MMA DFS Playbook: UFC Fight Night Dern vs Hill Top DraftKings DFS Picks
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs Hill is the focus of this weekend's MMA DFS picks and UFC daily fantasy lineups. The UFC Vegas 73 fight card kicks off with the Early Prelims at 4:00 PM ET on ESPN+, followed by the Main Card on ESPN+ at 7:00 ET. Our Main Event this week highlights BJJ Ace Mackenzie Dern against the high-volume striker Angela Hill. This Dern vs Hill UFC matchup feels like a throwback to the early days of MMA where fighters entered the cage as specialists in their martial art. Dern is coming off a tough decision loss against top-five contender Yan Xiaonan. Meanwhile, Hill has been on a winning streak securing back-to-back decision wins. Check out all the latest UFC odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below as you build UFC DFS lineups. As always, feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on Twitter at @consortiumDFS if you have any UFC daily fantasy questions. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays on DraftKings for Saturday's Dern vs Hill fight card. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Picks for UFC Fight Night: Dern vs Hill
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Mackenzie Dern vs Angela Hill | 9100/7100 | - | Stackability: High | -175/ 150 | +155/+750 |
| Dern is a face the UFC has been pushing for a few years, so I'm not shocked she is headlining a card, but with that said this isn't your normal headlining fight. Dern is the rightful favorite here, and she has a huge advantage in terms of submission skills but she's going to be behind if she can't close the distance in this matchup. Hill throws more volume, is more active, and isn't afraid to bite down on the mouthpiece to trade shots with anyone in the division. For cash games, this fight can be stacked as it's likely to play out over 5 rounds in which case both fighters should score pretty well. Dern is the more likely of the two to find the submission victory but at $9100 she isn't a lock to make it onto the optimal lineup in a win. I'll have both fighters in my GPP lineups, but I'll be leaning more toward Hill because if she does win it probably comes with 125+ strikes landed and a score well above 80 at only $7100. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Natalia Silva | 9700 | Victoria Leonardo | Somewhat-Safe | -1,000 | -155 |
| The "safest" play on the slate, but you are paying a ton for it. Silva is much better in this matchup, with her line swelling all the way to -1000 but her inside distance only sits at -150. Silva doesn't have elite volume, she doesn't chain wrestle for takedowns, so despite her being safe to win she isn't a fighter where a win guarantees a massive DraftKings score. I'll have some Silva in my lineups but because of how expensive she is, she isn't going to be one of my highest-owned fighters. | |||||
| Anthony Hernandez | 9400 | Edmen Shahbazyan | Somewhat-Safe | -225 | +120 |
| Hernandez has a tough task ahead of him in Shahbazyan, but "Fluffy" is always game for a fight. This matchup is going to be really hard for Hernandez in the first five minutes when Edmen is fresh, but if he survives, he grinds out a stoppage by the end of the fight. I'll be playing both sides of this fight for tournaments because both of them push to wrestle and are opportunistic when it comes to finding submissions. With how strong of a fighter Edmen is early on in fights, I'm opting for someone else in cash games at this price. | |||||
| Joaquin Buckley | 9300 | Andre Fialho | Somewhat-Safe | -225 | +105 |
| Buckley is taking his shot at a new weight class, and I think this is a perfect matchup for him. We've seen Buckley wrestle effectively when he wants to use it and, in this matchup, he has the advantage when it comes to the ground game, but where I think, he is really going to shine is striking. Fialho is tough, but he doesn't move much in the cage so he should be a sitting duck for the bombs that Buckley throws. As long as the weight cut isn't too hard on him coming down to 170 lbsthe from 185, he should be able to add a highlight reel performance to his resume in this fight. | |||||
| Viacheslav Borshchev | 8800 | Maheshate | Moderate | #N/A | #N/A |
| This is the first time Borchschev is matched up with someone who isn’t going to try to wrestle him, so I'm excited to see his striking on full display. Where I think Borchschev is going to stand out is in his ability to judge distance here. Maheshate is going to wing wild punches, but he's landing strikes at under 30% during his time in the UFC which shows just how inaccurate he can be in the cage. Borchschev is more technical and eventually finds the KO shot here. | |||||
| Rodrigo Nascimento | 9000 | Ilir Latifi | Moderate | -188 | |
| Nascimento could win this fight, but I'm just not playing Ilir Latifi fights anymore on DraftKings. It's a heavyweight fight so they normally get some decent ownership due to finishing ability, but the way that Latifi fights just drains the scoring chances. Latifi has a career 100% takedown defense and gives up 2.75 strikes per minute on average so unless Nascimento is going to KO him (which has happened twice since 2014) it's going to be hard for Nascimento to score the 100pts he is going to need at his $9000 price tag. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Orion Cosce | 8400 | Gilbert Urbina | Moderate | -125 | +190 |
