MMA DFS Playbook: UFC Fight Night Dolidze vs Imavov

Published: Feb 03, 2024

Updated: Feb 03, 2024

UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs Imavov takes place this Saturday live from the UFC Apex in Las Vegas Nevada. The card kicks off with the Prelims at 4:00PM EST on ESPN+, followed by the Main Card at 7:00 PM on ESPN+. The Main Card features two top Middleweights in Roman Dolidze and Nassourdine Imavov in a shot to move into the upper ranks of the division. The Co-Main event should be action packed as Renato “Money” Moicano looks to stop the all action Drew Dober.

Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @consortiumDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!

MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs Imavov

Main Event
Fighter(s)	Price	Opponent	Risk	Odds	ITD
Roman Dolidze vs Nassourdine Imavov	7600/8600	-	Stackability: Low	142/ -200	215./150.
We are back with 11 straight weeks of UFC action, and for a fight night card we have some action-packed fights this week. The main event gives us a battle of some of the best Middleweights on the roster. Imavov throws more volume, and can wrestle if given the opportunity, but he's giving up some serious power to Dolidze in the early portion of this fight. If this fight gets to the judges’ scorecards there isn't a lock that the winner hits the optimal lineup, but if Dolidze wins I do expect it to come early on in the fight. I'll be splitting these guys in my lineups, and while I do think Imavov wins, Dolidze's path to victory of wrestling and power would lead to a higher score if he could pull off the upset.

Expensive
Fighter(s)	Price	Opponent	Risk	Odds	ITD
Themba Gorimbo	9200	Pete Rodriguez	Somewhat-Safe	-258	-150
The top end comes with a lot of risk this week as these are fighters who are either making a step up in competition or haven't been in the UFC for long. Gorimbo has the better wrestling and submission skills and I expect him to go to the well early and often with the takedowns. Gorimbo also has a major reach advantage here so he should be able to keep Rodriguez off of him for long enough to set up the takedowns. Rodriguez has power so if the fight stays standing it would be a major mistake, let's just hope Themba does what he's best at and gets the fight down and finds the submission.
Molly McCann	9300	Diana Belbita	Somewhat-Safe	-258	250.
McCann has already beaten Belbita once, but Belbita is just entering her prime now, so I don't want to say this fight is an exact copy. I don't even like this line here and think it should be closer to McCann -175, but both of these women like to move forward and in those exchanges are where DraftKings points are created. Whoever wins this fight likely lands 125+ significant strikes and probably a takedown or two. At McCann's price we would really like a finish but with a floor in a win of around 90pts she makes one of the safer high priced plays.
Natalia Silva	9500	Viviane Araujo	Somewhat-Safe	-355	300.
Silva is the up-and-coming prospect taking on someone who has seen the top end of the division so this line is a little wider than I would like. Silva has a lot of power for this weight class and with Araujo turning 37 years old her best days are likely behind her. I rank Silva below McCann only because if this goes to the judges’ scorecards, which is likely for this fight, she probably doesn't outscore McCann. I think Silva finds a finish in Round 3 as Araujo and her suspect cardio start to fade, but I'm not sure it will be enough to pay off her salary.
Gilbert Urbina	9000	Charles Radtke	Moderate	-205	120.
Radtke has first round power, but Urbina has the better cardio, submission skills, volume, and experience. I don't think Urbina is someone we will ever see at the top of the division but in a matchup against someone who slows down the later the fight goes he should be able to dominate any position he is put in. Urbina does struggle sometimes with opponents controlling him against the cage, and if Radtke opts to go that route, which I don't think he will, this fight could slow down to a crawl. I think Urbina finishes him in Round 2. If I wasn't so worried about Urbina's suspect defense, I would rank him much higher but of all the fighters in the high-priced range he is fighting the guy who is most likely to land an early power shot.
Aliaskhab Khizriev	8800	Makhmud Muradov	Moderate	-148	150.
Khizriev can wrestle, and his cardio is better than Muradov so I think he can outwork him here. Even in a decision I think he'll need a bunch of takedowns to get the win so he's one of the safer plays in this price range if he wins.

