MMA DFS Playbook: UFC Fight Night Yadong vs Simon Top DraftKings DFS Picks
Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @consortiumDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Yadong vs Simon
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Song Yadong vs Ricky Simon | 8400/7800 | - | Stackability: Low | +100/ -120 | +180/+250 |
| The main event this week takes place at the top of the bantamweight division in what should be a tightly contested matchup. Simon comes in as a small favorite, and while he is going to be giving up some technical ability on the feet, he should have a massive advantage getting this fight to the ground. This fight is going to boil down to who has the fight where they want it longer because in a 25-minute striking battle I find it hard for Yadong to not win at least three of the rounds. This fight is a stackable fight for cash games, but I wouldn't stack it in GPPs. For GPPs I'm leaning towards Simon due to his wrestling upside, but if you are playing 10 lineups make sure to include some of both fighters. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Caio Borralho | 9500 | Michal Oleksiejczuk | Somewhat-Safe | -400 | -125 |
| There aren't many "safe" plays on this card, but Caio has shown during his time in the UFC that he knows how to win fights. Caio has shown a high fight IQ and he knows what needs to be done to win rounds which sometimes leads to boring fights. Since moving down to 185 lbs. Mikey O's power has looked much better and he's no longer giving up as much size as he was previously. Borralho is going to need multiple takedowns, and to rack up control time if he wants to win this fight so while I don't think he has the highest ceiling I do think he is one of the safer plays. | |||||
| Rodolfo Vieira | 9100 | Cody Brundage | Somewhat-Safe | -225 | -135 |
| Vieira has high level BJJ and is built like a tank, but his skills haven't translated well in the UFC holding only a 3-2 record in the octagon. The good thing about his wins is that they are all by submission victory so for the most part you know how he is going to get it done. Looking at his career stats they show only a 27% takedown accuracy which would normally be a red flag for someone who needs to get the fight to the ground, but those stats are heavily weighted by an 0-20 takedown performance against Chris Curtis. I'll have plenty of Vieira and also a bet on him to win by submission within the first 2 rounds. | |||||
| Julian Erosa | 8800 | Fernando Padilla | Somewhat-Safe | -150 | +160 |
| Erosa's chin is always going to scare me, but his ceiling is as high as anyone else on the slate. When Erosa's chin holds up, he fights well and looks like a monster, but we've seen it many times before that all it takes is one hard shot to drop him. This is one of the fights that I'm confident that one of the fighters hits the optimal lineup, but it could be either guy. At $8800 and only a -143 favorite there is a good chance that Erosa goes under owned compared to the other highly priced fighters. | |||||
| Stephanie Egger | 9400 | Irina Alekseeva | Moderate | -333 | +130 |
| Egger has really switched up to a more takedown heavy approach in her last few fights in the UFC and I don't see her changing that now. Alekseeva is only 4-1 in her career and is 32 years old, so she isn't some mega prospect that is getting a setup fight here. I think Egger gets the job done, probably by submission, but it wouldn't surprise me if Irina kept it standing long enough to lower the score that Egger gets. | |||||
| Charles Johnson | 8700 | Cody Durden | Moderate | -150 | +300 |
| Johnson is normally involved in some pretty fun fights so this one could be good for DK scoring. He has shown the ability to put up over 100 strikes in a fight, and he will shoot for takedowns as needed to keep his opponents honest when he sees an opening. I think if anyone is finishing the fight it is going to be Johnson since he has shown great durability in his run in the UFC so far. Most of Johnson's fights are close so this one could get greasy; I'll end up on Johnson in about 20% of my lineups which I think is right around where the field will be. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Marcos Rogerio de Lima | 8600 | Waldo Cortes-Acosta | Moderate | -175 | +120 |
| Rogerio de Lima is a monster of a fighter for the first five minutes normally, but in this matchup, he may have such an advantage on the ground that if he gets the fight there, I don't know if Waldo can get back up. Waldo is primarily a boxer and while his striking is clean, his takedown defense has looked awful especially against Chase Sherman who before that fight had 0 career takedowns 13 fights. Rogerio de Lima has had multiple fights where he racks up 8+ minutes of control time off of only a handful of takedowns so once he gets the fight to the ground, he is tough to get off of you. I think Marcos Rogerio gets Waldo out of there inside the distance, and possibly by submission if you are looking for a long shot. | |||||
| Josh Quinlan | 8500 | Trey Waters | Moderate | -185 | -110 |
| Quinlan and Waters have only seen the judges once in their combined fights so expect fireworks in this matchup. The one thing I like about Quinlan is that I've seen him fight through adversity and not wilt. In his fight against Jennings in LFA he was able to eat some quality shots while battering up his opponent’s leg and while the fight was close and competitive, he was able to find the finish in the third round. Waters power early scares me, but I think Quinlan can expose him the later the fight goes if it makes it there, so I'll be heavy on Quinlan. | |||||
| Jake Collier | 8200 | Martin Buday | Somewhat-Risky | +100 | +325 |
| Collier has the volume advantage here, so I like him for DraftKings, but this is truly a coin flip of a fight depending on which version of each fighter shows up because they have both had highs and low in the UFC. Collier was KO'd in his last bout by Chris Barnett, but he landed 50+ strikes in only about 7 minutes of fight time and I don't think Buday can keep that pace. Buday is going to land the heavier strikes so Collier will need to outland him to get the win here. | |||||
| Jamey-Lyn Horth | 8300 | Hailey Cowan | Somewhat-Risky | -160 | +260 |
