MMA DFS Playbook: UFC Fight Night Allen vs Craig Top DraftKings UFC DFS Picks
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Craig takes place this weekend live from The UFC Apex in Las Vegas with the Prelims at 2:00PM on ESPN+, followed by the Main Card at 5:00 on ESPN+ PPV. The Main Event features submission specialist Paul Craig entering the Middleweight division for the first time taking on up and coming prospect Brendan Allen as Allen looks to firmly plant himself in the top 10 of the division and reach title aspirations.
Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @consortiumDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC Fight Night: Allen vs Craig
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Brendan Allen vs Paul Craig | 9400/6800 | - | Stackability: Low | -425/ 365 | -280/425. |
| I don't think many people expected this fight to take place, but I think it makes a lot of sense. Allen is an up-and-coming prospect for the division, and Craig is the old vet who has faced and defeated former champions of the division. Allen is the better striker, wrestler, and all around the better mixed martial artist but if he isn't careful Craig will submit him. Craig is one of the best submission artists in the division and he's snatched up victories against more talented opponents than Allen so he is live to win this fight if he can find a way to get it to the ground. Allen has more paths to victory, but he may be scared to take this fight to the ground which makes me hesitate that he is going to score well unless he finds the finish. If Craig wins, it's going to be by submission and as one of the lowest priced fighters on the slate he probably makes the optimal lineup with that. I would not stack this fight in any games this week. My pick is Allen to win by KO. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Payton Talbott | 9500 | Nick Aguirre | Somewhat-Safe | -750 | -110 |
| These odds are absolutely out of control so don't look at this like you would most -750 fights, but I do like Talbott a lot here. Talbott throws a lot of volume and has finished all but one of his opponents so there is a lot to like about him and I think he is the much better striker. Talbott showed in his debut that he gets stronger the longer the fight lasts, he actually lost the first round on The Contender Series, but over the last two rounds he landed over 100 significant strikes while stopping 13 takedown attempts. This fight could start close early, but Talbott finds the finish late. | |||||
| Lucas Alexander | 9300 | Jeka Saragih | Somewhat-Safe | -535 | -135 |
| Alexander has a ton of power and should be the much better striker in this fight. Jeka is coming off of the road to the UFC tournament where the level of competition was pretty low so I don't think is striking is very good, and his wrestling is decent but I don't think it'll be useful here (for context, one of the fighters in that tournament had 5 fights against the same 2 fighters to inflate their record). Alexander by second round KO. | |||||
| Mick Parkin | 9200 | Caio Machado | Somewhat-Safe | -375 | 100. |
| This fight is -215 to end inside the distance, so it should be a popular target. Both of these guys have landed around 100 significant strikes in a fight before which is an accomplishment in the heavyweight division so we could be in for a fun fight. I think Mick is the better striker, but these are two young and untested heavyweights, so it is one of my less confident plays in this range. | |||||
| Michael Morales | 9100 | Jake Matthews | Moderate | -298 | 100. |
| I think Michael Morales is one of the better prospects in the division, but this is probably his toughest opponent yet. Morales has the tools to end this fight early, but I think he is more reliant on the finish for a high DK score compared to the others in this range. Morales keeps his undefeated record intact here, and finds the KO. | |||||
| Amanda Ribas | 9000 | Luana Pinheiro | Moderate | -245 | 275. |
| Ribas jumps back and forth between 115lbs and 125lbs and this one takes place at 115 where she is normally able to better work her wrestling. Michelle Waterson was able to stop all of Pinheiro's takedown attempts, so I think Ribas has a pretty sizable advantage in that area of this fight. My only concern is that at 115lbs Ribas sometimes looks depleted from the weight cut and can tire quicker, but I think she uses her wrestling to get the win here. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Christian Leroy Duncan | 8500 | Denis Tiuliulin | Moderate | -470 | #N/A |
| Duncan is only $8500 and is -470 in this matchup due to the late replacement so he's going to be the most popular play on the slate. Tiuliulin has never made it to Round 3 in any of his four UFC fights and I don't expect this one to take long either. I expect Tiuliulin to be pretty reckless in this spot, so maybe he comes out and lands a haymaker, but if Duncan can settle in, he probably puts an end to this fight before the third round. | |||||