| This fight should be tightly contested and Cosce is giving up length in this matchup, but I think he really shines with his wrestling. Why Cosce makes for a great play is how consistent he is in his game plan. He's going to push to either control against the cage or get a takedown and if he gets it there, he's shown he has the ability to keep guys pinned down racking up an average of 3 minutes of control time per round in his last couple of fights. Urbina has size and he also likes to get the fight to the ground so maybe he ends up being the better grappler, but it's hard to trust someone who hasn't won a professional fight since 2019 (he won an exhibition match on "The Ultimate Fighter" against a short notice replacement in 2021). | |||||
| Karolina Kowalkiewicz | 8500 | Vanessa Demopoulos | Moderate | -138 | +750 |
| Karolina is the better striker and has a five-inch reach advantage here, so I expect her to get the job done as long as she fights a smart game plan. My issue is she had the same exact path of victory against Jessica Penne and instead of keeping it standing, she decided to dive headfirst into a submission. I'm considering Karolina for cash games, but if she fights a smart game plan and just stays at range her most likely outcome is a decision win where she scores only 75-80pts. | |||||
| Loopy Godinez | 8600 | Emily Ducote | Somewhat-Risky | -160 | |
| This is a classic wrestler vs striker matchup here. The biggest advantage in this fight is if Godinez gets a takedown, I don't think Ducote is going to be able to get back up, but for her UFC career Ducote has stopped all 8 of the takedowns that were shot at her. Godinez has shown that if she is having success with wrestling, she has no problem going back to it over and over again as she showed in her fight against Carnelosi where she scored 8 of them, and against Lookboome where she scored 5. The problem is if the takedowns don't come easy early on, she abandons them. Against Angela Hill, she needed to find them to win the fight and she only attempted one per round, and against Calvillo, she only attempted two total. I'm leaning towards Godinez because of her upside if her wrestling is sharp come Saturday Night, and I'll be overweight to the field in terms of my GPP ownership. | |||||
| Takashi Sato | 8200 | Themba Gorimbo | Somewhat-Risky | -110 | +150 |
| A true pick'em fight, but I'm going to lean toward who I think is the better striker in this matchup. Sato has power and finishing ability, averaging 90+ pts in his wins in the UFC but the promotion hasn't done him any favors in terms of matchups. His second fight in the UFC was against Belal Mohammad, and he recently fought borderline top 15 fighters in Gunni Nelson and up-and-comer Bryan Battle, so this is a major step back in competition for him. Gorimbo can wrestle and has a better submission skill set than Sato, but if this fight doesn't get on the ground Sato is going to knock him out. | |||||
| Nick Fiore | 8300 | Chase Hooper | Somewhat-Risky | -138 | +150 |
| Fiore welcomes Hooper up to the 155 lb. division in a fight that I don't think anyone expected to be made. Fiore is going to out-box him on the feet, so Hooper is submission or bust in this matchup, but my real concern is the strength disparity. Hooper was outmuscled consistently at 145lbs and wasn't able to get his fights to the ground so going up a weight class, I'm not sure how he is expected to succeed. I'll have Fiore and a bet on Fiore by KO, and as long as this fight doesn't end up on the ground early, I think it's pretty one-sided. | |||||
| Chase Hooper | 7900 | Nick Fiore | Somewhat-Risky | +110 | +250 |
| I still have to include Hooper here, because if he does find a takedown, he could end the fight early. He is +110 to win, and +250 to win inside the distance but I don't see a world where Hooper gets control for two rounds and doesn't find the finish. I'll have some Hooper in my lineups for GPPs in case he finds the submission, but he isn't likely to succeed here. | |||||
| Vanessa Demopoulos | 7700 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | Risky | +110 | +275 |
| I keep sleeping on Vanessa's submission skill set but it's shown to be good enough to get it done against the lower end of the division. Her striking isn't good enough to stand toe to toe with Karolina, but she has shown a willingness to trade shots to try to land takedowns so I'm confident she at least tries to get this fight to the ground. If this fight does hit the ground, a submission even if it's off her back is 100% in play. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Michael Johnson | 7500 | Diego Ferreira | Somewhat-Risky | +130 | +320 |
| Michael Johnson still has some of the fastest striking in the division, so he could move along the outside and win a striking battle with Ferreira but if he gets taken down even once he could get gassed and end up getting finished. Both of these fighters are aging and past their primes but I'm hoping MJ can bring back some of the old striking power he has and find the finish here. | |||||
| Maheshate | 7400 | Viacheslav Borshchev | Somewhat-Risky | #N/A | #VALUE! |
| A true puncher’s chance, he's going to throw wild exchanges until someone gets KO'd. I won't be heavy on him because I think he isn't as technical as Borshchev, but he has as high of a ceiling as any underdog on the slate. | |||||
| Emily Ducote | 7600 | Loopy Godinez | Risky | +130 | +350 |
