UFC heads across the pond to France this week for UFC Fight Night: Gane vs Tuivasa.  The early prelims kick Noon EST on ESPN+, followed by the Main Card at 3:00PM also on ESPN+.

Check out all of the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on Twitter at @consortiumDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
 

 

 

MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night: Gane vs Tuivasa

Main Event

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Ciryl Gane vs Tai Tuivasa

9500/6700

-

Stackability: Zero

-580/ +440

-150/+600

Gane comes in as a heavy favorite in front of his hometown crowd against a powerful striker in Tuivasa. Gane should be able to dictate the pace of this fight and I expect it to play out similarly to his fight against Derrick Lewis. Gane will likely take this fight into deeper waters and I expect him to find a finish in the later rounds. His scoring on Draftkings has been lackluster for such a talented fighter, he is a fine play but at $9500 he isn't a must play. Tuivasa is a KO or bust punt play that should only be used in GPPS.
      

Expensive

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Benoit Saint Denis

9100

Gabriel Miranda

Somewhat-Safe

-285

-135

Saint Denis has solid wrestling, good cardio, and a great chin which suits his pressure style. He will likely have the advantage anywhere this fight goes but I expect him to try to get it to the ground and score well in a win. Miranda has 16 pro wins, and 15 are by submission so he wants the fight on the ground as well. I think this fight could be close early but eventually Saint Denis runs away with it and likely scores 100+ in a win.
Stephanie Egger

9300

Ailin Perez

Somewhat-Safe

-240 

+120 

Egger faces a late replacement in Ailin Perez in a fight that should score well on DraftKings. Egger is +110 to finish the fight ITD which is massive for a woman's MMA fight for anyone outside of the top fighters. Egger should use her Judo blackbelt to initiate the clinch and get this fight on the ground, and likely find a submission or KO by ground and pound.
Nassourdine Imavov

9000

Joaquin Buckley

Somewhat-Safe

-250 

+120 

Imavov is one of the most inconsistent fighters on the card, coming in at -250 vs Buckley. His striking game looked great in his fight against two fights back against Ian Heinisch and his cardio and durability helped him secure a win over in his last outing.  Buckley’s strength and power are similar to Phil Hawes who had success against Imavov by outmuscling against the cage, so I could see this play out similarly in what could be a grinding pace.  He averages 3 TD attempts per fight, but hasn't had much success with it which limits his upside.
Abus Magomedov

8900

Dustin Stoltzfus

Moderate

-275

+120 

Abus is coming off nearly a two year layoff after some unlucky fight cancellations. His resume is a little concerning having been knocked out in under a minute in PFL a few fights back, and took a fight against an opponent who has 50+ professional losses in follow-up fight. Skill for skill he is the better fighter and Stoltzfus struggles if he can't get his wrestling going.  I’, expecting an ugly fight here for as long as it lasts, but Abus’ jab should keep him dictating the pace and I expect him to come away with the victory.  I don’t agree with the ITD line of this fight, I’m expecting it to get to the judges scorecards.
      

Mid-Range

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Michal Figlak

8500

Fares Ziam

Moderate

-195 

+330 

Figlak is my favorite fighter in the midrange this week due to the output he has displayed in other promotions. Figlak likely is the faster striker but is giving up 5 inches of reach so his best path to victory is to take this fight to the ground. Ziam has been horrible for DraftKings scoring in his fights as he barely throws any striking volume to go along with a putrid 11% successful takedown rate. Ziam was cut by the UFC and brought back solely to appeal to the French crowd at this event, I think Figlak runs away with this fight the later it goes.
Charles Jourdain

8400

Nathaniel Wood

Moderate

-150 

+180 

Jourdain should be the larger fighter here with Wood moving up in weight for this fight against "Air" Jourdain. Jourdain gets stronger the longer the fight goes which was on full display when he almost found a late finish against Shane Burgos in his last fight. Jourdain is susceptible to being taken down, but he should have a clear advantage striking. Both of these fighters are willing to stand and trade as shown by both  of them averaging over 11 significant strike attempts per minute, so even in a decision Jourdain is safe to score decently well.
Robert Whittaker

