MMA DFS Playbook: UFC Fight Night Dariush vs Tsarukyan Top DraftKings UFC DFS Picks

Published: Dec 02, 2023

Updated: Dec 02, 2023

UFC Fight Night Dariush vs Tsarukyan takes place this weekend live from Austin Texas starting with the Prelims at 4:00PM on ESPN+, followed by the Main Card at 7:00 PM on ESPN+. The Main Event features two fighters looking for a title shot in 2024 and trying to make a mark on the Lightweight Division to end the year in what should be a closely contested back-and-forth fight. The Co-Main event gives us Jalin Turner stepping in on short notice against one of the best trash talkers in the cage, Bobby Green. This card also gives us former Flyweight Champion Deiveson Figueredo moving up to the Bantamweight division to take on Rob Font.

Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @consortiumDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!

MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs Tsarukyan

Main Event
Fighter(s)	Price	Opponent	Risk	Odds	ITD
Beneil Dariush vs Arman Tsarukyan	7000/9200	-	Stackability: Medium	250/ -200	450./110.
Two of the best in the loaded 155lb division face off in the main event this week with both of these men eyeing a title shot in 2024. This fight feels like the passing of the guard for me with Tsarukyan getting to showcase his skills against a nearly 35-year-old Dariush. Tsarukyan, at his best is the faster striker and should be able to out wrestle Dariush if needed here. Dariush has shown to not take damage well in some of his fights and if his chin isn't ready for a war on Saturday night I don't think he'll be able to hold up. Tsarukyan has two career losses in the UFC, his debut against Islam Makhachev and a 48-47 loss to Gamrot. I'll have some of both of these fighters, but I'll be leaning towards Tsarukyan. You can stack this fight for Cash Games if you want because in a decision loss Dariush should be able to score pretty well.

Expensive
Fighter(s)	Price	Opponent	Risk	Odds	ITD
Rodolfo Bellato	9600	Ihor Potieria	Somewhat-Safe	-380	-250
Bellato has power, better wrestling, and from what I've seen I don't think Potieria has the cardio to go more than 5 minutes before gassing out. If Bellato just tries to clinch up and get the fight to the ground he will win easily, if he tries to go out here and land a flashy KO to try to win a bonus, the fight may get a little greasier than needed. He has the highest ITD on the card, so I expect him to be highly owned, but it is tough to get him and Tsarukyan in the same lineup.
Zach Reese	9300	Cody Brundage	Somewhat-Safe	-230	-188
This line is largely due to people thinking Brundage isn't UFC caliber, but I'm honestly not sure if Reese is either. Reese has been pro since 2021 and all of his fights have ended in the first round, so he has the ceiling to put him in play even at $9300, but on the contender series he was taken down almost immediately, and although he was able to lock up his second submission win of his career, I'm not sure if he would have been able to survive on the bottom if he didn't find that finish with his suspect cardio.
Punahele Soriano	9400	Dustin Stoltzfus	Somewhat-Safe	-310	-125
Soriano has the power to end this fight early and puts up pretty good volume for someone with his power, but his take down defense is always a question mark. Stoltzfus is at his best when he can out wrestle his opponent and he may be able to do that here, with that said Stoltzfus was just KO'd in 19 seconds in his last outing so Soriano can certainly break the slate if he lands early.
Joaquim Silva	9100	Clay Guida	Moderate	-310	-110
Neither of these guys throws a ton of volume, although Guida is constantly moving so it looks like he's doing more than he actually is. Silva has had his last five fights win or lose end in a KO, but Guida hasn't been KO'd since Brian Ortega knocked him out nearly 8 years ago, so it'll be tough for Silva to score well. I think Silva wins, but I'm not confident he gets the finish so for that reason I'll have him lower down on the expensive plays.
Wellington Turman	9000	Jared Gooden	Moderate	-198	200.
Turman is making his second appearance at 170 lbs., and I think this is a much better division for him. Gooden is a tough out, but I think if Turman can get this fight to the ground, he can end it by submission or at least rack up points by taking the fight to the ground multiple times. Sometimes Turman keeps his fights standing and if he tries to do that here I expect for it to be a closely contested fight.

