MMA DFS Playbook: UFC Fight Night Andrade vs Blanchfield

Published: Feb 18, 2023

Updated: Feb 18, 2023

Saturday's UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs Blanchfield fight card kicks off with the Prelims at 4:00 pm ET on ESPN+ followed by the Main Card on ESPN+ at 7:00 pm ET. The main event features Jessica Andrade vs Erin Blanchfield in a women's flyweight bout. Check out all of the latest MMA DFS picks and strategies for UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs Blanchfield on Saturday. You'll find fight odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below. As always, feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on Twitter at @consortiumDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!

MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs Blanchfield

Main Event
Fighter(s)	Price	Opponent	Risk	Odds	ITD
Jessica Andrade vs Erin Blanchfield	8500/7700	-	Stackability: Low	-135/+115	+110/+330
For this week's main event, we have a great matchup between former champion Andrade and the 23-year-old rising prospect Blanchfield in what is likely a matchup to determine who fights for the title next. Andrade is going to be the best fighter Blanchfield has faced by far, but Andrade only fought a few weeks ago and is coming in here on short notice so we don't know how her cardio is going to hold up. I expect this fight to start off with Andrade using her physicality early and likely winning the early parts of this fight or finding a finish. Blanchfield has great wrestling and really knows how to control a fight once it hits the ground, but she isn't going to be able to outmuscle Andrade. After rewatching Blanchfield vs JJ Aldrich I think Andrade is going to find a ton of success early with her striking and eventually finds the finish. Even if Andrade wins this I still think within the next five years we see Blanchfield fighting for the belt and probably winning it.

Expensive
Fighter(s)	Price	Opponent	Risk	Odds	ITD
Clayton Carpenter	9300	Juancamilo Ronderos	Somewhat-Safe	-315	-125
Carpenter is well-rounded and should be able to find success anywhere this fight takes place. Carpenter loves to mix in the wrestling but he also has multiple wins by head kick KO, so he is dangerous everywhere. Ronderos is a bit of a question mark here since he is only 4-1 in his career and hasn't had a fight in nearly two years. In most of his fights, he isn't able to stop takedown attempts but he does have a decent enough submission game. I expect Carpenter to dictate this fight and find the win here.
Mayra Bueno Silva	9500	Lina Lansberg	Somewhat-Safe	-500	+140
Silva is the safest fighter on the card, but she doesn't throw much volume and doesn't land any takedowns. Silva has some really nice submissions on her record but her inability to get the fight to the ground isn't something I like for DraftKings scoring from the highest-priced fighter on the slate. Lansberg has some power behind her strikes but she barely lands any volume, opting for mostly one-and-done striking trying to land the big power. Even though Lansberg has knocked down her last two opponents she doesn't create urgency when her chances arise. I like Silva to win, so you can play her in cash if you want, but I'll be underweight to her compared to the field with better options in this price range.
AJ Fletcher	9100	Themba Gorimbo	Somewhat-Safe	-280	-110
Fletcher has shown a good account of himself in his recent losses in the UFC which is why they are giving him another chance here. Fletcher is going to shoot takedowns, averaging 5 attempted per fight, and even in his losses he is racking up five minutes of control time, so these fights are competitive. Gorimbo has been taken down by far less skilled wrestlers so I'm expecting Fletcher to take him down and dominate this fight. Fletcher will probably end up as one of my highest-owned fighters this week.
Alexander Hernandez	8900	Jim Miller	Moderate	#N/A	+100
Hernandez is coming in on short notice here but that shouldn't matter much in this fight. Hernandez is on short notice but that shouldn't change much as Hernandez always fades after the first round anyway. I think Hernandez is able to find the finish early and makes for a great GPP or cash game play.
Philipe Lins	8800	Ovince Saint Preux	Moderate	-215	+180
Lins was a PFL champion but hasn't looked anything like that form of himself since coming into the UFC. Lins has been using his wrestling more, and OSP's form has looked awful after trying to reinvent himself at heavyweight. I think Lins gets this done fairly easily, but it all depends on which version of OSP shows up on Saturday night.

