MMA DFS Playbook: UFC Fight Night Kara-France vs Albazi Top DraftKings UFC DFS Picks
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi takes center stage this weekend as we make our MMA DFS picks and UFC daily fantasy lineups. The UFC Vegas 74 fight card kicks off with the Early Prelims at 6:00 pm ET on ESPN+, followed by the Main Card on ESPN/ESPN+ at 9:00 pm ET. We ran into a really unique UFC DFS slate this week with Mullarkey and Miller going from big underdogs when the prices were released to the biggest favorites on the fight card with replacement fighters stepping in. Our Kara-France vs Alabazi main event takes place in the flyweight division and should be an absolute war with Kara-France looking to land his crisp boxing while Albazi looks to use his power advantage to KO France. With the possibility of a title shot going to the winner of the fight, I expect both fighters are going to be looking to put on a show for the live broadcast on ESPN. Check out all the latest UFC odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below, and as always feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on Twitter at @consortiumDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Picks for UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs Albazi
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Kai Kara-France vs Amir Albazi | 8200/8000 | - | Stackability: Low | -110/ -110 | +300/+170 |
| It's time to see what Albazi is really made of in this matchup as he faces off against former Flyweight Title Challenger Kai Kara-France. Albazi is explosive and has power wrestling that should give KKF trouble, but with this big of a step up in competition I'm hesitant to be confident that he gets it done here. KKF is a more technical fighter, and the last time Albazi faced a striker with this much talent, he was dropped within the first minute of the fight (four years ago). I'll have both sides of this fight in GPPs, you can stack it up in cash, but I'll likely end up with more KKF than Albazi because I've seen him face this level of competition before and not look out of place and I can't say the same for Albazi. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Daniel Santos | 9200 | Johnny Munoz | Somewhat-Safe | -230 | +100 |
| Santos was outgunned in his UFC debut taking on the talented Julio Arce but showed a much better version of himself in his second outing. Santos strikes well and isn't scared to mix in wrestling to keep his opponents guessing. Munoz is tough to get out of there and while he sports a 2-2 record in the UFC, both of his wins came against opponents who never won a fight in the UFC. I'll be leaning heavily on Santos as one of the "safer" plays at this price range. | |||||
| Karine Silva | 9300 | Ketlen Souza | Somewhat-Safe | -225 | +100 |
| Silva has the skills to make quick work of Souza if she can get the fight to the ground which would be smart since the majority of Souza's wins have come by KO. Silva hasn't shown much urgency in her fights, which makes me question how well she is going to score, but since this fight takes place in the smaller cage at the UFC Apex there really isn't much room to circle away from opponents. I like Silva by submission in the first round. | |||||
| Tim Elliott | 9000 | Victor Altamirano | Somewhat-Safe | -180 | +400 |
| Elliott has been going through a ton of personal issues, so I don't know where his head is going in this fight. Having your wife cheat on you with your training partner on your wedding night is a wild situation for anyone to deal with but Tim seems adamant that he's going to take out his frustration and wins this fight by stoppage here. The under 2.5 rounds in this spot is +215 so Vegas is saying it likely goes to decision, but I'm banking on Tim to come out like a wild man and get the finish and score well. I want to have both sides of this fight as I think it is going to be high scoring for whoever wins it. | |||||
| Alex Caceres | 8900 | Daniel Pineda | Moderate | -180 | +150 |
| Caceres is extremely crafty and difficult to get a read on, but I like him to win in this matchup. The problem for Caceres is he doesn't throw much striking volume, only landing 100+ significant strikes in one career fight, and he doesn't chain wrestle, so he isn't going to rack up 5+ takedowns like some of these other fighters. At his $8900 price tag he will be one of my lower owned fighters from the expensive range. | |||||
| Maxim Grishin | 8800 | Philipe Lins | Moderate | -129 | +240 |
| Grishin is first round KO or bust at his price tag, and Lins isn't easy to KO. He's also $8800 and the odds have dropped all the way down to -129 for him to win the fight which is terrible odds value for the price. I'll be looking to get up to Elliott, Santos, and Silva before I try my luck here. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Elise Reed | 8600 | Jinh Yu Frey | Moderate | -129 | +350 |