| Chase Hooper | 8800 | Jordan Leavitt | Moderate | -205 | 180. |
| This is a great stylistic matchup for Hooper as it's one of the only fights at 155lbs where he probably isn't giving up much in the strength department. Hooper is a Jiu Jitsu wizard so if he can get it to the ground, he'll dominate the fight but even when it is standing we have seen that Hooper is willing to enter the pocket and trade with anyone, and Leavitt doesn't have much power to deter Hooper. Hooper has shown he can put up a good DraftKings score based solely on volume, so I think he is one of the safer plays in this range. | |||||
| Jose Johnson | 8700 | Chad Anheliger | Somewhat-Risky | -205 | 150. |
| Both of these guys have been liabilities in the wrestling department so I'm leaning towards Johnson. Johnson is huge for the division and will be 6 inches taller with a 7-inch reach advantage so I think it'll be hard for Anheliger to really get going. I don't think this fight ends in a KO, but I'm confident Johnson can win it. | |||||
| Ailin Perez | 8600 | Lucie Pudilova | Somewhat-Risky | -185 | 320. |
| Perez is going to look to wrestle, and I think she'll be able to here. She changed her nickname to "Nurmagomedov" and after scoring 10 takedowns in her last fight it's pretty fitting. Pudilova is lowkey a decent wrestler on her own, so I don't expect Perez to score 10 takedowns again, but in the small cage at the Apex I expect this fight to take place in close quarters which means a ton of DK scoring (although unlikely to get a KO). | |||||
| Joanderson Brito | 7800 | Jonathan Pearce | Somewhat-Risky | 110 | 165. |
| I think Brito has too much power for JSP to handle in this matchup. Pearce averages five takedowns per fight and Brito has yet to stop a takedown attempt against him in the UFC so we should find out quickly how this one is going. Brito has the KO power, and JSP has been hit plenty in his fights so I think he can get it done here. If the fight gets extended past 7-8 minutes JSP may take over this fight but hopefully Brito does enough early to win it. | |||||
| Rafael Estevam | 8200 | Charles Johnson | Somewhat-Risky | -155 | 350. |
| I think he'll be fairly popular at -155 and only $8200 against Charles Johnson. Johnson can't stop takedowns but gets up pretty quickly from them which is great because it normally leads to a ton of takedowns for his opponents. Estevam went 2/4 on takedowns in his last fight on route to a second-round finish and I expect him to rely on the wrestling again, although he probably won't get the finish as Johnson is durable. At $8200 even a score of 90-95 may be enough to win a tournament so I'll have plenty of Estevam lineups. | |||||
| Myktybek Orolbai | 8400 | Uros Medic | Risky | -148 | #N/A |
| This is a weird fight due to being a late replacement since we have Medic priced at $8900 and +125 against Orolbai. Orolbai is well rounded which having a bunch of wins by both KO and submission, and he'll need to use that since Medic is fairly one dimensional with his striking. Orolbai's striking is very much "one and done" where his combos don't look fluid so unless he wrestles a bunch here, I don't think he scores very well even in a win unless Medic really just pushes forward at him. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Lucie Pudilova | 7600 | Ailin Perez | Somewhat-Risky | 154 | 600. |
| Pudilova has her own wrestling ability so she could very well get some takedowns against Perez, I don't think she's the better wrestler but this is a 60/40 fight, so I won't be looking to fade Pudilova. | |||||
| Jordan Leavitt | 7400 | Chase Hooper | Somewhat-Risky | 170 | 400. |
| The good thing about Hooper is he always comes forward. In Hooper's losses his opponents have had to score at least 80+ (averaging 100+) to get the victory so if Leavitt doesn't get this to the ground, he probably needs to land 100+ strikes to win the fight. I'm looking to spread my ownership on underdogs pretty evenly so don't go nuts on Leavitt but make sure you have him in one of your lineups. | |||||
| Luana Pinheiro | 7200 | Amanda Ribas | Risky | 200 | 380. |
| Ribas has been chinny at times and Pinheiro can start fights really quickly sometimes (five takedowns in R1 against Randa Markos). While Ribas is technically the better fighter, if this becomes a greasy fight in close quarters, I could see Ribas getting caught with something. | |||||
| Caio Machado | 7000 | Mick Parkin | Risky | 295 | 650. |
| I don't think Machado is a great prospect, but these are the two lowest level fighters on the card so let's attack the uncertainty. Machado has a couple of armbar wins on his resume which is impressive at heavyweight, so maybe he can pull one of these fluke submissions out of his bag of tricks. | |||||
