MMA DFS Playbook: UFC Fight Night Holloway vs Allen
Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @consortiumDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Holloway vs Allen
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Max Holloway vs Arnold Allen | 9000/7200 | - | Stackability: Low | -188/ +150 | +200/+400 |
| Welcome to Max Holloway fight week! Max has faced every test the featherweight division has to offer, but this one might be his toughest outside of his trilogy with Alex Volkanovski. Allen is strong, and powerful so he will be landing the more impactful shots but Max's volume and durability are the key to this fight. If we see vintage Holloway come out I expect him to pull away the later the fight gets and for him to win a decision, if age and all of the wars finally catch up to him this could be Allen's sprinting to the top of the division. I've been riding the Blessed Express against everyone except the champ, and I won't be getting off here. Both fighters are viable in GPP's as Max's pressure and volume leads to tons of points for both fighters. Stacking in cash games is almost a must in most Max Holloway fights so if I jump in the cash streets this week, I'll be starting with these two in my lineup. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Rafa Garcia | 9500 | Clay Guida | Somewhat-Safe | -250 | +250 |
| The top range this week gets greasy really quick, and fighters are priced up higher than I can remember for reasonable odds. Normally in the 9.5-9.6k range we are used to seeing -600 Amanda Nunes, but this week we got Rafa Garcia at only -250. Rafa is built like a fire hydrant which plays to his advantage in this matchup against Guida as he'll be fending off takedowns. I think he's one of the more likely fighters to win on this slate, and his power hopefully leads to him landing a big shot and finishing Guida. If this fight gets into Round 3 Garcia's gas tank scares me, but if we get that far he probably isn't putting up a good enough score at 9.5k anyway. | |||||
| Chris Gutierrez | 9400 | Pedro Munhoz | Somewhat-Safe | -200 | +300 |
| Gutierrez has the speed advantage and the reach, which should lead to him winning this fight on the feet. Munhoz is a high-level grappler, but rarely uses it and instead opts to land bombs on his opponents. While Munhoz has struggled of late, he's faced way better competition than Gutierrez so this may end up being similar to Font vs Yanez last week with the veteran edging it out, but I'm going to be leaning Gutierrez to win this fight. | |||||
| Zak Cummings | 9600 | Ed Herman | Somewhat-Safe | -210 | +240 |
| I didn't even know that either of these fighters were still on the active UFC roster so do with that what you want. Neither of these fighters have fought in the UFC since 2020 and Ed Herman is 42 years old so this fight is going to be a mess. Cummings should be the quicker fighters so I'll be backing him, but this is the least confident I've ever been in a 9.6k priced fighter. Both of these fighters are viable in lineups because we honestly don't know what we are getting when two guys meet off of this long of layoffs. | |||||
| Gaston Bolanos | 9200 | Aaron Phillips | Moderate | -188 | +120 |
| Another fight with a fighter who hasn't had a fight since 2020 in Aaron Phillips is going to be taking on a high-level kickboxer in Bolanos. This feels like the UFC trying to set up Bolanos to find a finish as Phillips normally wants to stand and trade shots with his opponents. Bolanos has the best inside distance on the slate so he should be highly owned, and at 9.2k his price is reasonable for this slate. | |||||
| Matheus Nicolau | 9100 | Brandon Royval | Moderate | -200 | +170 |
| Nicolau is the more technical fighter here, but Royval fights like a maniac so variance could play out a ton of ways here. I think Royval either finds the finish, or gets finished so for that reason I'll have plenty of Nicolau but he is far from a "safe" option. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Billy Quarantillo | 8700 | Edson Barboza | Moderate | -175 | +155 |
