MMA DFS Playbook: UFC Fight Night Almeida vs Lewis Top DraftKings UFC DFS Picks
UFC Fight Night Almeida vs Lewis kicks off from Sao Paulo Brazil with the Prelims at 6:00 PM on ESPN+, followed by the Main Card at 9:00 PM on ESPN+. The main event features up-and-coming submission specialist Jailton Almeida against fan favorite Derrick Lewis in a fight that could be over within the first few minutes. A win for Almeida will catapult him toward the top of the division and put him in line for a title shot in 2024.
Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on Twitter at @consortiumDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Lewis
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Jailton Almeida vs Derrick Lewis | 9600/6600 | - | Stackability: Low | -485/ +370 | -450/425. |
| Top prospect Jailton Almeida takes on "The Black Beast" Derrick Lewis in this week's main event which should be fun for as long as it lasts. I'd be shocked if this fight went into the second round with how these two like to fight, but every once in a while, Lewis does see the judges’ scorecards. Almeida has been slicing through the competition with relative ease, and I look for him to use his grappling here to neutralize Lewis's power. Almeida might only need one takedown to end this fight, and I'm banking that he gets it early and finishes the fight quickly. Lewis is always living for a KO and if he does win this fight, it's going to be by KO in the first round so he'll score extremely well at his super cheap price tag. I'll have mostly Almeida in my lineups, with a sprinkle of Lewis. If I play cash games like double-ups this week, I am not stacking this fight and will likely just lean toward Almeida. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Ismael Bonfim | 9500 | Vinc Pichel | Somewhat-Safe | -520 | -225 |
| Bonfim is explosive and takes on a fighter who is going to be turning 41 years old soon, so everything points to this being a setup fight for him. Bonfim is way faster, sharper, and more technical than Pichel which makes him one of the best players on the slate. If Pichel does survive the early onslaught, he may be able to slow down the pace of the fight using his wrestling, but I think Bonfim is good enough to win even if this fight does get extended. | |||||
| Eduarda Moura | 9400 | Montserrat Conejo Ruiz | Somewhat-Safe | -600 | N/A |
| Moura looks like the real deal from what I've seen from her on the regional scene and the contender series. She should have the striking advantage and grappling advantage here so I'm not worried wherever this fight may go. Ruiz does have crafty takedowns, but even if she does get the takedown, I think that Moura will be able to reverse the position and get the fight where she wants it. I think Moura gets it done by submission in the second round. | |||||
| Gabriel Bonfim | 9300 | Nicolas Dalby | Somewhat-Safe | -625 | -225 |
| The other Bonfim brother has better odds to win the fight, but I'm a little more concerned with this matchup. Dalby is far from a world-beater, but he is good at holding his opponents against the cage and stalling out the clock. Gabriel has all the same advantages as his brother here, but Dalby has been very durable in his career and if he slows this fight down enough it may just kill the ability for G. Bonfim to score well on DK. I still like him as a play but have him as my third favorite high-end play. | |||||
| Rinat Fakhretdinov | 9100 | Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | Moderate | -375 | N/A |
| Fakhretdinov is averaging nearly 6 takedowns and 45 significant strikes per fifteen minutes in his UFC career so far, so his floor is pretty high even in a decision victory. He isn't as likely to win as some of the other high-priced fighters but if he does win it probably involves a lot of wrestling and control time so he could very well break the slate even in a decision win. Zaleski is the more explosive fighter on the feet, so he'll need to be careful when he enters the pocket, but I think he is good enough to win a decision here. | |||||
| Caio Borralho | 9200 | Abus Magomedov | Moderate | -298 | 100. |
| Borralho is tough to figure out from a DraftKings scoring stance. His wrestling is good, and his control game once he gets his opponent down is extremely strong, but he is more than comfortable just sitting in top control or latching onto someone's back and throwing next to no strikes for an entire round. Abus does have some power and is explosive so the first five minutes could be tough, but if he makes it past Round 1 Borralho should be able to have his way with this fight. What makes or breaks Caio's scoring this week is if Abus gasses out to the point where he gets submitted or if he can hold on until this reaches the judges’ scorecards. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Daniel Marcos | 8900 | Victor Hugo | Moderate | -245 | 120. |