Mid-Range
Fighter(s)	Price	Opponent	Risk	Odds	ITD
Jalin Turner	8900	Bobby Green	Moderate	-205	130.
Turner is a real strong tournament play mainly because he starts fights very quickly, and Green is traditionally a slow starter. Turner to win in Round 1 is hovering around +300 which is great odds, and I expect that to have him be one of the higher owned fighters in this price range. If this fight gets to the second round, I'm nervous that Turner's cardio on only a week's notice is going to completely fall off a cliff.
Rob Font	8800	Deiveson Figueiredo	Moderate	-135	240.
The range from 8200-8800 is very tough this week so I'm going to look for some upside and ignore the odds on these fights. Font can easily put out 35-40 strikes per round here which would be too high of a pace for Figueiredo to keep up with, but Font has really struggled stopping takedowns and dealing with power both of which Deiveson displayed in the 125lb division. There is a chance that the size disparity is too much for Figueiredo to deal with, but I think Font should be able to get it done here.
Jamey-Lyn Horth	8500	Veronica Hardy	Somewhat-Risky	-185	240.
Horth is the better striker, and Hardy has traditionally struggled when she is giving up strength. Horth landed an absurd 73% of her significant strikes in her UFC debut, and while I like how precise she was I would like to see her throw more if she has openings. I think she is likely to get the win, but I don't know if she has what it takes to get a finish here. I'm only really considering her in cash games.
Sean Brady	8200	Kelvin Gastelum	Somewhat-Risky	-120	215.
Brady suffered the first loss of his career last time out and he faces Gastelum who is making his debut at 170lbs. Sean gassed out in his last fight against Belal Mohammad, but Belal was able to throw 200+ significant strikes in under 2 rounds last time out, which isn't a pace that Gastelum is going to push. I think Brady is able to secure a few takedowns and win this fight, and while Gastelum is moving down from the 185lb division, he is still the shorter fighter and has a one-inch smaller reach.
Julia Avila	8700	Miesha Tate	Somewhat-Risky	-142	275.
Avila hasn't fought since 2021 and she's coming off a knee injury, and a pregnancy that she admitted caused her to balloon up to 225 lbs., so I have no clue what version of Avila gets in the cage on Saturday. Tate tried to cut down to 125 lbs. and was pieced up by Lauren Murphy, so she is making her return to 135 lbs. in this fight. Tate has been KO'd in the past, but you have to go back to 2016 against Amanda Nunes for the last time she was KO'd so it’s unlikely to happen here.
Drakkar Klose	8300	Joe Solecki	Somewhat-Risky	-135	275.
Klose is a talented striker, and I think his ability to stop takedowns is good enough to keep the fight standing and at distance for most of the time. Solecki is durable and Klose rarely finishes his opponents, so this probably ends up seeing the judges’ scorecards. With a reasonable price and sandwiched between two of the fights most likely to go to decision on the card, Klose is in play in GPPs.
Kelvin Gastelum	8000	Sean Brady	Risky	100	250.
Gastelum has quicker hands, so he needs to keep this at range, but this fight is really going to depend on his takedown defense. Gastelum has struggled in some matchups with being able to stop takedowns and if he can't stop Brady here it is going to be a long night for him.

