
| A title contender matchup in the 135 lb division has former champion Petr Yan facing off against Merab "The Machine" Dvalishvili. Yan should have the advantage striking here but he is a notoriously slow starter so it could take him a round or two to get going. Merab is relentless in his pursuit of takedowns so watch for him to try to get this match to the ground early and often. Merab really struggles to hold fighters down once he gets them there so he'll need 5+ takedowns to have any chance of winning this fight, which is a tough ask against Yan. I'll have both of these fighters spread out across my lineups as Yan has KO upside along with the possibility of five round volume, and Merab will score a ton if he can survive for five rounds. For cash games stack this fight up, for GPPs if you really don't like any other dogs, you can stack this fight and hope Yan wins a five-round war, but Merab gets enough takedowns to score well. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Mario Bautista | 9700 | Guido Cannetti | Somewhat-Safe | -900 | -360 |
| Bautista is a massive favorite in this spot against Cannetti and while I think the line is a bit out of hand, he still is a great play. Cannetti has about five minutes of cardio and if he can't find the finish in the first he really struggles down the stretch. I expect Bautista to push the pace, utilize leg kicks and find a late second or third round finish. | |||||
| JJ Aldrich | 9400 | Ariane Lipski | Somewhat-Safe | -350 | +180 |
| Aldrich is someone that is tough to figure out which game plan she is going to implement, but in this spot, she should know wrestling can win her this fight. Aldrich came into the UFC as primarily a boxer, but she has shown improvements especially in her last matchup against Erin Blanchfield where she stopped all of Blanchfield's takedowns and landed two of her own. While she ended up losing that fight, it shows that JJ is improving and those improvements should be more than enough to dominate Lipski. | |||||
| Said Nurmagomedov | 9100 | Jonathan Martinez | Moderate | -275 | +200 |
| I'm going to put this in caps because the name could confuse some people, HE IS NOT RELATED TO KHABIB AND HAS ONLY 2 TAKEDOWNS IN 8 UFC FIGHTS. With that said, Nurmagomedov is a flashy striker who loves to throw spinning attacks and has a good chance to find a finish here against Martinez. Said's problem is that all of his fights are incredibly low volume with neither him or his opponent landing 70+ strikes in any of his 7 UFC bouts. He has some craft submissions so even if this fight is taken to the ground he should be able to threaten enough to get it back standing. I'll have some Said, but if you are making multiple lineups he is far from a guarantee to score well. | |||||
| Bruno Silva | 8900 | Tyson Nam | Moderate | -190 | +150 |
| Silva is a power fighter having secured 10 takedowns and 4 knockdowns in his first five UFC fights. Him and Nam both don't throw much volume but both are there to land massive shots so someone is likely to get dropped in this spot. If Silva opts to wrestle he should have the advantage there as well. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Carlston Harris | 8300 | Jared Gooden | Moderate | -300 | #N/A |
| I have to list Harris here at the top due to his recent change in opponent. Harris is a massive favorite at only $8300 due to a switch in opponents, but he faces a veteran who has been through some wars in the UFC. I think Harris can get it done early here by KO or submission, but if the fight extends Gooden may have the cardio advantage has been to decision multiple times while Harris's fights tend to end early. | |||||
| Alexandr Romanov | 8600 | Alexander Volkov | Moderate | -150 | +130 |
| Round 1 Romanov is an absolute monster and I expect him to come out early and dominate Volkov with wrestling. We've seen in prior fights though that if he can't find the finish he completely gasses out and may lose this fight. Since we are hunting for fighters that can win us a tournament if they win the fight, I'll be having plenty of lineups with Romanov. | |||||
| Tony Gravely | 7800 | Victor Henry | Somewhat-Risky | +120 | +400 |
| My first dog from the mid-range, Gravely is an absolute tank and averages nearly 6 takedowns per 15 minutes so if he wins he'll score well. If this fight stays standing he is going to get absolutely pieced up unless he can land a power shot from the heavens to drop Henry. I'm aiming to have 30% Gravely across my GPP tournaments and he makes for a decent cash game play as I don't see him getting finished early and he has a massive ceiling. | |||||
| Anton Turkalj | 8000 | Vitor Petrino | Somewhat-Risky | -115 | +200 |
| Anton does one thing and one thing only and that is wrestle. Petrino is a powerful striker so Anton could get KO'd here but if he doesn’t, I expect him to land 3+ takedowns and win a decision. Both sides of this fight are playable in GPPs. | |||||
| Davey Grant | 8500 | Raphael Assuncao | Somewhat-Risky | -140 | +200 |
| Grant has some power and pace, but Assuncao is a tough puzzle to solve. I think Grant can get it done, but I expect this pace to be one of the worst on the slate so unless Grant gets the early finish I don't think he scores enough on DraftKings to make the optimal. | |||||
| Alexander Volkov | 7600 | Alexandr Romanov | Somewhat-Risky | +130 | +330 |