| Billy Q needs to extend this fight and drag Barboza into his world if he wants to win it. Barboza still is one of the hardest kickers in the UFC, but his takedown defense and cardio issues have surfaced the last few so Billy will have the advantage the longer the fight goes. I think round 1 is going to be closely contested or Billy could drop it but eventually takes over, his work rate and pace leads for a massive ceiling on a slate with a lot of question marks. | |||||
| Bill Algeo | 8800 | TJ Brown | Moderate | -188 | +250 |
| Algeo is a worse form of Billy Q. Brown uses his wrestling in every fight and Algeo is likely going to be on his back for the first round, but he likely takes over in R2 and 3 once Brown tires out. I'm less confident in Algeo than in Quarantillo but I still expect him to score well if he finds the victory. | |||||
| Lucie Pudilova | 8600 | Joselyne Edwards | Somewhat-Risky | -138 | +400 |
| Pudilova's first run in the UFC was an absolute mess. Her takedown defense was non existant, and she just couldn't put back-to-back fights together. She has since shown in her recent regional fights and first fight back in the UFC that her wrestling is much improved, and against Edwards she could opt to try to get the fight to the ground. Pudilova is going to be one of the lowest owned fighters on the slate being only -138 for 8.6k but if she uses her wrestling she could score enough to make the optimal lineup. | |||||
| Ion Cutelaba | 8400 | Tanner Boser | Somewhat-Risky | -135 | +125 |
| Cutelaba is one of the riskier favorites on the slate but the pace he pushes is gold for DraftKings. If he wins this fight he likely lands 5+ takedowns or finds a finish, if he loses the fight he probably gets KO'd and both of those are equally as likely to happen. I'll be overweight on Cutelaba but also have plenty of Boser lineups. | |||||
| Gillian Robertson | 8200 | Piera Rodriguez | Somewhat-Risky | -125 | +220 |
| Robertson is a great offensive submission artist, but she gets too comfortable fighting off of her back. When she wins it is always by finish and she scores 95+ on DraftKings, when she losses she either gets pieced up on the feet or is stuck on her back and tries to hunt submissions while getting pummeled. I actually like Piera as a bet as an underdog, but if either of these fights scores 100+ it's more likely to be Robertson. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Lando Vannata | 7700 | Daniel Zellhuber | Somewhat-Risky | +100 | +375 |
| Lando is going to be pretty popular at +100 and only $7700 but I personally think he should be closer to -135. Vannata has been at wars with some of the best in the world, making his UFC debut against Tony Ferguson and having multiple close fights against Bobby Green. Zellhuber's last fight was a mess where he was outworked by Trey Ogden, so while Zellhuber may have a wrestling advantage on paper I'm not sure if it actually translates to the UFC. Vannata doesn't have the highest ceiling as Zellhuber has never been finished so even in a win he might not hit the optimal lineup, but for me Vannata is going to be a cash game lock. | |||||
| TJ Brown | 7400 | Bill Algeo | Somewhat-Risky | +163 | +550 |
| Brown should be able to get his wrestling going early, but his gas tank is terrible. His path to winning this fight is to win Round 1, gas out halfway through Round 2 but still win the round, and then just hold on for dear life in Round 3. At $7400 he could get enough takedowns in those early rounds to pay off the salary. | |||||
| Brandon Royval | 7100 | Matheus Nicolau | Risky | +170 | +275 |
| Royval is going to come out and either kill or be killed with his spinning attacks and risky submission attempts, but at $7100 that's what I like in my fighter. For this salary we are expecting him to lose the majority of the time, but we are getting a $7100 fighter with better ITD odds than some of the fighters up in the (k range. | |||||
| Tanner Boser | 7800 | Ion Cutelaba | Risky | +100 | +220 |
| I would have put Boser higher up on the list if I wasn't so nervous about him dropping down to a new weight class. Boser was never the biggest heavyweight, routinely weighing in at about 230 so the cut shouldn't be terrible for him but it's tough to tell how the speed and power is going to translate. Boser, like Vannata, is sitting at +100 so he'll be highly owned but his ceiling is significantly higher than Vannata's while also having a much lower floor. | |||||