| The midrange this week has some really rough matchups, and it starts with this one here. Reed should be the better striker on paper and is the more likely fighter to mix in wrestling so if I'm leaning to either side it's going to be Reed. I don't think she has the highest ceiling so for GPPs you probably want to look elsewhere\, but I do think she wins the fight. | |||||
| John Castaneda | 8400 | Muin Gafurov | Moderate | -135 | +300 |
| Castaneda goes up against a wrestler in Muin, so he'll probably try to keep it standing but even if he wants to wrestle, he should be able to hold his own in this spot. Castaneda is a great mid-range target for GPPs because if he wins the fight, he is going to land a ton of strikes and possibly a few takedowns, in a loss he probably gets stuck on his back and ends up scoring terribly, so I'd avoid him in cash games. | |||||
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 8300 | Abubakar Nurmagomedov | Somewhat-Risky | -105 | +100 |
| Zaleski throws all heat all the time, so a first round KO is in play for him, but there are some pretty big red flags. First, he's coming off a positive PED test from his last fight so it'll be interesting if those impact him at all, secondly, he rarely faces off against wrestlers and although Abubakar doesn't chain wrestle like others with his last name, he will look to get a hold of you and pin you against the cage. High upside play, but if this hits the judges’ scorecards, he won't be doing enough to make the optimal lineup. | |||||
| Don'Tale Mayes | 8500 | Andrei Arlovski | Somewhat-Risky | -148 | +230 |
| Mayes is coming off a terrible loss against Augusto Sakai where he was controlled along the cage for nearly 9 minutes of the fight, and Sakai is a kickboxer by trade so that was a major red flag. Arlovski is an aging veteran and if he's smart, he would try to wrestle here but at his age, I don't think he has any interest in reinventing himself. If it stays standing Mayes has a chance in this fight, and Arlovski has been finished in all three of his last three losses, so the upside is there. If I had to bet the fight, I would lean Arlovski, but it would probably be a greasy low scoring decision, so for DraftKings I'll have more Mayes. | |||||
| Abubakar Nurmagomedov | 7900 | Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | Somewhat-Risky | -118 | +600 |
| If he wins it’s from wrestling or control time against the cage, and there is a chance that he tires out Zaleski and eventually finds the late finish although it is unlikely. On most slates a $7900 priced favorite would get a ton of ownership, but with some of these other dogs later down the card he should go overlooked. | |||||
| Muin Gafurov | 7800 | John Castaneda | Somewhat-Risky | +115 | +240 |
| He wrestles, and he does it fairly well so in a win he is going to score well whether it is a decision or a finish. I'm leaning towards Castaneda to get the win, but if Muin wins, I don't see a way for him to do it without scoring at least 85 DraftKings points, | |||||
| Da'Mon Blackshear | 7500 | Luan Lacerda | Risky | +130 | +650 |
| This fight likely gets to decision, and Lacerda gave a great account of himself last time out against Stamann so maybe I'm overlooking him here. Blackshear has never been KO'd and the majority of his wins have been by submission so he isn't a scrub on the ground by any means and while I do think it'll be tough for him to win a straight up grappling match against Lacerda I think he should be competitive enough to get this fight to the judges’ scorecards. Since I think it is going to be a decision, I'm mostly focusing on the underdog since they won't need as high of a score to hit the optimal lineup. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Jamie Mullarkey | 6700 | Muhammad Naimov | Somewhat-Risky | -435 | -125 |
| Mullarkey has broken this slate being priced at only $6700 and sitting around -435. Mullarkey is going to be the bigger fighter, better wrestler, and about the same level of striking in this short notice matchup. I'll have him in 90% of my lineups and he is a lock in all formats. | |||||
| Jim Miller | 7100 | Jared Gordon | Somewhat-Risky | -240 | N/A |
| Miller would be an absolute lock on most slates since he also has a matchup against a short notice replacement, and we now see him at about -225 at $7100 so he'll get plenty of ownership. It really comes down to if you want to lock in the free squares, or if you want to try to fade one of them and hope another dog puts up a huge score. I'll have about 75% Miller in my GPPs, and he is a lock for cash games. | |||||