8800

Marvin Vettori

Somewhat-Risky

-215 

+350 

Whittaker is a large favorite against Vettori in the co-main event of the card. Whittaker is a much smoother striker than Vettori, and has shown his wrestling chops his last few fights. I think this fight should be lined closer to Whittaker -150, but I do expect him to get the win here. As one of the bigger names he may soak up more ownership than he deserves against a highly durable fighter in Vettori.  I’ll likely be fading Whittaker for other fighters in this range for tournements, but he makes for a safe play in cash games.
William Gomis

8600

Jarno Errens

Somewhat-Risky

-215

+120

There are two different versions of Gomis that could come into this fight. One is the version that throws quick sharp strikes while also utilizing his wrestling, the other is the version we have seen the last few fights where he is head hunting for the KO and throwing everything with heat. Either way I think he can score well on this slate, especially since Errens has shown to be a defensive liability in the early rounds of most of his fights. 
Nasrat Haqparast

8700

John Makdessi

Somewhat-Risky

-230 

+215 

Haqprast has been getting manhandled his last few fights but this is a major step down in competition against former sparring partner Makdessi. Haqprast has the reach advantage here but this fight should be close and likely see the judges scorecards. I'll be looking at other spots for my lineup as even in a late finish, his low volume striking attack likely won't end up on the optimal.
Khalid Taha

8300

Cristian Quinonez

Somewhat-Risky

-110

+275 

Taha is purely KO or bust. He is coming off a PED suspension which can't help his already terrible gas tank. Taha throws with heat but outside of an early KO he won't score well.
Alessio Di Chirico

8200

Roman Kopylov

Risky

-105 

+275 

Sometimes all you need to score well in a fight is the right dance partner, unfortunately neither of these guys are the right partner. Both land under 4 significant strikes per minute (a pace of 60 for the fight), but Di Chirico does mix in his wrestling sometimes. I'll take the fighter who has shown he can fight a well rounded game plan to get the win, but this is the type of play that is the last piece into a lineup
      

Pay-Downs 

Fighter(s)

Price

Opponent

Risk

Odds

ITD

Jarno Errens

7600

William Gomis

Somewhat-Risky

+185 

+400 

When a new comer comes into the UFC one of the best things you can see on tape is their ability to overcome adversity. Errens is well rounded but sometimes can be defensively reckless. He has no problem biting down on the mouthpiece to trade shots, and if he weathers the early storm he could score well in the later rounds.
Marvin Vettori

7400

Robert Whittaker

Somewhat-Risky

+185 

+550 

Vettori will look to pressure Whittaker but likely losses the fight if he can't get it to the ground. Vettori isn't likely to find a finish but he likely won't get finished either. A high floor cash game play.
John Makdessi

7500

Nasrat Haqparast

Risky

+195 

+600 

Makdessi is going to be in a close striking battle with Haqparast. He can get a win here, but Haqparast's durability limits his upside.
Ailin Perez

6900

Stephanie Egger

Risky

+200

+425 

Perez has one of the better inside the distances of the low priced. A pure GPP play but Egger isn't the most reliable fighter, so could be worth a shot. Only +200 for $6900 is serious odds value on the card when Makdessi is $7500 and only +195 with worse inside the distance odds.
Joaquin Buckley

7200

Nassourdine Imavov

Risky

+210 

+400 

The owner of one of the flashiest knockouts in UFC history, Buckley is just as hit or miss as Imavov so depending on what version shows up he could roll here. Buckley may opt to use his wrestling but his gas tank is always a concern.  Risky play but has high upside for his price.
Gabriel Miranda

7100

Benoit Saint Denis

Risky

+240 

+350 

Miranda is submission or bust but I really wanted to write about his backstory here. This guy has more question marks on his resume than any fighter I’ve ever seen coming into the UFC. Entering the UFC with 15 submission wins out of his 16 professional wins is normally a great sign for a dog like Miranda, but his competition is questionable to the point where we don't even know if they exist. He was fighting in Brave FC, a reputable promotion, where he went 2-1 against middling competition and then moved to a promotion called "Face the Danger". I can't find any video of his fights from Face the Danger and their page on tapology.com has been flagged  "This promotion has been flagged by Tapology (Promotion - Pattern of Record-Padding/Mismatches)." His two “wins” with the promotion were against fighters coming off of 5 and 7 year layoffs.  He fights out of a legit gym in MMA Masters with some other UFC talent so maybe he does belong in the UFC, but I’ll have to see it before I believe it.













