MMA DFS Playbook: UFC Fight Night Pavlovich vs Blaydes Top DraftKings DFS Picks
Welcome to another weekend of UFC DFS lineups and MMA daily fantasy picks with UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs Blaydes on Saturday. The UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs Blaydes fight card kicks off with the Prelims at 4:00 PM ET on ESPN+ followed by the Main Card at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN+. Check out all the latest UFC odds, stats, fight predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below. As always, feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on Twitter at @consortiumDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS picks and plays for Saturday's UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs Blaydes. Good luck with your MMA DFS lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs Blaydes
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Sergei Pavlovich vs Curtis Blaydes | 7400/8800 | - | Stackability: Low | +130/ -200 | +145/-120 |
| A heavyweight banger highlights the card this week in what should be fireworks for as long as it lasts. Pavlovich comes in as the underdog, but he has the striking advantage, and the power to put out Blaydes lights with just one shot. At only 30 years old he's still growing into his frame and making improvements every fight, but we haven't seen him have to use his wrestling since his debut against Overeem where he was finished in the first round. In recent fights, Blaydes has fallen in love with his striking, but this isn't the spot to mess around on the feet as one shot could put his lights out. Blaydes has the more trustworthy cardio, and he needs to use that here, tiring out Pavlovich by making him stop multiple takedowns. Both fighters have a huge ceiling so if you are playing multiple lineups, I'd have shares of both. I'm leaning toward Blaydes to get it done in terms of making a straight pick by second-round KO after gassing out Pavlovich, but if he loses, he's going to end up on Pavlovich's highlight reel. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Montel Jackson | 9700 | Rani Yahya | Somewhat-Safe | -602 | -130 |
| Jackson has an 8-inch reach advantage, a wrestling advantage, and a cardio advantage against the 38-year-old Yahya, but he still has to be careful in this spot. Yahya has high-level jiu-jitsu so Jackson may opt to just stick to the outside and jab which wouldn't be good for DraftKings scoring if he is scared to engage, so temper your expectations with these -600 favorites. I still think Jackson at some point lands a heavy combo and drops Yahya, so let's hope that it's early and he scores well because at $9700 he needs to do a lot to pay off the price. | |||||
| Iasmin Lucindo | 9500 | Brogan Walker | Somewhat-Safe | -351 | +190 |
| Lucindo is much quicker than the veteran Walker so she should be able to piece her up here on the feet. Walker likes to brawl, and her wrestling game was exposed last time out when she was dominated on the ground by Juliana Miller, so I doubt she is going to want to get it there. Walker is durable only having been finished once (her last fight) so it'll be tough for Lucindo to score enough to pay off her $9500 price tag, but she should be one of the lowest-owned fighters on the slate. | |||||
| Bobby Green | 9400 | Jared Gordon | Somewhat-Safe | -275 | +210 |
| I love targeting Bobby Green fights, but I hate paying $9400 for him. Both of these fighters push a pace, but Green is the much better fighter in all aspects of MMA. Green is the king of losing close split decisions partially because of his in-cage antics such as shaking his head when a shot lands on him or showboating around to get the crowd hyped so I wouldn't be surprised if that happened again here. Green should win this fight, but Gordon is tough to KO with his technical striking and he scores well even in a decision so for that reason he's my preferred cash game play if I'm playing someone in the $9400+ price range. | |||||
| Francis Marshall | 9200 | William Gomis | Moderate | -210 | +170 |
| This fight is one of the sneakier candidates for Fight of the Night in my books. Marshall likes to mix in his wrestling and striking and has a well-rounded game, but Gomis can mix it up as well. I noticed when tape studying Gomis, he backs out of exchanges with his hands too low on many occasions and eventually, he is going to get caught by something and this could be the week. Marshall is only 23 years old, which makes me pause when ranking fighters by confidence, but he has as high a ceiling as anyone else on this slate. | |||||
| Karine Silva | 9100 | Priscila Cachoeira | Moderate | -188 | +210 |
| Silva is slicker, but time and time again we see Cachoeira come in at around a $7000 price tag and just outwork her opponents so be careful here. Silva needs to wrestle and maintain top control or try to find submissions because if Cachoeira gets up she's going to be coming forward and landing shots. Silva by submission is the most likely outcome for this fight, but even in a decision, Silva should score well because if you beat Cachoeira you'll need to land takedowns and a ton of strikes because she doesn't take her foot off the gas until the final bell. I'll be targeting both sides of this fight and for only $9100 I expect to have a bunch of Silva in my lineups. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Batgerel Danaa | 8700 | Brady Hiestand | Moderate | #N/A | #N/A |
