MMA DFS Playbook UFC Fight Night Gane vs Tuivasa: Top DraftKings DFS Picks
UFC heads across the pond to France this week for UFC Fight Night: Gane vs Tuivasa. The early prelims kick Noon EST on ESPN+, followed by the Main Card at 3:00PM also on ESPN+.
Check out all of the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on Twitter at @consortiumDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night: Gane vs Tuivasa
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Ciryl Gane vs Tai Tuivasa | 9500/6700 | - | Stackability: Zero | -580/ +440 | -150/+600 |
| Gane comes in as a heavy favorite in front of his hometown crowd against a powerful striker in Tuivasa. Gane should be able to dictate the pace of this fight and I expect it to play out similarly to his fight against Derrick Lewis. Gane will likely take this fight into deeper waters and I expect him to find a finish in the later rounds. His scoring on Draftkings has been lackluster for such a talented fighter, he is a fine play but at $9500 he isn't a must play. Tuivasa is a KO or bust punt play that should only be used in GPPS. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Benoit Saint Denis | 9100 | Gabriel Miranda | Somewhat-Safe | -285 | -135 |
| Saint Denis has solid wrestling, good cardio, and a great chin which suits his pressure style. He will likely have the advantage anywhere this fight goes but I expect him to try to get it to the ground and score well in a win. Miranda has 16 pro wins, and 15 are by submission so he wants the fight on the ground as well. I think this fight could be close early but eventually Saint Denis runs away with it and likely scores 100+ in a win. | |||||
| Stephanie Egger | 9300 | Ailin Perez | Somewhat-Safe | -240 | +120 |
| Egger faces a late replacement in Ailin Perez in a fight that should score well on DraftKings. Egger is +110 to finish the fight ITD which is massive for a woman's MMA fight for anyone outside of the top fighters. Egger should use her Judo blackbelt to initiate the clinch and get this fight on the ground, and likely find a submission or KO by ground and pound. | |||||
| Nassourdine Imavov | 9000 | Joaquin Buckley | Somewhat-Safe | -250 | +120 |
| Imavov is one of the most inconsistent fighters on the card, coming in at -250 vs Buckley. His striking game looked great in his fight against two fights back against Ian Heinisch and his cardio and durability helped him secure a win over in his last outing. Buckley’s strength and power are similar to Phil Hawes who had success against Imavov by outmuscling against the cage, so I could see this play out similarly in what could be a grinding pace. He averages 3 TD attempts per fight, but hasn't had much success with it which limits his upside. | |||||
| Abus Magomedov | 8900 | Dustin Stoltzfus | Moderate | -275 | +120 |
| Abus is coming off nearly a two year layoff after some unlucky fight cancellations. His resume is a little concerning having been knocked out in under a minute in PFL a few fights back, and took a fight against an opponent who has 50+ professional losses in follow-up fight. Skill for skill he is the better fighter and Stoltzfus struggles if he can't get his wrestling going. I’, expecting an ugly fight here for as long as it lasts, but Abus’ jab should keep him dictating the pace and I expect him to come away with the victory. I don’t agree with the ITD line of this fight, I’m expecting it to get to the judges scorecards. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Michal Figlak | 8500 | Fares Ziam | Moderate | -195 | +330 |
| Figlak is my favorite fighter in the midrange this week due to the output he has displayed in other promotions. Figlak likely is the faster striker but is giving up 5 inches of reach so his best path to victory is to take this fight to the ground. Ziam has been horrible for DraftKings scoring in his fights as he barely throws any striking volume to go along with a putrid 11% successful takedown rate. Ziam was cut by the UFC and brought back solely to appeal to the French crowd at this event, I think Figlak runs away with this fight the later it goes. | |||||
| Charles Jourdain | 8400 | Nathaniel Wood | Moderate | -150 | +180 |
