MMA DFS Playbook: UFC Fight Night Krylov vs Spann
Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below, and as always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on Twitter at @consortiumDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night Krylov vs Spann
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Nikita Krylov vs Ryan Spann | 8700/7500 | - | Stackability: Low | -170/+145 | -110/+165 |
| Two top-level heavyweights highlight the card this week in what should be exciting for as long as it lasts with the Under 1.5 rounds sitting at -175. Krylov has shown he can keep pushing through fatigue which isn't something we have seen out of Spann in his UFC career. Krylov is more likely to try to initiate the wrestling, and against a power puncher in Spann I really think it'll pay dividends the longer the fight goes. Spann is live for the Round 1 KO so both of these guys are going to be highly owned, and although I'm leaning toward Krylov for his ability to mix in his wrestling and striking I'll have some Spann lineups as well. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Tatiana Suarez | 9600 | Montana De La Rosa | Somewhat-Safe | -750 | +130 |
| Suarez is coming off a nearly four-year layoff due to a neck injury, and then a torn ACL/MCL in training so it's tough to know how she is going to look here but if she is anything close to what we saw before the injury she is going to dominate here. Tatiana has the highest level of wrestling that you'll see in the sport, and she is more than willing to land ground and pound rather than hold position. Suarez has dominant wins over former title holder Carla Esparza, and next week's title challenger Alexa Grasso so this is a major step back compared to that level of competition. Outside of her getting injured in the fight, she is as close to a lock button as you can get on a card that has a lot of question marks. | |||||
| Joe Solecki | 9400 | Carl Deaton | Somewhat-Safe | -520 | -150 |
| Solecki is has a clear advantage here on the ground, so he'll be looking to get Deaton against the cage early and work from there. Solecki doesn't land much "significant" striking volume but he does throw a bunch of small shots in the clinch which ends up helping out his DK scoring more than you'd expect. Deaton is durable so finishing him may be a tough task for Solecki, but either way, Solecki makes for a high-floor play in any format. | |||||
| Mike Malott | 9200 | Yohan Lainesse | Somewhat-Safe | -215 | -105 |
| Malott is a quick finisher with all of his career fights ending in the first round, mixing in both knockouts and submissions on his resume so he's a great target in this price range. I normally would like someone who has shown they can go more than 5 minutes without gassing, but with Suarez and Solecki priced above him you are going to need a high score at $9200 to make the optimal lineup so any high-priced fighter that makes my lineup this week needs to have the upside that Malott possesses. | |||||
| Trevor Peek | 8900 | Erick Gonzalez | Moderate | -190 | -150 |
| This is a fight I'll be targeting because both of these fighters are defensive liabilities, and I'm going to be leaning toward Peek and his undefeated record. Peek has tried to wrestle in some of his fights but it looked like it really drained him as it was all power and not much technique behind it. Peek needs to pressure early and find this finish otherwise I think he ends up gassing and losing by a late finish or decision. | |||||
| Nurullo Aliev | 8800 | Rafael Alves | Moderate | -180 | +160 |
| Aliev has good wrestling and he'll need to use it here to slow down Alves. The best fight for Aliev here is for him to grind Alves against the cage, secure some takedowns and slowly work his way to finishing Alves but even in a decision with the amount of wrestling work I'm expecting he should score well. Alves has a ton of power and swings wildly so Aliev needs to be careful when closing the distance or separating out of the clinch. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Don'Tale Mayes | 7900 | Augusto Sakai | Moderate | +115 | +180 |
| There are times in his career when Mayes looks like the worst fighter in the division, but also shows he is improving as he started to wrestle with success in a few of his fights. Sakai is a world champion kickboxer but has looked like a shell of himself, so I'm banking on Mayes to wrestle and eventually find a finish by ground and pound. | |||||
| Jordan Leavitt | 8000 | Victor Martinez | Somewhat-Risky | -105 | +190 |
| Leavitt's stock has dropped after getting finished by Paddy Pimblett but his wrestling looked good and he was dictating the fight getting to the ground for the most part and that is what I'm banking on here. Unlike the fight with Paddy, Martinez has zero submission victories and most of his losses are by submission so anytime this fight is on the ground Leavitt should be in his wheelhouse. Martinez has some power, and his striking is clean so if this stays standing Leavitt is in trouble but I think Jordan gets this to the ground and finds the submission. | |||||
| Jasmine Jasudavicius | 7800 | Gabriella Fernandes | Somewhat-Risky | +105 | +500 |
| Jasmine, like Mayes, needs to utilize wrestling if she wants to have any chance here. Fernandes has a ton of power, and while she shows submissions on her record a lot of them come from her opponents getting battered first and then rolling over. If Jasmine can land a takedown per round, she has a great chance to win this fight and while she doesn't have a ton of upside, she does have a chance to win as an underdog and that is enough here. | |||||
| Augusto Sakai | 8300 | Don'Tale Mayes | Somewhat-Risky | -135 | +180 |