| Ducote can win this if it stays standing, but even in a win, she won't outscore some of the other fighters in this price range if they also win as she has one of the lower inside-the-distance lines on the slate. If you want to get unique this week, Ducote gets you there. | |||||
| Edmen Shahbazyan | 6800 | Anthony Hernandez | Risky | +188 | +300 |
| Do I think Shahbazyan wins this week if I had to pick the winner of this fight, no. Do I think if he wins this fight, he hits the optimal lineup...100%. Edmen can wrestle, he can strike, and for the first five minutes of his fights, he looks like the best fighter in the cage. In his matchup against Hermanson, he won round 1, but after that point, he was taken down 3 times and outstruck 123-16 in terms of total strikes landed. He's first round or bust, but at $6800 he's worth the shot. As a cash game punt play, he's interesting because he isn't likely to go all three rounds in a loss, but he should still get you 20+ pts even if he ends up losing in the second round. He will be my highest-owned fighter from the pay-downs outside of Hill. | |||||
| Andre Fialho | 6900 | Joaquin Buckley | Risky | +188 | +280 |
| I don't rate Fialho very highly, but he does hit hard, and Buckley is cutting extra weight for this fight so we don't know what version of him we will see. I'll have some shares of him for tournaments, but I don't want to go anywhere near him as a cash punt. | |||||
| Victoria Leonardo | 6500 | Natalia Silva | Risky | +600 | +1,400 |
| The biggest underdog on the card and for good reason, Leonardo doesn't possess enough resistance standing or wrestling to pose a serious threat. Her best chance at victory would be if they clinch up, a scramble ensues, and she ends up in top position in the first round. If that happens there is a chance she works enough and tires out Silva to find the victory, but from everything I've seen, especially in her last fight against Mandy Bohm, she probably gets outworked in this matchup. | |||||
| Ilir Latifi | 7200 | Rodrigo Nascimento | Risky | +163 | |
| My hatred for Ilir Latifi fights has gone so far that I'm putting him below the fighter with +1400 inside the distance. I actually think Latifi could win this fight, and it's nuts that at $7200 I still don't want to play him. Latifi hits hard, and wrestles well, but just doesn't do enough to make it worthwhile from a DraftKings scoring standpoint. If I play anyone from this fight it is Latifi because there is a chance, he's the only dog in this price range that wins, but I'm going to do it reluctantly. | |||||
UFC DFS Example Lineup
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs Hill Live Underdogs
Hill, Shahbazyan, Johnson, Demopoulos, Latifi
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs Hill Predictions, Stats, and Picks
Mackenzie Dern | vs | Angela Hill |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 12-3-0 | Record | Record: 15-12-0 |
0 | Knockouts | 5 |
7 | Subs | 0 |
-175 | Vegas Odds | +150 |
Edmen Shahbazyan | vs | Anthony Hernandez |
$6,800 | DFS Salary | $9,400 |
| Record: 12-3-0 | Record | Record: 10-2-0 (1 NC) |
10 | Knockouts | 1 |
1 | Subs | 7 |
+188 | Vegas Odds | -215 |
Emily Ducote | vs | Loopy Godinez |
$7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
| Record: 12-7-0 | Record | Record: 9-3-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 1 |
4 | Subs | 1 |
+130 | Vegas Odds | -160 |
Andre Fialho | vs | Joaquin Buckley |
$6,900 | DFS Salary | $9,300 |
| Record: 16-6-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 15-6-0 |
13 | Knockouts | 11 |
1 | Subs | 0 |
+188 | Vegas Odds | -225 |
Diego Ferreira | vs | Michael Johnson |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
| Record: 17-5-0 | Record | Record: 22-18-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 9 |
7 | Subs | 2 |
-160 | Vegas Odds | +130 |
0 | ||
Maheshate | vs | Viacheslav Borshchev |
$7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
| Record: 9-2-0 | Record | Record: 6-3-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 5 |
1 | Subs | 0 |
+130 | Vegas Odds | -160 |
Karolina Kowalkiewicz | vs | Vanessa Demopoulos |
$8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 14-7-0 | Record | Record: 9-4-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 1 |
3 | Subs | 7 |
-138 | Vegas Odds | +110 |
Orion Cosce | vs | Gilbert Urbina |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 8-1-0 | Record | Record: 6-3-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 1 |
1 | Subs | 2 |
-125 | Vegas Odds | +100 |
Ilir Latifi | vs | Rodrigo Nascimento |
$7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
| Record: 17-8-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 9-1-0 (1 NC) |
6 | Knockouts | 2 |
4 | Subs | 6 |
+163 | Vegas Odds | -188 |
Chase Hooper | vs | Nick Fiore |
$7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
| Record: 11-3-1 | Record | Record: 6-1-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 2 |
5 | Subs | 4 |
+110 | Vegas Odds | -138 |
Natalia Silva | vs | Victoria Leonardo |
$9,700 | DFS Salary | $6,500 |
| Record: 14-5-1 | Record | Record: 9-5-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 1 |
7 | Subs | 4 |
-1000 | Vegas Odds | +600 |
Takashi Sato | vs | Themba Gorimbo |
$8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
| Record: 16-6-0 | Record | Record: 10-4-0 |
11 | Knockouts | 1 |
2 | Subs | 6 |
-110 | Vegas Odds | -110 |
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