| Jourdain should be the larger fighter here with Wood moving up in weight for this fight against "Air" Jourdain. Jourdain gets stronger the longer the fight goes which was on full display when he almost found a late finish against Shane Burgos in his last fight. Jourdain is susceptible to being taken down, but he should have a clear advantage striking. Both of these fighters are willing to stand and trade as shown by both of them averaging over 11 significant strike attempts per minute, so even in a decision Jourdain is safe to score decently well. | |||||
| Robert Whittaker | 8800 | Marvin Vettori | Somewhat-Risky | -215 | +350 |
| Whittaker is a large favorite against Vettori in the co-main event of the card. Whittaker is a much smoother striker than Vettori, and has shown his wrestling chops his last few fights. I think this fight should be lined closer to Whittaker -150, but I do expect him to get the win here. As one of the bigger names he may soak up more ownership than he deserves against a highly durable fighter in Vettori. I’ll likely be fading Whittaker for other fighters in this range for tournements, but he makes for a safe play in cash games. | |||||
| William Gomis | 8600 | Jarno Errens | Somewhat-Risky | -215 | +120 |
| There are two different versions of Gomis that could come into this fight. One is the version that throws quick sharp strikes while also utilizing his wrestling, the other is the version we have seen the last few fights where he is head hunting for the KO and throwing everything with heat. Either way I think he can score well on this slate, especially since Errens has shown to be a defensive liability in the early rounds of most of his fights. | |||||
| Nasrat Haqparast | 8700 | John Makdessi | Somewhat-Risky | -230 | +215 |
| Haqprast has been getting manhandled his last few fights but this is a major step down in competition against former sparring partner Makdessi. Haqprast has the reach advantage here but this fight should be close and likely see the judges scorecards. I'll be looking at other spots for my lineup as even in a late finish, his low volume striking attack likely won't end up on the optimal. | |||||
| Khalid Taha | 8300 | Cristian Quinonez | Somewhat-Risky | -110 | +275 |
| Taha is purely KO or bust. He is coming off a PED suspension which can't help his already terrible gas tank. Taha throws with heat but outside of an early KO he won't score well. | |||||
| Alessio Di Chirico | 8200 | Roman Kopylov | Risky | -105 | +275 |
| Sometimes all you need to score well in a fight is the right dance partner, unfortunately neither of these guys are the right partner. Both land under 4 significant strikes per minute (a pace of 60 for the fight), but Di Chirico does mix in his wrestling sometimes. I'll take the fighter who has shown he can fight a well rounded game plan to get the win, but this is the type of play that is the last piece into a lineup | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Jarno Errens | 7600 | William Gomis | Somewhat-Risky | +185 | +400 |
| When a new comer comes into the UFC one of the best things you can see on tape is their ability to overcome adversity. Errens is well rounded but sometimes can be defensively reckless. He has no problem biting down on the mouthpiece to trade shots, and if he weathers the early storm he could score well in the later rounds. | |||||
| Marvin Vettori | 7400 | Robert Whittaker | Somewhat-Risky | +185 | +550 |
| Vettori will look to pressure Whittaker but likely losses the fight if he can't get it to the ground. Vettori isn't likely to find a finish but he likely won't get finished either. A high floor cash game play. | |||||
| John Makdessi | 7500 | Nasrat Haqparast | Risky | +195 | +600 |
| Makdessi is going to be in a close striking battle with Haqparast. He can get a win here, but Haqparast's durability limits his upside. | |||||
| Ailin Perez | 6900 | Stephanie Egger | Risky | +200 | +425 |
| Perez has one of the better inside the distances of the low priced. A pure GPP play but Egger isn't the most reliable fighter, so could be worth a shot. Only +200 for $6900 is serious odds value on the card when Makdessi is $7500 and only +195 with worse inside the distance odds. | |||||
| Joaquin Buckley | 7200 | Nassourdine Imavov | Risky | +210 | +400 |
| The owner of one of the flashiest knockouts in UFC history, Buckley is just as hit or miss as Imavov so depending on what version shows up he could roll here. Buckley may opt to use his wrestling but his gas tank is always a concern. Risky play but has high upside for his price. | |||||
| Gabriel Miranda | 7100 | Benoit Saint Denis | Risky | +240 | +350 |
