MMA DFS Playbook: UFC 297 Strickland vs Du Plessis Top DraftKings UFC DFS Picks
UFC 297: Strickland vs Du Plessis takes place this weekend live from Toronto Canada. The card kicks off with the Early Prelims at 6:30 PM on ESPN+, followed by the Prelims at 8:00 PM on ESPN2/ESPN+, and finally at 10:00 PM the Main Card on ESPN+ PPV. The Main Event Sean Strickland making his first title defense against Driscus Du Plessis after defeating one of the greatest Middleweights of all time in Israel Adesanya.
The co-main event features a Woman’s title fight between Mayra Bueno Silva coming off a submission victory over Holly Holm against a staple in the division Raquel Pennington.
Check out all the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below, and as always feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on Twitter at @consortiumDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC 297: Strickland vs Du Plessis
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Sean Strickland vs Dricus Du Plessis | 8200/8000 | - | Stackability: Low | -115/ +105 | 175./140. |
What a matchup for the first PPV of the year. The polarizing Sean Strickland takes on up-and-coming Dricus Du Plessis in an action-packed main event. Strickland has solid boxing and should be the one landing more volume than DDP, but Driscus has better offensive wrestling and more power than Strickland. If the fight gets past the second round, I think Sean will be able to take over the fight as Driscus starts to fade, but I think that is a big if. I look at this as a 50/50 fight with Driscus winning the early exchanges and Strickland winning later. I'm officially picking Driscus to get the win here, but I won't be shocked either way this goes. I'll have this fight in almost all of my DraftKings lineups. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Mike Malott | 9300 | Neil Magny | Somewhat-Safe | -360 | -190 |
| Malott is the hometown favorite, literally staying in his childhood home while he prepares for the event so he's going to get a huge roar from the crowd. Malott is explosive and is going to look to finish this fight early and often. If this was prime Magny the line would be closer to even, but Magny has been on the decline for the last two years so this could be a setup fight for him to get finished. Malott hasn't had his cardio tested so if it gets past the second round it'll be interesting to see how he looks, but I think he gets it done before that. | |||||
| Jasmine Jasudavicius | 9500 | Priscila Cachoeira | Somewhat-Safe | -380 | 200. |
| Jasmine was originally going to be my top pick, but the fight was moved up to 135lbs at the last minute after Priscila's team said she wouldn't be able to make 125lbs, so it just throws in a little bit of a twist. She's the better wrestler by a mile, a more technical striker, and has better cardio so I expect her to dominate this fight. She isn't as likely to get the finish as Malott, so for DraftKings, I'm less confident in her, but I'm still confident that she can land 50+ strikes, 3-4 takedowns, and control the majority of the fight so she could score well if she times the finish. | |||||
| Charles Jourdain | 9000 | Sean Woodson | Somewhat-Safe | -218 | 165. |
| Jourdain has shown he can land a ton of volume, especially when given the chance against a non-wrestler and he gets that in his matchup against Woodson. He's giving up a ton of reach, but I'm confident he can figure this out and if this fight does hit the ground Jourdain still has the superior submission skills to Woodson. | |||||
| Serhiy Sidey | 8900 | Ramon Taveras | Moderate | -185 | 110. |
| This fight happened on the Contender Series and Sidey was able to KO him early so I'm expecting a repeat here. Neither of these guys is high level, and Taveras is reckless so either one can win this, but I think Sidey is the more well-rounded fighter so even if it gets extended, he should be able to win. The fight is about -350 to end inside the distance so it's likely someone in this fight scores well. | |||||
| Gillian Robertson | 9100 | Polyana Viana | Moderate | -305 | 100. |
| Robertson is submission or bust, which isn't something I like from a high-priced fighter, but she can get this done here. If the fight stays standing it should be about even, but it's likely that at some point Robertson is able to get the takedown and secure the submission. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Mayra Bueno Silva | 8600 | Raquel Pennington | Moderate | -166 | 130. |
