Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @consortiumDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!

 

MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Yadong vs Simon

Main Event

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Song Yadong vs Ricky Simon

8400/7800

-

Stackability: Low

+100/ -120

+180/+250

The main event this week takes place at the top of the bantamweight division in what should be a tightly contested matchup. Simon comes in as a small favorite, and while he is going to be giving up some technical ability on the feet, he should have a massive advantage getting this fight to the ground. This fight is going to boil down to who has the fight where they want it longer because in a 25-minute striking battle I find it hard for Yadong to not win at least three of the rounds. This fight is a stackable fight for cash games, but I wouldn't stack it in GPPs. For GPPs I'm leaning towards Simon due to his wrestling upside, but if you are playing 10 lineups make sure to include some of both fighters.
      

Expensive

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Caio Borralho

9500

Michal Oleksiejczuk

Somewhat-Safe

-400 

-125 

There aren't many "safe" plays on this card, but Caio has shown during his time in the UFC that he knows how to win fights. Caio has shown a high fight IQ and he knows what needs to be done to win rounds which sometimes leads to boring fights. Since moving down to 185 lbs. Mikey O's power has looked much better and he's no longer giving up as much size as he was previously. Borralho is going to need multiple takedowns, and to rack up control time if he wants to win this fight so while I don't think he has the highest ceiling I do think he is one of the safer plays.
Rodolfo Vieira

9100

Cody Brundage

Somewhat-Safe

-225 

-135 

Vieira has high level BJJ and is built like a tank, but his skills haven't translated well in the UFC holding only a 3-2 record in the octagon. The good thing about his wins is that they are all by submission victory so for the most part you know how he is going to get it done. Looking at his career stats they show only a 27% takedown accuracy which would normally be a red flag for someone who needs to get the fight to the ground, but those stats are heavily weighted by an 0-20 takedown performance against Chris Curtis. I'll have plenty of Vieira and also a bet on him to win by submission within the first 2 rounds.
Julian Erosa

8800

Fernando Padilla

Somewhat-Safe

-150 

+160 

Erosa's chin is always going to scare me, but his ceiling is as high as anyone else on the slate. When Erosa's chin holds up, he fights well and looks like a monster, but we've seen it many times before that all it takes is one hard shot to drop him. This is one of the fights that I'm confident that one of the fighters hits the optimal lineup, but it could be either guy. At $8800 and only a -143 favorite there is a good chance that Erosa goes under owned compared to the other highly priced fighters.
Stephanie Egger

9400

Irina Alekseeva

Moderate

-333 

+130 

Egger has really switched up to a more takedown heavy approach in her last few fights in the UFC and I don't see her changing that now. Alekseeva is only 4-1 in her career and is 32 years old, so she isn't some mega prospect that is getting a setup fight here. I think Egger gets the job done, probably by submission, but it wouldn't surprise me if Irina kept it standing long enough to lower the score that Egger gets.
Charles Johnson

8700

Cody Durden

Moderate

-150 

+300 

Johnson is normally involved in some pretty fun fights so this one could be good for DK scoring. He has shown the ability to put up over 100 strikes in a fight, and he will shoot for takedowns as needed to keep his opponents honest when he sees an opening. I think if anyone is finishing the fight it is going to be Johnson since he has shown great durability in his run in the UFC so far. Most of Johnson's fights are close so this one could get greasy; I'll end up on Johnson in about 20% of my lineups which I think is right around where the field will be.
      