| Danaa is the veteran in the matchup against Hiestand and has a big advantage on the feet which in the past has led to him scoring first-round finishes. Hiestand was all pressure on the TUF show and in his UFC debut, but his second fight in the promotion was the opposite so I'm not sure which version of him we will see here. If Hiestand is just staying to the outside and fine with losing a decision, it may kill Danaa's opportunities to score but if Brady decides to crash the pocket, we could see a highlight KO for Danaa. | |||||
| Jeremiah Wells | 8400 | Matthew Semelsberger | Moderate | -110 | +145 |
| Wells is explosive, he's powerful, but the real question is can he put together three quality rounds if he needs to? Semelsberger is hittable and in the first round, I expect Wells to be landing at will on him and he has more than enough power to finish the fight. Wells also holds a BJJ black belt from Renzo Gracie Philadelphia so on the ground he could dominate this fight as well. Wells has never been finished, and he has gone five rounds before in fights, but he does slow noticeably as the fight goes on. For only $8400 I'm fine taking shots on him to finish Semelsberger, but with an inside the distance of only +145 he probably ends up being one of the highest-owneda fighters on the entire slate. | |||||
| Junior Tafa | 8200 | Mohammed Usman | Somewhat-Risky | -125 | +125 |
| The brother of UFC heavyweight Justin Tafa faces the brother of UFC veteran Kamaru Usman but while Mo is clearly worse than his brother, Junior is a much better striker than his brother. The real question in this fight is will any of it take place on the ground because if it does Junior is going to be in a ton of trouble. Tafa is only 26 so he's extremely young for the heavyweight division but from 2017-2021 he fought exclusively in Kickboxing and Muy Thai before switching to MMA in 2022. If he had been working on strictly MMA for the past year, maybe his takedown defense would be able to hold up, but he's still taking boxing fights in between his MMA fights so who knows how dedicated he is to anything other than his striking. Tafa has more power, better technique, and a huge ceiling if he can land the kill shot but if he gets taken down even once there is no guarantee he gets back to his feet. | |||||
| Karol Rosa | 7900 | Norma Dumont | Somewhat-Risky | +100 | +450 |
| This fight is a tale of two styles so I'm going with the dog since it's pretty much a tossup. Rosa has better striking and more volume, but Dumont has the wrestling advantage if she chooses to use it. Rosa should be able to dance around the outside and land, and while she's viable for cash games I'm probably avoiding her in tournaments because I don't think she is going to finish Dumont. | |||||
| Mohammed Usman | 8000 | Junior Tafa | Somewhat-Risky | +100 | +170 |
| If Mo shows up with his wrestling shoes, he can probably win this fight, but we haven't seen him try to use it at all recently. He doesn't have great cardio by any means but for a heavyweight, he has shown he can go three rounds multiple times so we know he at least can make it to the final bell. I picked him to lose in the final of TUF and he dropped the first round before he found a hail Mary KO against a fighter who normally fights at 205lbs so I can't put much on that win. Even on the "amateur fights" on TUF he wasn't winning convincingly by any means so for that reason I'll be picking against him going forward but in this fight, he has a clear path to win and that path scores well on DraftKings so if he wins, he probably pays off his $8000 price tag. | |||||
| Matthew Semelsberger | 7800 | Jeremiah Wells | Somewhat-Risky | -110 | +250 |
| Semelsberger is going to need to win with volume or a late finish so at $7800 he is firmly in the play for tournaments. If he loses it's probably early so I'll be avoiding him in cash games, but he has the cardio here which should be his biggest weapon in this matchup. His path to victory is similar to Bill Algeo last week where even if he drops the first round, the fact that he made it out without taking much damage would be great for his chances to win. | |||||
| Brady Hiestand | 7500 | Batgerel Danaa | Risky | +110 | +250 |
| Brady is still only 23 years old so he's making improvements, and while he won his last fight, he only landed 19 ss despite having 3 takedowns and nearly 9 minutes of control time which I didn't love to see from him. If he wins this fight, he's going to need to wrestle a bunch and hopefully tire out Danaa and at only $7500 even if he scores 85pts in a win it could be enough to hit the optimal lineup. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Bruno Silva | 7300 | Brad Tavares | Somewhat-Risky | +140 | +210 |
| Tavares is durable, but Silva throws absolute heat (go watch this guy fight against Alex Pereira and wonder how he doesn't have more KOs) so hopefully he can find the KO here. I don't like to target Tavares fights normally because he slows the pace, and his wrestling is good enough to hold fighters against the cage, but he always seems to be playing it safe. I like Silva to win a decision with the more impactful strikes in this matchup and at $7300 he's worth a shot at finding the finish. | |||||
| Christos Giagos | 7200 | Ricky Glenn | Somewhat-Risky | +140 | +375 |