| Azamat Murzakanov | 7300 | Dustin Jacoby | Risky | +140 | +300 |
| Azamat is giving up some size here so I expect him to have to eat a ton of Jacoby's jabs to get inside to land his own offense which could be tough for him. His run in the UFC has been a mixed bag where he either looks like a killer or just stands around starring at his opponent. I won't have much of him as I think Jacoby is pretty durable, but he has the power to KO just about anyone if he can land his strikes. | |||||
| Denise Gomes | 6900 | Bruna Brasil | Risky | +130 | +450 |
| Gomes is +130 for $6900 and I don't think we've ever seen a line like that without the fight being a short notice replacement. Gomes has questionable takedown defense that could end up hurting her here but if this stays standing she has a legitimate shot. Gomes should be the higher owned fighter of the two in this matchup so it won't be a sneaky play but if she wins at $6900 it's going to be tough to knock her out of the optimal lineup. | |||||
Sample Lineup
Live Dogs
Allen, Barboza, Vannata, Brown
Stats and Picks
Max Holloway | vs | Arnold Allen |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 23-7-0 | Record | Record: 19-1-0 |
10 | Knockouts | 7 |
2 | Subs | 4 |
-188 | Vegas Odds | +150 |
Edson Barboza | vs | Billy Quarantillo |
$7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
| Record: 22-11-0 | Record | Record: 17-4-0 |
13 | Knockouts | 8 |
1 | Subs | 5 |
+150 | Vegas Odds | -175 |
Dustin Jacoby | vs | Azamat Murzakanov |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 18-6-1 | Record | Record: 12-0-0 |
9 | Knockouts | 11 |
1 | Subs | 1 |
-170 | Vegas Odds | +140 |
Tanner Boser | vs | Ion Cutelaba |
$7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
| Record: 20-9-1 | Record | Record: 16-9-1 (1 NC) |
11 | Knockouts | 12 |
2 | Subs | 2 |
+100 | Vegas Odds | -135 |
Pedro Munhoz | vs | Chris Gutierrez |
$6,800 | DFS Salary | $9,400 |
| Record: 19-7-0 (2 NC) | Record | Record: 19-3-2 |
5 | Knockouts | 9 |
8 | Subs | 1 |
+170 | Vegas Odds | -200 |
0 | ||
Clay Guida | vs | Rafa Garcia |
6700 | DFS Salary | $9,500 |
| Record: 38-19-0 | Record | Record: 15-3-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 1 |
14 | Subs | 8 |
+200 | Vegas Odds | -250 |
Bill Algeo | vs | TJ Brown |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 16-7-0 | Record | Record: 17-9-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 8 |
6 | Subs | 5 |
-188 | Vegas Odds | +163 |
Brandon Royval | vs | Matheus Nicolau |
$7,100 | DFS Salary | $9,100 |
| Record: 14-6-0 | Record | Record: 19-3-1 |
3 | Knockouts | 5 |
9 | Subs | 5 |
+170 | Vegas Odds | -200 |
Zak Cummings | vs | Ed Herman |
$9,600 | DFS Salary | $6,600 |
| Record: 24-7-0 | Record | Record: 27-15-0 (1 NC) |
5 | Knockouts | 7 |
12 | Subs | 14 |
-210 | Vegas Odds | +175 |
Gillian Robertson | vs | Piera Rodriguez |
$8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
| Record: 11-7-0 | Record | Record: 9-0-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 5 |
8 | Subs | 0 |
-125 | Vegas Odds | +100 |
Lando Vannata | vs | Daniel Zellhuber |
$7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
| Record: 12-6-2 | Record | Record: 12-1-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 7 |
5 | Subs | 2 |
+100 | Vegas Odds | -125 |
Bruna Brasil | vs | Denise Gomes |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 8-2-1 | Record | Record: 6-2-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 4 |
2 | Subs | 0 |
-160 | Vegas Odds | +130 |
Gaston Bolanos | vs | Aaron Phillips |
$9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 6-3-0 | Record | Record: 12-4-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 6 |
0 | Subs | 2 |
-188 | Vegas Odds | +163 |
Lucie Pudilova | vs | Joselyne Edwards |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
| Record: 14-7-0 | Record | Record: 12-4-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 5 |
2 | Subs | 3 |
-138 | Vegas Odds | +110 |
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