| She has five rounds to work with, she pushes a pace and is an opportunistic submission artist. She doesn't do anything extremely well but against Pennington as long as she can stay off the fence, she should be able to win this fight. If she wins the fight, I see it hard for her to score less than 90 points, which with fighters around her might not be enough. I'll have her in about 40-50% of my lineups. | |||||
| Movsar Evloev | 8700 | Arnold Allen | Moderate | -192 | 650. |
| This is the toughest matchup Evloev has had to face but his ceiling every time he steps on the cage is through the roof. The only way he beats Allen is for him to get this fight to the ground, and Allen is good enough to get back up so if he does win, I think he needs at minimum 5 takedowns. He won't throw wild strikes on the ground, but he does land enough to give himself a 110-point ceiling. With that said if this fight stays standing Arnold Allen should butcher him up. I'll have Evloev in about 30% of my lineups. | |||||
| Malcolm Gordon | 8300 | Jimmy Flick | Somewhat-Risky | -205 | -135 |
| This is an odds-value play, and I don't think it is a particularly good one. Gordon is going to come in 40-50% owned because of his odds at $8300 and that is some risky chalk for a guy with a career 8% takedown defense and a weak chin. Flick doesn't offer much on the feet but if he can't keep Flick off of him, he could be in trouble. Flick has been KO'd a ton as well so Gordon does have the upside and if you are playing cash games he is almost a must-play at his odds and price, but for GPPs, if he is going to be 50% owned and Flick comes in at 8% owned, I'll just take about 25% of both of them. | |||||
| Yohan Lainesse | 8400 | Sam Patterson | Somewhat-Risky | -142 | -110 |
| O man, Lainesse is going to be the thorn in my side this week one way or the other. I cannot figure this guy out for the life of me. When he came into the UFC he had unrelenting aggression, pushed forward, and landed a ton of strikes and even some takedowns. His last two fights have been complete snoozefests, but I think this is a great opponent for him to turn it around. This fight is nearly -600 to end inside the distance so someone should score well, and I think Lainesse is able to do it as he welcomes Sam Patterson up to a new weight class. | |||||
| Brad Katona | 8800 | Garrett Armfield | Somewhat-Risky | #N/A | #N/A |
| I'm a Brad Katona fan, but he needs a specific outcome to hit the optimal lineup. He will wrestle, but he isn't like Evloev where he will shoot 10+ takedowns in a fight. Katona can push a pace and Armfield is known for fading as the fight goes on, so I think Katona gets a late finish but it's going to be tough for him to outscore Silva and Evloev. | |||||
| Jimmy Flick | 7900 | Malcolm Gordon | Somewhat-Risky | 170 | 275. |
| Flick is a submission artist, and with Gordon's lackluster takedown defense, he might be able to find some success. He looks to be the major contrarian play this week so if you play him in a lineup, you likely will be pretty unique. | |||||
| Marc-Andre Barriault | 7700 | Chris Curtis | Risky | 154 | 380. |
| Barriault pushes a pace, has more power, and should be able to dictate this fight. Curtis has nice counter-striking but unless Curtis can KO him in the first round, I don't want to have Curtis in my lineup. Barriault should be able to put up 100+ significant strikes if this hits the judge’s scorecard, and while that isn't a massive score, I'll take it from an underdog. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Raquel Pennington | 7600 | Mayra Bueno Silva | Somewhat-Risky | 140 | 650. |
| Pennington has 5 rounds to work with so even in a decision win I expect her to land 100+ strikes, have Silva against the cage for at least 5 minutes and maybe mix in a takedown. If this was a three-round fight, I would be fading her, but the extra two rounds are likely worth another 20 points for her if it gets there. | |||||
| Ramon Taveras | 7300 | Serhiy Sidey | Somewhat-Risky | 154 | 215. |
| Taveras is wild and if he lands early this fight could be over quickly. At his price and the highest ceiling of any underdog, he should be highly owned. He either scores 10 or 100. He didn't even get close in his weight cut, missing by nearly 5 lbs., so I'm not sure if he's hurt or something else went wrong. | |||||
| Arnold Allen | 7500 | Movsar Evloev | Risky | 160 | 450. |
| Allen is the best competition that Evloev has fought, but this is a tough stylistic matchup for him. He should be miles ahead on the feet, but if this hits the ground he is in trouble. Allen should be one of the lower-owned fighters on the card and it makes him a sneaky play if he can hurt Evloev early. | |||||