| Giagos starts fast, but he gases out really quickly so if this fight gets to the third round prepare to be counting down the seconds until it ends. At only $7200 and +140 he ends up being one of the chalk plays on the slate, but hopefully, Silva takes more of the ownership, and he ends up being a sneaky play for us for $100 less. | |||||
| Priscila Cachoeira | 7100 | Karine Silva | Risky | +163 | +280 |
| Anytime the fight is on the ground Cachoeira is going to be a fish out of water, but she's durable and does anything to win as shown when trying to repeatedly poke fighters in the eye while defending submissions. She could get tapped out early, but if this fight takes place primarily on the feet, she has a chance to win, and in her wins, she normally hits the optimal lineup. | |||||
| William Gomis | 7000 | Francis Marshall | Risky | +175 | +425 |
| Gomis needs to take advantage of the inexperience of Marshall and try to end up on top in a scramble and steal a round if he wants to win this fight. I don't think he finds the finish, so I won't be having as much as some of these other low-priced fighters but with the pace that Marshall pushes, if he does find the win he probably ends up with a pretty nice score. | |||||
| Jared Gordon | 6800 | Bobby Green | Risky | +225 | +700 |
| Gordon is normally a fighter I target but everything he does well, Bobby Green does better. Gordon is good enough to stay in his face the whole fight and with some timely takedowns he robs Green like so many others have done in the past. For cash games Gordon is my favorite fighter in this range since he scores 30-40 in a loss which can't be said for the others priced down here. | |||||
| Brogan Walker | 6700 | Iasmin Lucindo | Risky | +275 | +850 |
| Walker is a veteran of the spot, but I think she's totally outgunned here. Her striking is slow, and plodding compared to Lucindo and that's the better of her MMA skills. Her only chance would be Lucindo gasses out and she pulls off a late push to steal rounds two and three. I won’t have much, if any, of Walker. | |||||
| Rani Yahya | 6500 | Montel Jackson | Risky | +450 | +700 |
| Yahya is submission or bust in this matchup. He needs the fight to get to the ground, and he needs to find a submission and that’s about the only way he wins this fight. Jackson is long enough to stay out of reach, and he has better offensive wrestling, so he dictates where the fight takes place. I might take a few shots on Yahya only because he's priced the lowest of any fighter I can remember, but personally, I don't even think +450 is a big enough line for this fight. | |||||
UFC DFS DraftKings Example Lineup
Live Dogs for UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs Blaydes
- Sergei Pavlovich
- Bruno Silva
- Christos Giagos
- Priscila Cachoeira
UFC Fight Night: Pavlovich vs Blaydes Stats and Picks
Sergei Pavlovich | vs | Curtis Blaydes |
$7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
| Record: 17-1-0 | Record | Record: 17-3-0 (1 NC) |
14 | Knockouts | 12 |
0 | Subs | 0 |
+130 | Vegas Odds | -200 |
Brad Tavares | vs | Bruno Silva |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 19-8-0 | Record | Record: 22-8-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 19 |
2 | Subs | 0 |
-170 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
Bobby Green | vs | Jared Gordon |
$9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 29-14-1 | Record | Record: 19-6-0 |
10 | Knockouts | 6 |
8 | Subs | 2 |
-275 | Vegas Odds | +225 |
Iasmin Lucindo | vs | Brogan Walker |
$9,500 | DFS Salary | $6,700 |
| Record: 13-5-0 | Record | Record: 8-3-0 |
8 | Knockouts | 0 |
2 | Subs | 1 |
-351 | Vegas Odds | +275 |
Jeremiah Wells | vs | Matthew Semelsberger |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 11-2-1 | Record | Record: 11-4-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 6 |
4 | Subs | 1 |
-110 | Vegas Odds | -110 |
0 | ||
Ricky Glenn | vs | Christos Giagos |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 22-6-2 | Record | Record: 19-10-0 |
13 | Knockouts | 7 |
3 | Subs | 4 |
-170 | Vegas Odds | +140 |
Rani Yahya | vs | Montel Jackson |
$6,500 | DFS Salary | $9,700 |
| Record: 28-10-1 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 12-2-0 |
0 | Knockouts | 19 |
21 | Subs | 0 |
+450 | Vegas Odds | -602 |
Karol Rosa | vs | Norma Dumont |
$7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
| Record: 16-4-0 | Record | Record: 8-2-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 0 |
2 | Subs | 2 |
+100 | Vegas Odds | -125 |
Mohammed Usman | vs | Junior Tafa |
$8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
| Record: 9-2-0 | Record | Record: 4-0-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 4 |
2 | Subs | 0 |
+100 | Vegas Odds | -125 |
Francis Marshall | vs | William Gomis |
$9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 7-0-0 | Record | Record: 11-2-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 6 |
4 | Subs | 1 |
-210 | Vegas Odds | +175 |
Priscila Cachoeira | vs | Karine Silva |
$7,100 | DFS Salary | $9,100 |
| Record: 12-4-0 | Record | Record: 15-4-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 9 |
0 | Subs | 6 |
+163 | Vegas Odds | -188 |
Brady Hiestand | vs | Batgerel Danaa |
$7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
| Record: 7-2-0 | Record | Record: 12-4-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 8 |
2 | Subs | 2 |
+110 | Vegas Odds | #N/A |
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