Mid-Range

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Marcos Rogerio de Lima

8600

Waldo Cortes-Acosta

Moderate

-175

+120

Rogerio de Lima is a monster of a fighter for the first five minutes normally, but in this matchup, he may have such an advantage on the ground that if he gets the fight there, I don't know if Waldo can get back up. Waldo is primarily a boxer and while his striking is clean, his takedown defense has looked awful especially against Chase Sherman who before that fight had 0 career takedowns 13 fights. Rogerio de Lima has had multiple fights where he racks up 8+ minutes of control time off of only a handful of takedowns so once he gets the fight to the ground, he is tough to get off of you. I think Marcos Rogerio gets Waldo out of there inside the distance, and possibly by submission if you are looking for a long shot.
Josh Quinlan

8500

Trey Waters

Moderate

-185

-110 

Quinlan and Waters have only seen the judges once in their combined fights so expect fireworks in this matchup. The one thing I like about Quinlan is that I've seen him fight through adversity and not wilt. In his fight against Jennings in LFA he was able to eat some quality shots while battering up his opponent’s leg and while the fight was close and competitive, he was able to find the finish in the third round. Waters power early scares me, but I think Quinlan can expose him the later the fight goes if it makes it there, so I'll be heavy on Quinlan.
Jake Collier

8200

Martin Buday

Somewhat-Risky

+100 

+325 

Collier has the volume advantage here, so I like him for DraftKings, but this is truly a coin flip of a fight depending on which version of each fighter shows up because they have both had highs and low in the UFC. Collier was KO'd in his last bout by Chris Barnett, but he landed 50+ strikes in only about 7 minutes of fight time and I don't think Buday can keep that pace. Buday is going to land the heavier strikes so Collier will need to outland him to get the win here.
Jamey-Lyn Horth

8300

Hailey Cowan

Somewhat-Risky

-160 

+260 

Jamey-Lyn has now moved to a big favorite for only $8300 and Cowan has missed weight. Horth is only 5-0 as a professional but has 2 amateur wins over Lupita Godinez so she has some quality wins. I think Horth makes it look easy here, and her streak of finishing opponents continues on. She probably ends up being one of the higher owned fighters because of the odds value but she isn't someone I'm taking the risk of fading. The only thing that scares me is that she is moving up a weight class in this matchup so if she gets outmuscled, she could have some issues separating to land her shots.
Waldo Cortes-Acosta

7600

Marcos Rogerio de Lima

Somewhat-Risky

+150 

+275 

Waldo is the cleaner striker and Rogerio de Lima has a problem with gassing out. If Waldo can survive the takedowns and make Marcos work, he could find the late finish here.
Trey Waters

7700

Josh Quinlan

Somewhat-Risky

+150 

+210 

Waters is massive for this division and his inside the distance line alone makes him playable as an underdog. I don't love him in this fight and would only give him about a 30% chance to win it, but his path to victory is by KO so if he wins, he probably scores enough to make the optimal lineup.
      

Pay-Downs 

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Journey Newson

7300

Marcus McGhee

Somewhat-Risky

-190

+180 

Newson gets a late replacement and now enters the cage as a -190 favorite for his $7300 salary. He is going to be the highest owned fighter on the slate, but he has a huge ceiling and a high win probability so unless you are trying to be extremely contrarian he should be played in some lineups. He is a cash game lock at this price.
Cody Durden

7500

Charles Johnson

Somewhat-Risky

+125 

+375 

Durden has the wrestling advantage and he'll need to hold down Johnson if he wants to win this fight because as long as it stays standing Johnson has the advantage. He is only +125 for $7500 so he has great odds value, but with Newson priced lower than him he could go overlooked in what is a very winnable matchup. 
Fernando Padilla

7400

Julian Erosa

Risky

+125 

+230 

I think Erosa is the rightful favorite but for his price a +230 inside the distance is really nice. He'll need to land the KO shot if he wants to win this fight because Erosa pushes a pace that is going to eventually overwhelm Padilla.
Cody Brundage

7100

Rodolfo Vieira

Risky

+188 

+300 

I'll be avoiding Brundage for the most part, but when Vieira can't score takedowns, he eventually tires out and is very exploitable. I think there are better underdogs this week but if he does tire out Vieira there is an outside chance that he finds the finish.
Marcus McGhee