| Jake Matthews | 7100 | Michael Morales | Risky | 240 | 500. |
| Matthews was a pretty hyped-up prospect earlier in his career but he has never really put it all together. This is probably the toughest test Morales has faced in his career, and while I normally don't like Matthews on DraftKings due to his low volume, this week at only $7100 he just needs to get a win. He is probably the better wrestler but he really doesn't commit to it much here so he'll have to hope his experience can win him this fight in a closely contested striking affair. | |||||
| Trey Ogden | 7900 | Uros Medic | Risky | 114 | 300. |
| Both of these strikers are low volume, and neither really wrestle much so I expect it to be a tightly contested fight on the feet. I'm picking the dog here because Motta has shown suspect durability in a few fights, particularly getting KO'd by Jim Miller. I don't think Ogden has the power to KO him, but if I'm taking a shot in a 50/50 fight, I want to lean towards the guy who at least possess the ceiling needed to win a tournament. | |||||
| Denis Tiuliulin | 6800 | Christian Leroy Duncan | Risky | 360 | #N/A |
| Tiuliulin doesn't go deep into fights win or lose, and while I'm expecting him to get KO'd at least you know he's going to go in there and lay it all out for you. Duncan doesn't look like a future world champion so I won't be surprised if Tiuliulin can land a hail mary. | |||||
| Nick Aguirre | 6700 | Payton Talbott | Risky | 525 | 900. |
| This fight shouldn't have such huge odds as I think they should be closer to Tiuliulin's, but I still don't think Aguirre will win. Talbott looks hittable in R1 and if Aguirre can slow him down with his wrestling maybe there is a chance, he squeaks this fight out. I'll have Aguirre in a couple of my lineups, and I expect him to be the lowest owned fighter on the card. | |||||
Sample Lineup
Live Dogs
Craig, Brito, Pudilova, Pinheiro
Picks and Stats
Brendan Allen | vs | Paul Craig |
$9,400 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 22-5-0 | Record | Record: 17-6-1 |
5 | Knockouts | 4 |
13 | Subs | 13 |
-425 | Vegas Odds | +365 |
Michael Morales | vs | Jake Matthews |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 15-0-0 | Record | Record: 19-6-0 |
11 | Knockouts | 5 |
1 | Subs | 8 |
-298 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
Chase Hooper | vs | Jordan Leavitt |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 12-3-1 | Record | Record: 11-2-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 2 |
5 | Subs | 6 |
-205 | Vegas Odds | 170 |
Payton Talbott | vs | Nick Aguirre |
$9,500 | DFS Salary | $6,700 |
| Record: 6-0-0 | Record | Record: 7-1-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 3 |
0 | Subs | 4 |
-750 | Vegas Odds | 525 |
Luana Pinheiro | vs | Amanda Ribas |
$7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
| Record: 11-1-0 | Record | Record: 11-4-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 2 |
5 | Subs | 4 |
200 | Vegas Odds | -245 |
0 | ||
Uros Medic | vs | Myktybek Orolbai |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
| Record: 9-1-0 | Record | Record: 11-1-1 |
7 | Knockouts | 6 |
2 | Subs | 4 |
+124 | Vegas Odds | -148 |
Jonathan Pearce | vs | Joanderson Brito |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 14-4-0 | Record | Record: 15-3-1 |
9 | Knockouts | 5 |
2 | Subs | 8 |
-130 | Vegas Odds | 110 |
Chad Anheliger | vs | Jose Johnson |
$7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
| Record: 12-6-0 | Record | Record: 15-8-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 8 |
3 | Subs | 2 |
170 | Vegas Odds | -205 |
Christian Leroy Duncan | vs | Denis Tiuliulin |
$8,500 | DFS Salary | $6,800 |
| Record: 8-1-0 | Record | Record: 10-8-0 (1 NC) |
6 | Knockouts | 9 |
1 | Subs | 0 |
-470 | Vegas Odds | 360 |
Mick Parkin | vs | Caio Machado |
$9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 7-0-0 | Record | Record: 8-1-1 |
5 | Knockouts | 4 |
1 | Subs | 2 |
-375 | Vegas Odds | 295 |
Jeka Saragih | vs | Lucas Alexander |
$6,900 | DFS Salary | $9,300 |
| Record: 13-3-0 | Record | Record: 8-3-0 |
8 | Knockouts | 3 |
4 | Subs | 0 |
400 | Vegas Odds | -535 |
Lucie Pudilova | vs | Ailin Perez |
$7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
| Record: 14-8-0 | Record | Record: 8-2-0 |
3 | Knockouts | 4 |
2 | Subs | 1 |
154 | Vegas Odds | -185 |
Trey Ogden | vs | Nikolas Motta |
$7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
| Record: 16-6-0 | Record | Record: 13-5-0 |
0 | Knockouts | 9 |
11 | Subs | 0 |
114 | Vegas Odds | -135 |
Charles Johnson | vs | Rafael Estevam |
$8,000 | DFS Salary | $8,200 |
| Record: 13-5-0 | Record | Record: 11-0-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 4 |
3 | Subs | 3 |
130 | Vegas Odds | -155 |
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