Pay-Downs
Fighter(s)	Price	Opponent	Risk	Odds	ITD
Deiveson Figueiredo	7400	Rob Font	Somewhat-Risky	114	250.
This is the long-awaited move to 135lbs for the former Flyweight Champion and he faces a tough matchup in Rob Font. Font is pretty tall for the weight class and uses his range well so Figueiredo will have to get inside the jab if he wants to have any chance of winning this fight. He has the better wrestling, and more power than Font so he has a high ceiling at his $7400 price tag, and since he has the best odds of almost any underdog on the card, I expect him to be very highly owned.
Joe Solecki	7900	Drakkar Klose	Somewhat-Risky	114	300.
Solecki is good at controlling the fight even if he can't get a takedown so there is always a chance, he just holds Klose against the cage and wins a greasy decision. Solecki has a ton of submission wins on his resume so he is always live to pull one out if he can get control of Klose's back.
Bobby Green	7600	Jalin Turner	Risky	170	400.
Green has the cardio advantage even if both of these fighters were on a full camp, but Turner is coming in on short notice, so I expect it to be even more pronounced. Turner is long, and early on Green is going to have to be careful, but if he can prolong the fight, he should be able to pull away late.
Clay Guida	7100	Joaquim Silva	Risky	250	600.
Guida should try to wrestle here, and he is pretty active in the cage so it could be hard for Silva to track him. He'll need to be careful of the power of Silva, but I could see him getting a decision win here if he can survive the fight.
Jared Gooden	7200	Wellington Turman	Risky	164	300.
Gooden is no stranger to putting out high volume so if he wins a decision scoring 70+ is likely even without takedowns or knockdowns so he has a high enough ceiling at his price.
Cody Brundage	6900	Zach Reese	Risky	190	275.
Reese is a question mark if this fight goes more than 5 minutes, and at his price and odds he is pretty good value. I faded Brundage against Malkoun, but this isn't the same matchup and he should be able to hold his own here. I think the winner of this fight probably ends up on the optimal lineup as either Reese gets it done early, or he fades and Brundage gets it done late.
Dustin Stoltzfus	6800	Punahele Soriano	Risky	250	600.
Stoltzfus has the wrestling advantage which is enough for me to give him a shot, and if you told me this went to decision, I'd say the fight is 50/50 but with how much power Soriano has it could be just one shot that ends this fight.
Ihor Potieria	6600	Rodolfo Bellato	Risky	300	400.
Potieria is the cheapest on the slate and for good reason, but he should be able to hold his own early on. His wrestling is subpar, his cardio is subpar, but if this is just trading in the pocket, he has a shot.

Sample Lineup

Live Dogs

Dariush, Figueiredo, Green, Gastelum

Picks and Stats


Beneil Dariush	vs	Arman Tsarukyan
$7,000	DFS Salary	$9,200
Record: 22-5-1	Record	Record: 20-3-0
8	Knockouts	9
5	Subs	4
250	Vegas Odds	-200

Jalin Turner	vs	Bobby Green
$8,900	DFS Salary	$7,600
Record: 13-7-0	Record	Record: 31-14-1 (1 NC)
9	Knockouts	9
4	Subs	8
-205	Vegas Odds	+145

Rob Font	vs	Deiveson Figueiredo
$8,800	DFS Salary	$7,400
Record: 20-7-0	Record	Record: 21-3-1
3	Knockouts	6
4	Subs	5
-135	Vegas Odds	114

Sean Brady	vs	Kelvin Gastelum
$8,200	DFS Salary	$8,000
Record: 15-1-0	Record	Record: 18-8-0 (1 NC)
7	Knockouts	7
14	Subs	3
-120	Vegas Odds	100

Clay Guida	vs	Joaquim Silva
$7,100	DFS Salary	$9,100
Record: 38-20-0	Record	Record: 12-5-0
6	Knockouts	2
2	Subs	5
250	Vegas Odds	-310
	0
Punahele Soriano	vs	Dustin Stoltzfus
$9,400	DFS Salary	$6,800
Record: 9-3-0	Record	Record: 14-5-0
4	Knockouts	4
7	Subs	2
-310	Vegas Odds	250

Miesha Tate	vs	Julia Avila
$7,500	DFS Salary	$8,700
Record: 19-9-0	Record	Record: 9-2-0
4	Knockouts	9
3	Subs	8
120	Vegas Odds	-142

Zach Reese	vs	Cody Brundage
$9,300	DFS Salary	$6,900
Record: 6-0-0	Record	Record: 9-5-0
0	Knockouts	5
9	Subs	0
-230	Vegas Odds	190

Drakkar Klose	vs	Joe Solecki
$8,300	DFS Salary	$7,900
Record: 13-2-1	Record	Record: 13-3-0
11	Knockouts	7
0	Subs	6
-135	Vegas Odds	114

Rodolfo Bellato	vs	Ihor Potieria
$9,600	DFS Salary	#N/A
Record: 11-2-0	Record	Record: 19-4-0
6	Knockouts	9
4	Subs	6
-380	Vegas Odds	300

Wellington Turman	vs	Jared Gooden
$9,000	DFS Salary	$7,200
Record: 18-7-0	Record	Record: 22-9-0
4	Knockouts	11
8	Subs	6
-198	Vegas Odds	164

Veronica Hardy	vs	Jamey-Lyn Horth
$7,700	DFS Salary	$8,500
Record: 7-4-1	Record	Record: 6-0-0
1	Knockouts	3
2	Subs	2
154	Vegas Odds	-185

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