 

Example DFS UFC Fight Night Lineup

Table
Description automatically generated

 

Live Dogs

Buckley, Vettori, Errens, Stoltzfus


 

Stats and Picks

   

Ciryl Gane

vs

Tai Tuivasa

$9,500

DFS Salary

$6,700

Record: 10-1-0 

Record

Record: 15-3-0 

4

Knockouts

13

3

Subs

0

-580 

Vegas Odds

+440 

   

Robert Whittaker

vs

Marvin Vettori

$8,800

DFS Salary

$7,400

Record: 24-6-0 

Record

Record: 18-5-1 

9

Knockouts

2

5

Subs

9

-215 

Vegas Odds

+185 

   

Alessio Di Chirico

vs

Roman Kopylov

$8,200

DFS Salary

$8,000

Record: 13-6-0 

Record

Record: 8-2-0 

6

Knockouts

7

4

Subs

0

-105 

Vegas Odds

-115 

   

John Makdessi

vs

Nasrat Haqparast

$7,500

DFS Salary

$8,700

Record: 18-7-0 

Record

Record: 13-5-0 

9

Knockouts

9

0

Subs

0

+195 

Vegas Odds

-230 

   

William Gomis

vs

Jarno Errens

$8,600

DFS Salary

$7,600

Record: 10-2-0 

Record

Record: 13-3-1 

6

Knockouts

3

1

Subs

5

-210

Vegas Odds

+185 

 

0

 

Charles Jourdain

vs

Nathaniel Wood

$8,400

DFS Salary

$7,800

Record: 13-5-1 

Record

Record: 18-5-0 

8

Knockouts

9

4

Subs

5

-150 

Vegas Odds

+130 

   

Abus Magomedov

vs

Dustin Stoltzfus

$8,900

DFS Salary

$7,300

Record: 24-4-1 

Record

Record: 14-4-0 

13

Knockouts

2

6

Subs

9

-275

Vegas Odds

+230 

   

Fares Ziam

vs

Michal Figlak

$7,700

DFS Salary

$8,500

Record: 12-4-0 

Record

Record: 8-0-0 

5

Knockouts

4

4

Subs

0

+165 

Vegas Odds

-195 

   

Nassourdine Imavov

vs

Joaquin Buckley

$9,000

DFS Salary

$7,200

Record: 11-3-0 

Record

Record: 15-4-0 

5

Knockouts

11

4

Subs

0

-250 

Vegas Odds

+210 

   

Benoit Saint Denis

vs

Gabriel Miranda

$9,100

DFS Salary

$7,100

Record: 9-1-0 (1 NC) 

Record

Record: 16-5-0 

1

Knockouts

1

8

Subs

15

-285

Vegas Odds

+240 

   

Khalid Taha

vs

Cristian Quinonez

$8,300

DFS Salary

$7,900

Record: 13-4-0 (1 NC) 

Record

Record: 17-3-0 

9

Knockouts

9

2

Subs

3

-110

Vegas Odds

-110 

   

Stephanie Egger

vs

Ailin Perez

$9,300

DFS Salary

$6,900

Record: 7-3-0 

Record

Record: 7-1-0 

3

Knockouts

4

3

Subs

1

-240 

Vegas Odds

+200

   

PrizePicks Props for UFC Fight Night

Jourdain O 70.5 SS

The fight is favored to go to decision at -125.  He has hit the O85 in 4 of his last 5 fights with the only under being a first round finish win against Lando Vannata.

 

Gane U115.5 Fantasy Points

Tuivasa has shown he is durable enough to get into the later rounds, and with a second round finish only being worth 75pts Gane would need to really push a pace to get to such a high score.  Gane has only reached this number 3 of 8 times in his UFC career and only once in his last five fights.

 

 



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