7200

Journey Newson

Risky

+150 

+260 

Mcghee faces Newson and is going to go almost completely unowned since Newson is only $7500 and -190. He has upside as he's never seen the judge's scorecard in any fight so he's likely going to get finished or win by finish in this spot, if you play him and he wins you are probably going to be killing off 50-60% of lineups that had Newson in it.
Irina Alekseeva

6800

Stephanie Egger

Risky

+250 

+800 

She missed weight by nearly 5 lbs. for the fight so she should be the bigger fighter in this matchup, but she isn't the more technical. I'll be fading her in my lineups and hoping she doesn't find a hail mary submission.
Michal Oleksiejczuk

6700

Caio Borralho

Risky

+290

+600 

Mikey O is a risky player, but he can absolutely crack with his power. If this was a one round fight, he would be even money, but after the first round his cardio is probably going to let him down. He's likely KO or bust.




 

Sample Lineup

Table
Description automatically generated

Live Dogs

Yadong, Waldo Cortes, Padilla, Buday

Stats and Picks

   

Song Yadong

vs

Ricky Simon

$7,700

DFS Salary

$8,400

Record: 19-7-1 (1 NC) 

Record

Record: 20-3-0 

8

Knockouts

6

3

Subs

4

+100 

Vegas Odds

-120

   

Caio Borralho

vs

Michal Oleksiejczuk

$9,500

DFS Salary

$6,700

Record: 13-1-0 (1 NC) 

Record

Record: 18-5-0 (1 NC) 

4

Knockouts

13

3

Subs

1

-400 

Vegas Odds

+290 

   

Rodolfo Vieira

vs

Cody Brundage

$9,100

DFS Salary

$7,100

Record: 8-2-0 

Record

Record: 8-3-0 

1

Knockouts

4

7

Subs

3

-225 

Vegas Odds

+188 

   

Julian Erosa

vs

Fernando Padilla

$8,800

DFS Salary

$7,400

Record: 28-11-0 

Record

Record: 14-4-0 

11

Knockouts

4

12

Subs

8

-150 

Vegas Odds

+125 

   

Marcos Rogerio de Lima

vs

Waldo Cortes-Acosta

$8,600

DFS Salary

$7,600

Record: 20-9-1 

Record

Record: 9-0-0 

13

Knockouts

4

4

Subs

1

-175

Vegas Odds

+150 

 

0

 

Josh Quinlan

vs

Trey Waters

$8,500

DFS Salary

$7,700

Record: 6-0-0 (1 NC) 

Record

Record: 7-1-0 

4

Knockouts

3

2

Subs

3

 

Vegas Odds

+150 

   

Martin Buday

vs

Jake Collier

$8,000

DFS Salary

$8,200

Record: 11-1-0 

Record

Record: 13-8-0 

7

Knockouts

5

1

Subs

4

-125 

Vegas Odds

+100 

   

Cody Durden

vs

Charles Johnson

$7,500

DFS Salary

$8,700

Record: 14-4-1 

Record

Record: 13-4-0 

6

Knockouts

5

5

Subs

4

+125 

Vegas Odds

-150 

   

Stephanie Egger

vs

Irina Alekseeva

$9,400

DFS Salary

$6,800

Record: 8-3-0 

Record

Record: 4-1-0 

3

Knockouts

1

4

Subs

1

-333 

Vegas Odds

+250 

   

Journey Newson

vs

Marcus McGhee

$7,300

DFS Salary

$7,200

Record: 10-4-0 (1 NC) 

Record

Record: 6-1-0 

3

Knockouts

3

3

Subs

3

-170

Vegas Odds

+150 

   

Hailey Cowan

vs

Jamey-Lyn Horth

$7,900

DFS Salary

$8,300

Record: 7-2-0 

Record

Record: 5-0-0 

2

Knockouts

3

2

Subs

2

+130 

Vegas Odds

-160 

   
 


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