Mid-Range
Fighter(s)	Price	Opponent	Risk	Odds	ITD
Nazim Sadykhov	8600	Evan Elder	Moderate	-195	+165
Sadykhov fights out of Ray Longo's camp on Long Island, so you know he is getting plenty of quality looks in the gym and I expect him to be the more technical fighter here. Sadykhov has the power to finish this fight, but he shouldn't have trouble even if the fight hits the mat.
William Knight	8200	Marcin Prachnio	Moderate	-125	+140
This fight is -210 to not go to decision and with these fighters priced at 8200/8000 if one of them wins inside the distance they end up on the optimal lineup. Knight is absolutely jacked which leads to him gassing quickly, but his offensive wrestling has looked improved of late so if he can jump out to the early lead with some takedowns he could win this fight quickly. Knight doesn't land much striking volume so in a decision unless he gets 6+ takedowns he is going to score well, but I'm going to assume he finds the finish here within the first two rounds.
Marcin Prachnio	8000	William Knight	Somewhat-Risky	+105	+225
On the other side of the mid-range priced fight, Prachnio throws way more volume than Knight so if he keeps it standing and off the cage he could eventually finish Knight on the feet. I'll be playing both sides of this matchup in lineups
Jamall Emmers	7900	Khusein Askhabov	Somewhat-Risky	+135	+300
I have been a sucker for Emmers since he made his UFC debut. Emmers has good wrestling, pretty good striking, and good cardio so what shouldn't I like? Emmers' problem is that he puts himself into horrible positions in almost all of his fights. In his loss vs Giga Chikadze (high-level kick boxer), he decided for the first 8 minutes of the fight to stand and trade shots instead of wrestling. Once he started wrestling in the third round, he controlled the entire round and out-landed him 34-14. His opponent hasn't fought since 2020 but holds a 23-0 record and trains at some of the best gyms in the world, but something seems fishy since Askhabov's last few opponents have records of 3-1, 7-1, and 14-8.
Khusein Askhabov	8300	Jamall Emmers	Somewhat-Risky	-155	+180
Askhabov splits time at Tiger Muy Thai, and ATT in Florida from what I can find so he is training with the highest-level fighters in the sport. He hasn't fought in over three years but does have a perfect 23-0, even if it is against guys who seem like total cans. He loves to start fights off with leg kicks, and transition into wrestling but we haven't seen him tested for long stretches of time so while he could come off of this three-year layoff and look career best, he could just as easily come out and get outwrestled for 15 minutes.
Evan Elder	7600	Nazim Sadykhov	Somewhat-Risky	+165	+350
Elder is well-rounded but I do not think he is going to excel in any one area of this fight so for that reason I'll be leaving him out of most or all of my lineups.

Pay-Downs
Fighter(s)	Price	Opponent	Risk	Odds	ITD
Jim Miller	7300	Alexander Hernandez	Somewhat-Risky	+190	+300
Miller is a veteran of the sport and while nothing he does is extremely flashy, he is a grinder and that type of pace is the style of fight that can break Alexander Hernandez. Miller wins this fight about 30-40% of the time but he hits the optimal in most of the scenarios that he does win. I'll have a bet on Miller by submission since I think the line for that is off, but he is still a risky play.
Josh Parisian	7200	Jamal Pogues	Somewhat-Risky	+210	+500
Parisian needs to discourage Pogues early if he wants to stand a chance here otherwise this one could get away from him quickly. From Pogues' other fights, if he doesn't find success with the wrestling early, he'll just give up on it all together to try to save some energy but if he lands an early takedown he will make you fight off your back for the entire fight. Parisian likely won't find the finish here but in his price range, a win might be enough to get the job done and hit the optimal lineup.
Jordan Wright	7000	Zac Pauga	Risky	+230	+275
Wright is kill or be killed which is why he keeps getting chances in the UFC despite going 0-3 in his last few fights. He is normally massive for 185 lbs but this move up to 205 lbs may be exactly what he needs to fix his chin issues. Pauga is far from a proven talent, so Wright is more than live in this spot to land the early takedown and find a finish.
Juancamilo Ronderos	6900	Clayton Carpenter	Risky	+260	+450
Ronderos is only 4-1 as a professional and has never won by KO so I don't even want to say he has a puncher's chance here. Ronderos' best chance of winning this fight is finding a submission, and since Carpenter likes to utilize his wrestling he may be able to have some time on the ground, even if he is off of his back, to find submission attempts.
Themba Gorimbo	7100	AJ Fletcher	Risky	+235	+400
Gorimbo is a wild striker who has no problem taking one to give one, but his takedown defense leaves a lot to be desired. This seems like a knockout or bust spot for Gorimbo.
Lina Lansberg	6700	Mayra Bueno Silva	Risky	+400	+1,200
Lansberg has knocked down her last two opponents, so she has some power, but her lack of follow-up shots and finishing ability makes her almost impossible to play on this slate.
Ovince Saint Preux	7400	Philipe Lins	Risky	+185	+330
If OSP can roll back the clock her can win this fight, but even in his recent wins he throws almost no volume and doesn't attempt more than a few takedowns. He's always live to finish via "Van Flue" choke since he has the most finishes in UFC history with the move, but it's a tough ask against a monster in Lins.