| Miranda is submission or bust but I really wanted to write about his backstory here. This guy has more question marks on his resume than any fighter I’ve ever seen coming into the UFC. Entering the UFC with 15 submission wins out of his 16 professional wins is normally a great sign for a dog like Miranda, but his competition is questionable to the point where we don't even know if they exist. He was fighting in Brave FC, a reputable promotion, where he went 2-1 against middling competition and then moved to a promotion called "Face the Danger". I can't find any video of his fights from Face the Danger and their page on tapology.com has been flagged "This promotion has been flagged by Tapology (Promotion - Pattern of Record-Padding/Mismatches)." His two “wins” with the promotion were against fighters coming off of 5 and 7 year layoffs. He fights out of a legit gym in MMA Masters with some other UFC talent so maybe he does belong in the UFC, but I’ll have to see it before I believe it. | |||||
Example DFS UFC Fight Night Lineup
Live Dogs
Buckley, Vettori, Errens, Stoltzfus
Stats and Picks
Ciryl Gane | vs | Tai Tuivasa |
$9,500 | DFS Salary | $6,700 |
| Record: 10-1-0 | Record | Record: 15-3-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 13 |
3 | Subs | 0 |
-580 | Vegas Odds | +440 |
Robert Whittaker | vs | Marvin Vettori |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 24-6-0 | Record | Record: 18-5-1 |
9 | Knockouts | 2 |
5 | Subs | 9 |
-215 | Vegas Odds | +185 |
Alessio Di Chirico | vs | Roman Kopylov |
$8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
| Record: 13-6-0 | Record | Record: 8-2-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 7 |
4 | Subs | 0 |
-105 | Vegas Odds | -115 |
John Makdessi | vs | Nasrat Haqparast |
$7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
| Record: 18-7-0 | Record | Record: 13-5-0 |
9 | Knockouts | 9 |
0 | Subs | 0 |
+195 | Vegas Odds | -230 |
William Gomis | vs | Jarno Errens |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
| Record: 10-2-0 | Record | Record: 13-3-1 |
6 | Knockouts | 3 |
1 | Subs | 5 |
-210 | Vegas Odds | +185 |
0 | ||
Charles Jourdain | vs | Nathaniel Wood |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 13-5-1 | Record | Record: 18-5-0 |
8 | Knockouts | 9 |
4 | Subs | 5 |
-150 | Vegas Odds | +130 |
Abus Magomedov | vs | Dustin Stoltzfus |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 24-4-1 | Record | Record: 14-4-0 |
13 | Knockouts | 2 |
6 | Subs | 9 |
-275 | Vegas Odds | +230 |
Fares Ziam | vs | Michal Figlak |
$7,700 | DFS Salary | $8,500 |
| Record: 12-4-0 | Record | Record: 8-0-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 4 |
4 | Subs | 0 |
+165 | Vegas Odds | -195 |
Nassourdine Imavov | vs | Joaquin Buckley |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 11-3-0 | Record | Record: 15-4-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 11 |
4 | Subs | 0 |
-250 | Vegas Odds | +210 |
Benoit Saint Denis | vs | Gabriel Miranda |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 9-1-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 16-5-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 1 |
8 | Subs | 15 |
-285 | Vegas Odds | +240 |
Khalid Taha | vs | Cristian Quinonez |
$8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
| Record: 13-4-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 17-3-0 |
9 | Knockouts | 9 |
2 | Subs | 3 |
-110 | Vegas Odds | -110 |
Stephanie Egger | vs | Ailin Perez |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 7-3-0 | Record | Record: 7-1-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 4 |
3 | Subs | 1 |
-240 | Vegas Odds | +200 |
PrizePicks Props for UFC Fight Night
Jourdain O 70.5 SS
The fight is favored to go to decision at -125. He has hit the O85 in 4 of his last 5 fights with the only under being a first round finish win against Lando Vannata.
Gane U115.5 Fantasy Points
Tuivasa has shown he is durable enough to get into the later rounds, and with a second round finish only being worth 75pts Gane would need to really push a pace to get to such a high score. Gane has only reached this number 3 of 8 times in his UFC career and only once in his last five fights.
Check out our list of the best, and most trusted sports betting and fantasy sports promo codes from the top legal sites in your state.
Keep the UFC MMA DFS winning going! Check out our partners over on PrizePicks, Underdog Fantasy, Monkey Knife Fight & join our FREE Discord!