| Marcos is going to be the much better striker in the matchup and as long as this stays standing, he should be able to keep his undefeated 15-0 record intact. Hugo is talented in his own right on the ground and hasn't lost a fight since 2014, so this is by far an easy task for Marcos. I believe both of these fighters could win this fight, it is just going to be determined by who can keep the fight where they want it for longer and Marcos has stuffed 17 of 19 takedown attempts against him in the UFC so I'll bank on that experience here. | |||||
| Marc Diakiese | 8600 | Kaue Fernandes | Moderate | -192 | N/A |
| Diakiese when at his best works his wrestling and can land a ton of takedowns in a win, but he isn't the most trustworthy fighter. He's as likely to go out and try to rely on his striking as he is going for takedowns, but if he does wrestle here I think he could have a massive advantage. This line has moved about 45 pts in the last few days in favor of Diakiese so he could be highly owned at his odds value. | |||||
| Elves Brener | 8200 | Somewhat-Risky | -210 | N/A | |
| Brener is facing a short-notice replacement and comes in at over a -200 favorite for only $8200 so he should be one of the highest-owned fighters on the slate. Brener has some solid submission skills, but Kaynan has 9 of his 15 wins by submission so those skills could cancel out. In his first two UFC fights, he was over +450 underdog in both of them and won them both, so he has no problem going into a dog fight. I'll be on Brener here but I'm not going to be fading a great contrarian play in Kaynan because if he somehow landed on top in a scramble and controlled the fight on the ground. | |||||
| Rodrigo Nascimento | 8800 | Don'Tale Mayes | Somewhat-Risky | -198 | 130. |
| Normally I like to target low-level heavyweight fights, but Don'Tale Mayes really sucks the wind out of most of his fights. This is a rematch that no one wanted to see but in the majority of rematches the original winner wins it again. Nascimento was able to sub Mayes in the second round of that fight and I expect a similar result if it gets to the ground, but if Mayes is going to just try to maintain distance to avoid the takedowns, this could turn into a snoozefest. | |||||
| Angela Hill | 7800 | Denise Gomes | Somewhat-Risky | 114 | N/A |
| Hill takes a major step down in competition after fighting mostly the top 15 of the division and this is normally where she shines. Her recent losses to Dern (#7 in the division), Lemos (#4), and Jandiroba (#6) show that she is tough enough to get to the judges’ scorecards with anyone in the division and whenever someone from outside the top 10 steps up to face her she normally gives a good account of herself. Hill has proven cardio, and while she is giving up some power, I think she has the speed advantage, especially later in the fight. Hill doesn't have the upside of some of the other underdogs on the card, but she could score 70-75 in a win and that might be enough if only a few dogs win. | |||||
| Armen Petrosyan | 8300 | Rodolfo Vieira | Somewhat-Risky | -115 | 225. |
| Petrosyan is going to be a leverage play as Vieira probably comes in highly owned due to being $7900 and -105. Petrosyan is the much better striker, has better cardio, and should be able to control the fight. The major concern is that if Vieira gets the fight to the ground his submission skills are amongst the best in the division. If this stays standing, I wouldn't be shocked for Petrosyan was able to KO Vieira late, but he needs to be careful in the first round. | |||||
| Rodolfo Vieira | 7900 | Armen Petrosyan | Risky | -105 | 140. |
| Vieira has the path to a huge score by first round submission, and his cardio isn't as bad as it once was, but it still isn't great. Against Chris Curtis, he shot 20 takedowns so at least he knows where he needs the fight to go, which isn't something every fighter seems to know. If he gets the fight to the ground, he probably looks like a -400 favorite, but if it stays standing he'll look like he should have been the biggest dog on the card. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Abus Magomedov | 7000 | Caio Borralho | Somewhat-Risky | 240 | 400. |
| Abus is going to be highly owned compared to some of these other underdogs, but it is for good reason. In Round 1 against Sean Strickland, he looked like the much better fighter, outstriking the current champ at nearly a 2 to 1 rate. His issue is that after the first round, his cardio completely fell off of a clip and he ended up getting finished in the second round. If he had cardio issues striking with Strickland, I don't think wrestling is going to help that issue, but he has a five-minute window where he could break the slate. | |||||
| Victor Hugo | 7300 | Daniel Marcos | Somewhat-Risky | 200 | 380. |
| Hugo has a clear advantage in terms of submission skills here and the inside the distance odds indicate that he likely gets a finish in a win. At $7300 to have a fighter with a clear advantage is more than enough to play him in lineups, and with 28 professional fights under his belt I don't think the bright lights are going to be too much for him. | |||||
| Kaue Fernandes | 7600 | Marc Diakiese | Risky | 160 | N/A |