MMA DFS Example Lineup

UFC Fight Night Live Dogs

Emmers, Miller, Parisian, Wright

UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs Blanchfield Stats and Picks


Jessica Andrade	vs	Erin Blanchfield
$8,500	DFS Salary	$7,700
Record: 24-9-0	Record	Record: 10-1-0
9	Knockouts	2
8	Subs	3
-135	Vegas Odds	+115

Jordan Wright	vs	Zac Pauga
$7,000	DFS Salary	$9,200
Record: 12-4-0 (1 NC)	Record	Record: 6-1-0
7	Knockouts	1
5	Subs	0
+230	Vegas Odds	-275

Josh Parisian	vs	Jamal Pogues
$7,200	DFS Salary	$9,000
Record: 15-5-0	Record	Record: 9-3-0
11	Knockouts	4
2	Subs	1
+210	Vegas Odds	-250

William Knight	vs	Marcin Prachnio
$8,200	DFS Salary	$8,000
Record: 11-4-0	Record	Record: 15-6-0
9	Knockouts	11
0	Subs	1
-125	Vegas Odds	+105

Jim Miller	vs	Alexander Hernandez
$7,300	DFS Salary	$8,900
Record: 35-16-0 (1 NC)	Record	Record: 13-6-0
6	Knockouts	6
19	Subs	2
+190	Vegas Odds	-235

Nazim Sadykhov	vs	Evan Elder
$8,600	DFS Salary	$7,600
Record: 7-1-0	Record	Record: 7-1-0
5	Knockouts	4
1	Subs	1
-195	Vegas Odds	+165

Lina Lansberg	vs	Mayra Bueno Silva
$6,700	DFS Salary	$9,500
Record: 10-7-0	Record	Record: 9-2-1
4	Knockouts	1
0	Subs	6
+390	Vegas Odds	-490

Jamall Emmers	vs	Khusein Askhabov
$7,900	DFS Salary	$8,300
Record: 18-6-0	Record	Record: 23-0-0
7	Knockouts	6
3	Subs	10
+135	Vegas Odds	-155

Ovince Saint Preux	vs	Philipe Lins
$7,400	DFS Salary	$8,800
Record: 26-16-0	Record	Record: 15-5-0
12	Knockouts	8
8	Subs	4
+185	Vegas Odds	-215

AJ Fletcher	vs	Themba Gorimbo
$9,100	DFS Salary	$7,100
Record: 9-2-0	Record	Record: 10-3-0
4	Knockouts	1
4	Subs	6
-275	Vegas Odds	+235

Clayton Carpenter	vs	Juancamilo Ronderos
$9,300	DFS Salary	$6,900
Record: 6-0-0	Record	Record: 4-1-0
2	Knockouts	0
2	Subs	2
-315	Vegas Odds	+260

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