Mid-Range
Fighter(s)	Price	Opponent	Risk	Odds	ITD
Azat Maksum	8900	Charles Johnson	Moderate	-230	275.
Johnson can't stop takedowns and Azat has some pretty good takedown entries. His striking leaves a lot to be desired so I don't want to bank too much on Azat, but he legitimately has the upside to land 8+ takedowns in this fight and I can't pass on that upside.
Renato Moicano	8400	Drew Dober	Moderate	-185	100.
Dober is a great dance partner for Moicano, and I expect this fight to produce a winner that ends up on the optimal lineup. Moicano has great submission skills and has put up some really nice striking performances as well. Dober has a killer chin and power that can KO anyone, but I think that chin has shown cracks lately. If Moicano can get it to the ground he should be able to dominate the fight, if it stays standing, he will need to be careful to not rush in, but I think he can handle the pressure.
Landon Quinones	7700	MarQuel Mederos	Somewhat-Risky	114	330.
I'm a big fan of Quinones and I think the UFC gave him a really tough opponent in Nasrat Haqparast for his debut and he was able to hold his own. Quinones is going to march forward so Mederos has to be ready for 15 minutes of war to get this win. This is another fight I'm looking to heavily target on both sides.
Thomas Petersen	8700	Jamal Pogues	Somewhat-Risky	-166	#N/A
Peterson is the better wrestler and I think he has a better chance to find a finish, but this is going to be a sloppy heavyweight battle, so I don't want to have too much faith in it. Petersen should be able to get some takedowns and I think he should be able to get a submission victory, but if this gets out of Round 1, I expect both of them to be gassed out and then it is anyone's fight.
JeongYeong Lee	8300	Blake Bilder	Somewhat-Risky	-148	165.
I don't rate Bilder very highly at this point, and Lee has some real power which I think could end this fight early. Lee does get too aggressive sometimes so he could run into something, but I think he has clear strength advantages over Bilder and that should be enough for him to get the win. He probably wins by KO, but he hasn't fought the highest level of competition on the regional scene so he could be overwhelmed by his first real fight in the UFC.
Julija Stoliarenko	8200	Luana Carolina	Somewhat-Risky	-148	130.
Stoliarenko is going to be likely be submission or bust, but I think that gives her the ceiling that Carolina lacks. Carolina has never finished an opponent and outside of a fight against Priscilla Cachoeira she has never scored well on DraftKings (Cachoeira just gave up the record DK score for a woman's 3 round fight) so I don't think you need to play her here. She's +130 to win inside the distance which works out to about a 40% chance so just a sprinkle of her in some lineups is warranted, but I wouldn't go nuts.
Drew Dober	7800	Renato Moicano	Risky	154	215.
Man, I really like Drew Dober, but I think he's reached the end of his iron chin era. He's always struggled against wrestlers, and while Moicano isn't a great wrestler I think he shoots for takedowns here. Dober has the power to KO anyone in the division, so I'll still have him in plenty of lineups, but I just am not very confident that he gets the win here. I do have a bet on Dober, and he has the highest ceiling of any underdog, but he is far from a safe play. If you are playing multiple lineups, he is a must play in a few, but I would stay at around 30%.

Pay-Downs
Fighter(s)	Price	Opponent	Risk	Odds	ITD
Makhmud Muradov	7400	Aliaskhab Khizriev	Somewhat-Risky	124	300.
I am a complete sucker for Cutelaba. He always pushes a pace, tries to wrestle before inevitably gassing and getting finished. Kennedy doesn't have a submission game, and this is a huge step down in competition for him compared to his recent run. I'm going to be overweight to the field here as I think most have soured on his reckless style.
Jamal Pogues	7500	Thomas Petersen	Somewhat-Risky	140	#N/A
Petersen is an unknown in the UFC and these heavyweight fights can change with one punch, I don't think Pogues is that great of a fighter, but he has experience and pretty good odds for his price. It's even possible he is the better wrestler (though I doubt it), which if that is the case he will dominate.
Diana Belbita	6900	Molly McCann	Risky	210	750.
Belbita is improving every fight, and she has already fought McCann once, so she has seen all of her tricks. If she can stop the takedowns this time around, I think the striking exchanges will be a tossup. She's only about +200 for $6900 and in her first loss to McCann she scored nearly 50 fantasy points. If she wins this fight, she likely makes the optimal lineup for her price, and even if she losses a decision, she should be able to score enough to help you cash in doubleups.
Charles Johnson	7300	Azat Maksum	Risky	190	650.
Johnson lands a lot of volume, his problem is he can't stop a takedown against anyone. He is more talented on the feet, but if he doesn't keep it standing that doesn't matter. He has complained a lot about fighting in the UFC Apex, and this fight takes place there again, so I think he is already in his own head. I hope Johnson wins because I'm a fan of his antics and the action he pressed, but I don't think he's going to be able to keep it standing long enough to win.
Charles Radtke	7200	Gilbert Urbina	Risky	170	300.
Radtke is first round or bust, which is exactly what you want in a $7200 fighter. I have bets on Urbina, but I have to acknowledge that if someone is getting KO'd in Round 1 it is likely Urbina. If this hits the second round, I expect Radtke to fade and Urbina to pick him apart. He is a play that can help you win a GPP, but he is not a play for cash games.
Viviane Araujo	6700	Natalia Silva	Risky	280	900.
Araujo has seen it all, she's gone 5 competitive rounds with the champion of the division Alexa Grasso, so this is a step down from the competition she has seen. She's also 37 years old so she's exiting her prime. At her best she lands a couple of takedowns and 60-80 strikes and wins a decision, it'll only score about 75-80 but at her price that might be enough.
Pete Rodriguez	7000	Themba Gorimbo	Risky	210	250.
Pete throws with power and he's going to have to land the early KO to win this fight. If he gets taken down, he's going to get subbed, but he has the strength and power advantage so early on he is going to be a problem. He is far from a fade, but if the fight gets to Round 2, he is probably cooked.
Muslim Salikhov	7100	Randy Brown	Risky	225	400.
I absolutely hate Muslim Salikhov fights. He throws with power, but he doesn't have cardio or volume. Brown likes to pick his shots from the outside and has been traditionally very durable outside of fights against the top of the division. I'm going to be looking to be underweight to this fight as a whole, but as a contrarian play Salikhov could be okay.