| Volkov is the better technical striker here, but he is going to have to get up from these Romanov takedowns to have any chance. Luckily for him he holds the record for most times taken down in a fight, but also most times to get up from a takedown in a fight in his war against Curtis Blaydes. Volkov likely can't finish Romanov in the first, but if Romanov gets tired down the stretch a late finish is in the cards. | |||||
| Vitor Petrino | 8200 | Anton Turkalj | Risky | -105 | +150 |
| Petrino is undefeated with all but one of his wins coming by knockout, so he clearly has a ton of power. He is worth the risk at $8200 and -140, but I do expect him to get some high ownership in this spot. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Josh Fremd | 7400 | Sedriques Dumas | Somewhat-Risky | +180 | +300 |
| I don't really know what to make out of Fremd in his matchup against Dumas. I thought Fremd was going to have the wrestling advantage in his last matchup but he completely failed in that spot, getting out wrestled and subbed by Tre'Sean Gore who is primarily a kick boxer. I still think he has enough talent to keep this fight competitive on the feet or on the ground, so I'll be taking some shots on him. | |||||
| Lukasz Brzeski | 7200 | Karl Williams | Somewhat-Risky | +200 | +365 |
| Brzeski should have the cardio and size advantage over Williams, but he needs to avoid the early power coming his way. Williams ran through his opponent on the Contender Series but just laid on top and didn't land much in terms of significant strikes once down there. I think this fight should be lined closer to -130/+110 so for that reason alone I'm going to take a shot on the underdog. | |||||
| Jonathan Martinez | 7100 | Said Nurmagomedov | Risky | +220 | +550 |
| Martinez faces a tough task here, but if he can avoid the flashy spinning attacks and keep his neck out of submission, he has a legitimate chance to just outpoint Said. I think it would be a big ask for Martinez to finish Said, so he may not score well in a win but as one of the lowest priced fighters it could be enough to win you a GPP. | |||||
| Jared Gooden | 6900 | Carlston Harris | Risky | +240 | #N/A |
| Gooden becomes one of the lowest owned fighters on the slate simply because of how high owned Harris will be. Gooden has landed 100+ ss in multiple UFC fights so he puts out a lot of volume. I don't think he wins this fight but since he should be less than 15% owned at $6900 so I'll be taking a few shots on him. | |||||
| Tyson Nam | 7300 | Bruno Silva | Risky | +175 | +300 |
| Nam has a ton of power, so he could find the finish here but other than that he doesn't land much. He is KO or bust but has huge upside in a win. | |||||
| Ariane Lipski | 6800 | JJ Aldrich | Risky | +260 | +800 |
| Lipski has pulled off some hail mary submissions before and JJ isn't a standout grappler by any means. If JJ gets sloppy on one of her takedowns she could end up getting tapped out by "The Violence Queen". | |||||
| Guido Cannetti | 6500 | Ricardo Ramos | Risky | +650 | +900 |
| Cannetti has power early on in fights, and Bautista has been KO'd before. I think the line should be closer to -500/+400 but even in that case, I still wouldn't want much Guido in my lineups. | |||||
Sample Lineup
Live Dogs
Merab, Martinez, Nam, Brzeski, Fremd, Gravely
Stats and Picks
Petr Yan | vs | Merab Dvalishvili |
$9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 16-4-0 | Record | Record: 15-4-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 3 |
1 | Subs | 1 |
-275 | Vegas Odds | +210 |
Alexander Volkov | vs | Alexandr Romanov |
$7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
| Record: 35-10-0 | Record | Record: 16-1-0 |
23 | Knockouts | 6 |
3 | Subs | 9 |
+130 | Vegas Odds | -150 |
Nikita Krylov | vs | Ryan Spann |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 29-9-0 | Record | Record: 21-7-0 |
12 | Knockouts | 6 |
15 | Subs | 12 |
-165 | Vegas Odds | +140 |
Said Nurmagomedov | vs | Jonathan Martinez |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 17-2-0 | Record | Record: 17-4-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 8 |
5 | Subs | 2 |
-275 | Vegas Odds | +220 |
0 | ||
Vitor Petrino | vs | Anton Turkalj |
$8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
| Record: 7-0-0 | Record | Record: 8-1-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 5 |
0 | Subs | 2 |
-105 | Vegas Odds | -115 |
Karl Williams | vs | Lukasz Brzeski |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 7-1-0 | Record | Record: 8-2-1 (1 NC) |
3 | Knockouts | 6 |
0 | Subs | 9 |
-250 | Vegas Odds | +210 |
Raphael Assuncao | vs | Davey Grant |
$7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
| Record: 28-9-0 | Record | Record: 14-6-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 4 |
10 | Subs | 8 |
+115 | Vegas Odds | -140 |
Sedriques Dumas | vs | Josh Fremd |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 7-0-0 | Record | Record: 9-4-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 4 |
2 | Subs | 3 |
-225 | Vegas Odds | +180 |
Mario Bautista | vs | Guido Cannetti |
$9,700 | DFS Salary | $6500 |
| Record: 11-2-0 | Record | Record: 10-7-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 4 |
5 | Subs | 4 |
-950 | Vegas Odds | +650 |
Victor Henry | vs | Tony Gravely |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 22-6-0 | Record | Record: 23-8-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 2 |
3 | Subs | 0 |
-145 | Vegas Odds | +120 |
Ariane Lipski | vs | JJ Aldrich |
$6800 | DFS Salary | $9,400 |
| Record: 14-8-0 | Record | Record: 11-5-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 10 |
8 | Subs | 3 |
+260 | Vegas Odds | -350 |
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