| Fernandes only has 9 career fights under his belt, but he has a ton of power, and one thing we've seen is that Diakiese sometimes gets careless in the pocket so I wouldn't be shocked if he got caught. | |||||
| Don'Tale Mayes | 7400 | Rodrigo Nascimento | Risky | 164 | 400. |
| This is an ugly fight, and I don't want to have too many Mayes in my lineups, but at $7400 his odds of +164 are great value. He is the better striker, but if he gets taken down, I don't think he has anything to offer off his back. It's heavyweight so expect the unexpected. | |||||
| Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos | 7100 | Rinat Fakhretdinov | Risky | 295 | N/A |
| He's the more explosive fighter in this matchup and Rinat hasn't fought anyone of note in the division so he could catch an overconfident fighter here. I'd say he is KO or bust, but in his home country he may be able to get a greasy decision if he lands some explosive strikes, and Rinat only controls him with wrestling but doesn't actually do any damage. | |||||
| Modestas Bukauskas | 7200 | Vitor Petrino | Risky | 195 | 425. |
| Bukauskas has had a bit of a resurgence in his return to the UFC, but he has a tough task with the undefeated Petrino here. Bukauskas has a little bit longer reach, and his best chance to win here is to make this fight boring and have it mostly contain small combinations instead of long exchanges in the pocket where Petrino could land his power. I probably won't have much Bukauskas since Petrino has never been KO'd and he won't be wrestling. | |||||
| Nicolas Dalby | 6900 | Gabriel Bonfim | Risky | 455 | 1100 |
| Dalby is notoriously durable, but he needs to draw this into deep waters against Bonfim if he wants to even the playing field. Bonfim is much more explosive, so until Bonfim slows down Dalby is going to be playing catchup. He's a long shot play but will come in very low owned. | |||||
| Vinc Pichel | 6700 | Ismael Bonfim | Risky | 390 | 1100 |
| I'm a Pichel fan, but at nearly 41 years old and missing weight I don't love him as a play. He'll need to implement the same game plan as Dalby to win this fight, and while I probably should just fade him, I'll have some lineups with him in case he can turn back the clock and live up to the "From Hell" nickname. | |||||
Sample Lineup
GPP
Cash Games
Picks and Stats
Jailton Almeida | vs | Derrick Lewis |
$9,600 | DFS Salary | $6,600 |
| Record: 19-2-0 | Record | Record: 27-11-0 (1 NC) |
7 | Knockouts | 22 |
12 | Subs | 1 |
-485 | Vegas Odds | -200 |
Gabriel Bonfim | vs | Nicolas Dalby |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
| Record: 15-0-0 | Record | Record: 22-4-1 (2 NC) |
3 | Knockouts | 6 |
12 | Subs | 4 |
-625 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
Rodrigo Nascimento | vs | Don'Tale Mayes |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 10-1-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 10-5-0 (1 NC) |
2 | Knockouts | 6 |
6 | Subs | 1 |
-198 | Vegas Odds | 164 |
Caio Borralho | vs | Abus Magomedov |
$9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 14-1-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 25-5-1 |
4 | Knockouts | 14 |
4 | Subs | 6 |
-298 | Vegas Odds | 240 |
Rodolfo Vieira | vs | Armen Petrosyan |
$7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
| Record: 9-2-0 | Record | Record: 9-2-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 6 |
8 | Subs | 0 |
-105 | Vegas Odds | -115 |
0 | ||
Ismael Bonfim | vs | Vinc Pichel |
$9,500 | DFS Salary | $6,700 |
| Record: 19-4-0 | Record | Record: 14-3-0 |
9 | Knockouts | 8 |
4 | Subs | 0 |
-520 | Vegas Odds | 390 |
Elves Brener | vs | Kaynan Kruschewsky |
$8,200 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 15-3-0 | Record | Record: 15-1-0 (1 NC) |
2 | Knockouts | 6 |
11 | Subs | 4 |
Vegas Odds | ||
Rinat Fakhretdinov | vs | Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 21-1-0 | Record | Record: 24-7-0 |
14 | Knockouts | 11 |
3 | Subs | 6 |
-375 | Vegas Odds | 295 |
Victor Hugo | vs | Daniel Marcos |
$7,300 | DFS Salary | $8,900 |
| Record: 24-4-0 | Record | Record: 15-0-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 8 |
10 | Subs | 0 |
200 | Vegas Odds | -245 |
Vitor Petrino | vs | Modestas Bukauskas |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 9-0-0 | Record | Record: 15-5-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 9 |
1 | Subs | 2 |
-238 | Vegas Odds | 195 |
Angela Hill | vs | Denise Gomes |
$7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
| Record: 15-13-0 | Record | Record: 8-2-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 6 |
0 | Subs | 0 |
114 | Vegas Odds | -135 |
Eduarda Moura | vs | Montserrat Conejo Ruiz |
$9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 9-0-0 | Record | Record: 10-3-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 3 |
5 | Subs | 2 |
-600 | Vegas Odds | +480 |
Kaue Fernandes | vs | Marc Diakiese |
$7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
| Record: 8-1-0 | Record | Record: 16-7-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 6 |
0 | Subs | 0 |
160 | Vegas Odds | -192 |
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