| Philipe Lins | 7400 | Maxim Grishin | Risky | +104 | +300 |
| Lins came out really fast in his last fight so maybe he turned a page and is just going to try to pressure him and go for the finish. He sits at nearly even money for $7400 so he should be one of the more popular underdogs plays outside of the two completely mispriced fighters. | |||||
| Johnny Munoz | 7000 | Daniel Santos | Risky | +180 | +320 |
| Munoz has multiple takedowns in any of his fights that lasted more than 90 seconds so he has a path to a high score if he can chain wrestle here. Against Santos I think he'll need to use it otherwise it could be a long day on the feet for him. | |||||
| Muhammad Naimov | 6500 | Jamie Mullarkey | Risky | +350 | +550 |
| Naimov is going against Mullarkey so he is a huge underdog, but at $6500 and +350 on most slates he wouldn't make a terrible play. I'm going to have about 10% of him and I think that will be right around where the field comes in at. This is the ultimate leverage spot against the highest owned fighter on the slate. | |||||
| Victor Altamirano | 7200 | Tim Elliott | Risky | +143 | +350 |
| Elliott has been known to get caught in submission attempts before when he tries to push the pace too much, so Altamirano has the ceiling you need if you are trying to fade these mispriced fighters. I don't think he has the advantage anywhere, but he's tough and could capitalize on opportunities if Elliott presents them. | |||||
| Ketlen Souza | 6900 | Karine Silva | Risky | +175 | +650 |
| Souza wins the majority of her fights by KO, so her ceiling is pretty high, but with Mullarkey and Miller around her she probably needs a KO in the first five minutes, or she won't make the optimal lineup. I'm likely fading her in my lineups. | |||||
UFC DFS Example Lineup
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs Albazi Live Underdogs
- Lins
- Albazi
- Munoz
- Altamirano
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs Albazi Predictions, Stats, and Picks
Kai Kara-France | vs | Amir Albazi |
$8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
| Record: 24-10-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 16-1-0 |
11 | Knockouts | 5 |
3 | Subs | 9 |
-110 | Vegas Odds | -110 |
Alex Caceres | vs | Daniel Pineda |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 20-13-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 28-14-0 (3 NC) |
4 | Knockouts | 9 |
7 | Subs | 19 |
-180 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
Jim Miller | vs | Jesse Butler |
$7,100 | DFS Salary | $6,600 |
| Record: 35-17-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 12-4-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 1 |
19 | Subs | 8 |
-240 | Vegas Odds | +200 |
Tim Elliott | vs | Victor Altamirano |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 19-12-1 | Record | Record: 12-2-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 2 |
6 | Subs | 4 |
-180 | Vegas Odds | +143 |
Karine Silva | vs | Ketlen Souza |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 15-4-0 | Record | Record: 13-3-0 |
9 | Knockouts | 8 |
6 | Subs | 1 |
-225 | Vegas Odds | +175 |
0 | ||
Abubakar Nurmagomedov | vs | Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos |
$7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
| Record: 17-3-1 | Record | Record: 23-7-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 14 |
4 | Subs | 3 |
-115 | Vegas Odds | -105 |
Daniel Santos | vs | Johnny Munoz |
$9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 11-2-0 | Record | Record: 12-2-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 9 |
2 | Subs | 19 |
-230 | Vegas Odds | +180 |
Andrei Arlovski | vs | Don'Tale Mayes |
$7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
| Record: 34-21-0 (2 NC) | Record | Record: 9-5-0 (1 NC) |
17 | Knockouts | 5 |
3 | Subs | 1 |
+118 | Vegas Odds | -148 |
John Castaneda | vs | Muin Gafurov |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 19-6-0 | Record | Record: 18-4-0 |
8 | Knockouts | 10 |
6 | Subs | 7 |
-135 | Vegas Odds | +115 |
Jamie Mullarkey | vs | Muhammad Naimov |
$6,700 | DFS Salary | $6,500 |
| Record: 16-5-0 | Record | Record: 8-2-0 |
10 | Knockouts | 4 |
3 | Subs | 2 |
-435 | Vegas Odds | +350 |
Elise Reed | vs | Jinh Yu Frey |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
| Record: 6-3-0 | Record | Record: 11-8-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 1 |
0 | Subs | 2 |
-129 | Vegas Odds | +104 |
Da'Mon Blackshear | vs | Luan Lacerda |
$7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
| Record: 12-5-1 | Record | Record: 12-2-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 0 |
8 | Subs | 10 |
+130 | Vegas Odds | -148 |
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