| Jamey-Lyn has now moved to a big favorite for only $8300 and Cowan has missed weight. Horth is only 5-0 as a professional but has 2 amateur wins over Lupita Godinez so she has some quality wins. I think Horth makes it look easy here, and her streak of finishing opponents continues on. She probably ends up being one of the higher owned fighters because of the odds value but she isn't someone I'm taking the risk of fading. The only thing that scares me is that she is moving up a weight class in this matchup so if she gets outmuscled, she could have some issues separating to land her shots. | |||||
| Waldo Cortes-Acosta | 7600 | Marcos Rogerio de Lima | Somewhat-Risky | +150 | +275 |
| Waldo is the cleaner striker and Rogerio de Lima has a problem with gassing out. If Waldo can survive the takedowns and make Marcos work, he could find the late finish here. | |||||
| Trey Waters | 7700 | Josh Quinlan | Somewhat-Risky | +150 | +210 |
| Waters is massive for this division and his inside the distance line alone makes him playable as an underdog. I don't love him in this fight and would only give him about a 30% chance to win it, but his path to victory is by KO so if he wins, he probably scores enough to make the optimal lineup. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Journey Newson | 7300 | Marcus McGhee | Somewhat-Risky | -190 | +180 |
| Newson gets a late replacement and now enters the cage as a -190 favorite for his $7300 salary. He is going to be the highest owned fighter on the slate, but he has a huge ceiling and a high win probability so unless you are trying to be extremely contrarian he should be played in some lineups. He is a cash game lock at this price. | |||||
| Cody Durden | 7500 | Charles Johnson | Somewhat-Risky | +125 | +375 |
| Durden has the wrestling advantage and he'll need to hold down Johnson if he wants to win this fight because as long as it stays standing Johnson has the advantage. He is only +125 for $7500 so he has great odds value, but with Newson priced lower than him he could go overlooked in what is a very winnable matchup. | |||||
| Fernando Padilla | 7400 | Julian Erosa | Risky | +125 | +230 |
| I think Erosa is the rightful favorite but for his price a +230 inside the distance is really nice. He'll need to land the KO shot if he wants to win this fight because Erosa pushes a pace that is going to eventually overwhelm Padilla. | |||||
| Cody Brundage | 7100 | Rodolfo Vieira | Risky | +188 | +300 |
| I'll be avoiding Brundage for the most part, but when Vieira can't score takedowns, he eventually tires out and is very exploitable. I think there are better underdogs this week but if he does tire out Vieira there is an outside chance that he finds the finish. | |||||
| Marcus McGhee | 7200 | Journey Newson | Risky | +150 | +260 |
| Mcghee faces Newson and is going to go almost completely unowned since Newson is only $7500 and -190. He has upside as he's never seen the judge's scorecard in any fight so he's likely going to get finished or win by finish in this spot, if you play him and he wins you are probably going to be killing off 50-60% of lineups that had Newson in it. | |||||
| Irina Alekseeva | 6800 | Stephanie Egger | Risky | +250 | +800 |
| She missed weight by nearly 5 lbs. for the fight so she should be the bigger fighter in this matchup, but she isn't the more technical. I'll be fading her in my lineups and hoping she doesn't find a hail mary submission. | |||||
| Michal Oleksiejczuk | 6700 | Caio Borralho | Risky | +290 | +600 |
| Mikey O is a risky player, but he can absolutely crack with his power. If this was a one round fight, he would be even money, but after the first round his cardio is probably going to let him down. He's likely KO or bust. | |||||
Sample Lineup
Live Dogs
Yadong, Waldo Cortes, Padilla, Buday
Stats and Picks
Song Yadong | vs | Ricky Simon |
$7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
| Record: 19-7-1 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 20-3-0 |
8 | Knockouts | 6 |
3 | Subs | 4 |
+100 | Vegas Odds | -120 |
Caio Borralho | vs | Michal Oleksiejczuk |
$9,500 | DFS Salary | $6,700 |
| Record: 13-1-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 18-5-0 (1 NC) |
4 | Knockouts | 13 |
3 | Subs | 1 |
-400 | Vegas Odds | +290 |
Rodolfo Vieira | vs | Cody Brundage |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 8-2-0 | Record | Record: 8-3-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 4 |
7 | Subs | 3 |
-225 | Vegas Odds | +188 |
Julian Erosa | vs | Fernando Padilla |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 28-11-0 | Record | Record: 14-4-0 |
11 | Knockouts | 4 |
12 | Subs | 8 |
-150 | Vegas Odds | +125 |
Marcos Rogerio de Lima | vs | Waldo Cortes-Acosta |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
| Record: 20-9-1 | Record | Record: 9-0-0 |
13 | Knockouts | 4 |
4 | Subs | 1 |
-175 | Vegas Odds | +150 |
0 | ||
Josh Quinlan | vs | Trey Waters |
$8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 6-0-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 7-1-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 3 |
2 | Subs | 3 |
Vegas Odds | +150 | |
Martin Buday | vs | Jake Collier |
$8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
| Record: 11-1-0 | Record | Record: 13-8-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 5 |
1 | Subs | 4 |
-125 | Vegas Odds | +100 |
Cody Durden | vs | Charles Johnson |
$7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
| Record: 14-4-1 | Record | Record: 13-4-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 5 |
5 | Subs | 4 |
+125 | Vegas Odds | -150 |
Stephanie Egger | vs | Irina Alekseeva |
$9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 8-3-0 | Record | Record: 4-1-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 1 |
4 | Subs | 1 |
-333 | Vegas Odds | +250 |
Journey Newson | vs | Marcus McGhee |
$7,300 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 10-4-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 6-1-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 3 |
3 | Subs | 3 |
-170 | Vegas Odds | +150 |
Hailey Cowan | vs | Jamey-Lyn Horth |
$7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
| Record: 7-2-0 | Record | Record: 5-0-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 3 |
2 | Subs | 2 |
+130 | Vegas Odds | -160 |
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