Sample Lineup

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Live Dogs

Dolidze
Dober
Belbita
Quinones
Johnson

Picks and Stats


Roman Dolidze	vs	Nassourdine Imavov
$7,600	DFS Salary	$8,600
Record: 12-2-0	Record	Record: 12-4-0 (1 NC)
7	Knockouts	5
3	Subs	4
142	Vegas Odds	-200

Renato Moicano	vs	Drew Dober
$8,400	DFS Salary	$7,800
Record: 17-5-1	Record	Record: 27-12-0 (1 NC)
0	Knockouts	14
10	Subs	6
-185	Vegas Odds	+145

Randy Brown	vs	Muslim Salikhov
$9,100	DFS Salary	$7,100
Record: 17-5-0	Record	Record: 19-4-0
6	Knockouts	13
5	Subs	2
-278	Vegas Odds	225

Viviane Araujo	vs	Natalia Silva
$6,700	DFS Salary	$9,500
Record: 12-5-0	Record	Record: 16-5-1
3	Knockouts	5
4	Subs	7
280	Vegas Odds	-355

Aliaskhab Khizriev	vs	Makhmud Muradov
$8,800	DFS Salary	$7,400
Record: 14-0-0	Record	Record: 26-8-0
5	Knockouts	17
4	Subs	3
-148	Vegas Odds	124
	0
Gilbert Urbina	vs	Charles Radtke
$9,000	DFS Salary	$7,200
Record: 7-3-0	Record	Record: 8-3-0
2	Knockouts	3
2	Subs	2
-205	Vegas Odds	170

Molly McCann	vs	Diana Belbita
$9,300	DFS Salary	$6,900
Record: 13-6-0	Record	Record: 15-8-0
6	Knockouts	14
0	Subs	6
-258	Vegas Odds	210

Azat Maksum	vs	Charles Johnson
$8,900	DFS Salary	$7,300
Record: 17-0-0	Record	Record: 13-6-0
5	Knockouts	6
7	Subs	3
-230	Vegas Odds	190

Themba Gorimbo	vs	Pete Rodriguez
$9,200	DFS Salary	$7,000
Record: 11-4-0	Record	Record: 5-1-0
1	Knockouts	5
6	Subs	0
-258	Vegas Odds	210

JeongYeong Lee	vs	Blake Bilder
$8,300	DFS Salary	$7,900
Record: 10-1-0	Record	Record: 8-1-1
4	Knockouts	1
3	Subs	4
-148	Vegas Odds	124

Luana Carolina	vs	Julija Stoliarenko
$8,000	DFS Salary	$8,200
Record: 9-4-0	Record	Record: 11-8-2
2	Knockouts	0
1	Subs	10
124	Vegas Odds	-148

Landon Quinones	vs	MarQuel Mederos
$7,700	DFS Salary	$8,500
Record: 7-2-1	Record	Record: 8-1-0
5	Knockouts	6
1	Subs	0
114	Vegas Odds	-135