| If prime Sakai fought Don'Tale Mayes he would be a -1200 favorite and would KO him within a round, but that version of Sakai is gone and probably never coming back. Sakai doesn't wrestle and doesn't land more than 20-30 strikes a round so without the first or second-round high-level finish he won't score more than 75pts. | |||||
| Gabriella Fernandes | 8400 | Jasmine Jasudavicius | Somewhat-Risky | -125 | +333 |
| Fernandes has a ton of power and loves to pressure so she makes for a good contrarian play, but unless she finds the finish which is sitting around +600 right now I don't think she scores enough to pay off the $8400 price tag. | |||||
| Victor Martinez | 8200 | Jordan Leavitt | Risky | -115 | +170 |
| Martinez has the clear striking advantage here, and Leavitt's striking leaves a lot to be desired so Martinez could find success standing but he struggles in the clinch and on the ground. I'll be playing some Martinez in GPPs since he has some finishing upside, but I'll be leaning more toward Leavitt. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Erick Gonzalez | 7300 | Trevor Peek | Somewhat-Risky | +160 | +240 |
| Gonzalez should have opportunities to counter Peek's aggression and while he's far from a safe play, he is going to score 90+ pts in a win so he's well worth taking the chance he finds Peek's chin in one of these exchanges. | |||||
| Brendan Allen | 7100 | Andre Muniz | Somewhat-Risky | +175 | +400 |
| Allen has the striking advantage here and it should be pretty clear when it's on the feet but Muniz is an extremely high level submission grappler so even one takedown may spell the end for Allen here. | |||||
| Ode Osbourne | 7200 | Charles Johnson | Risky | +145 | +275 |
| Osbourne is explosive and normally jumps out to a lead in most of his fights but really falls off a cliff after 5 minutes. Charles Johnson is tough and eventually, he should be able to take over the fight. | |||||
| Yohan Lainesse | 7000 | Mike Malott | Risky | +185 | +300 |
| Lainesse has been fifteen minutes in fights before so if he can drag this fight into deeper water, he has a chance to win here. I don't think he really excels at any skill compared to what Malott offers but without having seen Malott's cardio there is a path to victory. | |||||
| Carl Deaton | 6800 | Joe Solecki | Risky | +410 | +700 |
| Deaton is tough but he is outgunned here. If he wasn't in on short notice maybe he could surprise Solecki but it's going to be tough for him to find a win here. | |||||
| Rafael Alves | 7400 | Nurullo Aliev | Risky | +155 | +300 |
| Alves has a ton of power, but this is a tough matchup for him. He makes a great play for a tournament but even in a decision loss he may score only 10-15 points if Aliev gets his wrestling going. | |||||
| Montana De La Rosa | 6600 | Tatiana Suarez | Risky | +550 | +120 |
| Montana has some wrestling skills, but this isn't a good matchup for her at all. Unless Suarez shows up as a shell of herself she is going to be fighting off her back all night. | |||||
Sample Lineup
Live Dogs
Spann, Leavitt, Mayes, Gonzalez
Stats and Picks
Nikita Krylov | vs | Ryan Spann |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 29-9-0 | Record | Record: 21-7-0 |
12 | Knockouts | 6 |
15 | Subs | 12 |
-170 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
Andre Muniz | vs | Brendan Allen |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 23-4-0 | Record | Record: 20-5-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 5 |
15 | Subs | 11 |
-205 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
Augusto Sakai | vs | Don'Tale Mayes |
$8300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
Record: 15-5-0 | Record | Record: 9-4-0 (1 NC) |
11 | Knockouts | 5 |
0 | Subs | 1 |
-135 | Vegas Odds | +115 |
Tatiana Suarez | vs | Montana De La Rosa |
$9,600 | DFS Salary | $6,600 |
| Record: 9-0-0 | Record | Record: 12-7-1 |
2 | Knockouts | 1 |
3 | Subs | 8 |
-750 | Vegas Odds | +550 |
Mike Malott | vs | Yohan Lainesse |
$9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 8-1-1 | Record | Record: 9-1-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 6 |
4 | Subs | 0 |
-215 | Vegas Odds | +185 |
0 | ||
Erick Gonzalez | vs | Trevor Peek |
$7,300 | DFS Salary | $8,900 |
| Record: 14-7-0 | Record | Record: 7-0-0 |
8 | Knockouts | 7 |
1 | Subs | 0 |
+160 | Vegas Odds | -185 |
Jasmine Jasudavicius | vs | Gabriella Fernandes |
$7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
| Record: 7-2-0 | Record | Record: 8-1-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 2 |
1 | Subs | 3 |
+105 | Vegas Odds | -125 |
Jordan Leavitt | vs | Victor Martinez |
$8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
| Record: 10-2-0 | Record | Record: 13-4-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 8 |
6 | Subs | 0 |
-105 | Vegas Odds | -115 |
Ode Osbourne | vs | Charles Johnson |
$7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
| Record: 11-5-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 13-3-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 6 |
4 | Subs | 3 |
+145 | Vegas Odds | -170 |
Joe Solecki | vs | Carl Deaton |
$9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 12-3-0 | Record | Record: 17-5-0 (2 NC) |
1 | Knockouts | 3 |
7 | Subs | 9 |
-520 | Vegas Odds | +410 |
Rafael Alves | vs | Nurullo Aliev |
$7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
| Record: 20-11-0 | Record | Record: 8-0-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 2 |
8 | Subs | 0 |
+155 | Vegas Odds | -180 |
Check out our list of the best, and most trusted sports betting and fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state.
Keep the UFC MMA DFS winning going! Check out our partners over on PrizePicks, Underdog Fantasy, Monkey Knife Fight & join our FREE Discord!