| Sean Woodson | 7200 | Charles Jourdain | Risky | 180 | 550. |
| Woodson is no stranger to landing 100+ significant strikes and Jourdain is going to give him a striking battle. I'm personally confident that Jourdain gets it done, but if Woodson wins it'll be because he weathered the storm and was able to land a ton of strikes. | |||||
| Garrett Armfield | 7400 | Brad Katona | Risky | 180 | 350. |
| Armfield is pretty much a first round or bust fighter, and with the pace that Katona pushes, he'll have to get it done early. I'm personally fading Armfield in my lineups, but he does have a decent inside-the-distance line so if he fits in your lineup as a last piece, he isn't the worst play. | |||||
| Polyana Viana | 7100 | Gillian Robertson | Risky | 245 | 400. |
| If these stay standing, I think it is pretty close, but if Viana gets taken down she would be in a world of trouble. In women's MMA the armbar from the bottom of the guard is always live and I could see that happening here. | |||||
| Priscila Cachoeira | 6700 | Jasmine Jasudavicius | Risky | 300 | 450. |
| She was about to miss weight, so she asked for the fight to move up a weight class, I'm not sure if that is a red flag or a bit of gamesmanship from someone who is going to need to defend takedowns. She doesn't offer much on the ground, but she has no problem cheating if she needs to. If she starts to get choked out, she is going to attempt to do anything possible (even poking eyes) to stop the choke. I think she gets submitted but if she does win, it's probably by KO. I won't have any of her, but in a win, she probably scores better than most of these underdogs. | |||||
| Neil Magny | 6900 | Mike Malott | Risky | 285 | 700. |
| Magny needs to wear on Malott, but I don't think he has that in him anymore. If he does win, it's probably a low-scoring fight and he'll need the other dogs around him to lose as well. A lot has to go right for this play to work, but at $6900 he does let you fit in a lot of high-end pieces. | |||||
Sample Lineup
Live Dogs
Du Plessis, Pennington, Flick, Taveras, Barriault
Picks and Stats
Sean Strickland | vs | Dricus Du Plessis |
$8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
| Record: 28-5-0 | Record | Record: 20-2-0 |
11 | Knockouts | 9 |
4 | Subs | 10 |
-115 | Vegas Odds | +105 |
Raquel Pennington | vs | Mayra Bueno Silva |
$7,600 | DFS Salary | $8,600 |
| Record: 15-9-0 | Record | Record: 10-2-1 (1 NC) |
1 | Knockouts | 1 |
4 | Subs | 7 |
140 | Vegas Odds | +145 |
Neil Magny | vs | Mike Malott |
$6,900 | DFS Salary | $9,300 |
| Record: 28-12-0 | Record | Record: 10-1-1 |
7 | Knockouts | 4 |
4 | Subs | 6 |
285 | Vegas Odds | -360 |
Chris Curtis | vs | Marc-Andre Barriault |
$8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 30-10-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 16-6-0 (1 NC) |
17 | Knockouts | 10 |
1 | Subs | 1 |
-185 | Vegas Odds | 154 |
Arnold Allen | vs | Movsar Evloev |
$7,500 | DFS Salary | $8,700 |
| Record: 19-2-0 | Record | Record: 17-0-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 3 |
4 | Subs | 4 |
160 | Vegas Odds | -192 |
0 | ||
Brad Katona | vs | Garrett Armfield |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 15-2-0 | Record | Record: 9-3-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 6 |
3 | Subs | 2 |
-218 | Vegas Odds | 180 |
Charles Jourdain | vs | Sean Woodson |
$9,000 | DFS Salary | $7,200 |
| Record: 15-6-1 | Record | Record: 10-1-1 |
8 | Knockouts | 1 |
5 | Subs | 7 |
-218 | Vegas Odds | 180 |
Serhiy Sidey | vs | Ramon Taveras |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 10-1-0 | Record | Record: 9-2-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 5 |
1 | Subs | 3 |
-185 | Vegas Odds | 154 |
Gillian Robertson | vs | Polyana Viana |
$9,100 | DFS Salary | $7,100 |
| Record: 12-8-0 | Record | Record: 13-6-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 5 |
9 | Subs | 8 |
-305 | Vegas Odds | 245 |
Yohan Lainesse | vs | Sam Patterson |
$8,400 | DFS Salary | $7,800 |
| Record: 9-2-0 | Record | Record: 10-2-1 |
6 | Knockouts | 4 |
0 | Subs | 5 |
-142 | Vegas Odds | 120 |
Jasmine Jasudavicius | vs | Priscila Cachoeira |
$9,500 | DFS Salary | $6,700 |
| Record: 9-3-0 | Record | Record: 12-5-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 7 |
1 | Subs | 0 |
-380 | Vegas Odds | 300 |
Malcolm Gordon | vs | Jimmy Flick |
$8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
| Record: 14-7-0 | Record | Record: 16-7-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 0 |
6 | Subs | 14 |
-205 | Vegas Odds | 170 |