MMA DFS Playbook: UFC 292 Sterling vs O'Malley Top DraftKings UFC DFS Picks
This weekend's UFC 292: Sterling vs O’Malley fight card headlines our MMA DFS picks and UFC daily fantasy lineups on DraftKings. Saturday night's fights go live from the TD Garden in Boston, Massachusetts with the Early Prelims kicking off at 6:30 PM ET on ESPN+, followed by the Prelims on ESPN/ESPN+ at 8:00 PM ET, followed by the Main Card at 10:00 PM ET on ESPN+ PPV. Before moving up to attempt to conquer the featherweight division, Aljamain Sterling makes his final walk at 135 lbs against fan favorite “Suga” Sean O’Malley in the main event on Saturday. Our Co-Main is for the belt in the woman’s 115 lb division and features Zhang Weili vs Amanda Lemos. These two fights are sure to be action-packed for as long as they last and could have plenty of value in UFC DFS lineups.
Check out all the latest UFC odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below. As always, feel free to reach out to me in Discord or on Twitter at @consortiumDFS. Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC 292: Sterling vs O’Malley
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Aljamain Sterling vs Sean O'Malley | 8900/7300 | - | Stackability: Low | -258/ +200 | +110/+300 |
| Sterling has the most wins in the Bantamweight division and is making the case that he is the GOAT of the division, but this is one of the toughest stylistic matchups for him as he faces a lengthy striker in O'Malley. O'Malley has great movement, crisp striking, and his length may be able to keep Sterling out of reach for the takedowns that he needs in this fight but similar to when Sterling fought Cory Sandhagen, if this fight gets to the mat even once it might be enough to end the fight. I'm leaning towards Sterling by Submission, but I'll have both of these fighters across my lineups as O'Malley has a clear path to a huge score if he can land a knee up the middle when Sterling shoots in for a takedown. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Gregory Rodrigues | 9500 | Denis Tiuliulin | Somewhat-Safe | -355 | -225 |
| Rodrigues has a massive -225 inside the distance, and with the way Tiuliulin fights it should probably be higher. Rodrigues has a massive advantage on the mat in this fight so I think he will win this by first-round submission. Tiuliulin fights a "kill or be killed" style so expect him to come out wild-looking to make this a greasy stand-up affair, which should lead to Rodrigues having to push a higher pace and lead to a great score. | |||||
| Zhang Weili | 9200 | Amanda Lemos | Somewhat-Safe | -310 | -150 |
| Weili is in a five-round fight for the 115lb championship, so she has a ton of time to rack up fantasy points. She is the better wrestler of the two and is a little sharper in the feet so she should be able to hold her own wherever the fight takes place. Lemos has the power so she'll need to be careful not to get caught, but outside a high kick she never saw coming against Thug Rose, Weili has shown great durability. I'm betting Weili gets it done in the last second round by KO. | |||||
| Ian Garry | #N/A | Neil Magny | Somewhat-Safe | -520 | -135 |
| Garry faces a short-notice replacement in Neil Magny, and this is a great matchup for him as he gets to fight a perennial top-15 gatekeeper to add a known name to his resume. Magny is pretty durable and likes to slow the fight down by holding opponents against the cage so Garry's fantasy points in a decision may not be as high as some of the other high-priced fighters. He's one of my most confident picks to get a win on this card, but in terms of DK scoring I'm projecting him behind a few others in the high-priced range. | |||||
| Mario Bautista | 9100 | Da'Mon Blackshear | Moderate | -218 | +165 |
| Bautista faces Blackshear on short notice after Blackshear just fought last week so it's a pretty big red flag when you fight that close together. Bautista should have the advantage standing, and if it hits the ground and he winds up on top he should be fine. Blackshear has great submission skills but if he gets stuck on the bottom in a scramble, I don't think his skills are that good where Bautista should have to be scared to get on the ground. I'm picking Bautista to win a decision this week. | |||||
| Andre Petroski | 8800 | Gerald Meerschaert | Moderate | -238 | -110 |
| Petroski should be one of the highest-owned fighters this week and his wrestling-heavy approach is great for scoring. Meerschaert has terrible takedown defense in his career, but many times he's comfortable fighting off of his back while hunting submissions. Unless GM3 can find a hail mary submission, Petroski likely wins this fight and scores 100+ even in a decision win. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Marlon Vera | 8600 | Pedro Munhoz | Moderate | -205 | +350 |
| It's a tough mid-range this week especially without fighters priced at $8000-$8200 or $8700 so we will start off with a fighter who I'm most confident to get a win. Vera normally starts slowing which is a major concern for a three-round fight, but I think in terms of skills he has the advantage everywhere against Munhoz. I think Vera gets a decision win, but if he could land a third-round finish it could be enough to get on the optimal lineup. | |||||
| Karine Silva | 8300 | Maryna Moroz | Moderate | -155 | +175 |
| Silva has the submission skills to be the highest-scoring fighter in the mid-range, for that reason, she'll be one of my highest-owned fighters in this range. Moroz is a tough opponent to get a hold of, but hopefully, she can land a takedown early and eventually find the finish. | |||||
| Austin Hubbard | 8400 | Kurt Holobaugh | Somewhat-Risky | -180 | +275 |
| Hubbard has the better wrestling in this matchup and he's going to learn quickly that he needs to use it as Holobaugh has some clean striking. In Hubbard's first run in the UFC, he scored well in his wins, reaching at least 90 pts each time and I expect him to land in that range if he ends up winning this fight. | |||||
| Kurt Holobaugh | 7800 | Austin Hubbard | Somewhat-Risky | +150 | +275 |
| On the other side of this fight, I'm going to be the better striker in the match-up. Holobaugh has some pop on his strikes, can mix in some wrestling if needed, and he throws out enough volume. In his prior runs in the UFC, he had losses where he scored 50+ fantasy points so if he can find the win on Saturday he should do enough to score well as an underdog. | |||||
| Brad Katona | 8500 | Cody Gibson | Somewhat-Risky | -166 | +450 |
| Katona normally pushes a solid pace, and he should be able to control Gibson along the fence with his wrestling, but his fighting style doesn't translate well to DraftKings scoring. He should score decent in a win, but I don't see him finishing Gibson so unless he can find the finish, he really has a capped ceiling. | |||||
| Maryna Moroz | 7900 | Karine Silva | Somewhat-Risky | +130 | +400 |
| Moroz throws a lot of volume, but she doesn't land much. Silva isn't a natural striker so if these stays standing Moroz should make this into a close fight. I'll be looking at other underdogs who have a higher ceiling, but she does have the best odds of any of the underdogs on this week's slate. | |||||
| Cody Gibson | 7700 | Brad Katona | Risky | +140 | +300 |
| It's been almost ten years since Gibson last fought in the UFC, so this has been a long road back for him. Katona fights a style that normally doesn't lead to much damage so one or two big shots from Gibson may be enough to sway the judges in a round. I don't love this fight in general, so I'll probably look elsewhere, but there is a chance that Gibson just comes out red hot looking to make a statement in his long awaited return to the UFC. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Chris Weidman | 7200 | Brad Tavares | Somewhat-Risky | +210 | +475 |
| I'm rolling back the clock with this pick. Weidman is coming off an injury that I thought ended his career, but he's been working his way back for two years so it's a huge question mark how he looks in this fight. Tavares is only a few months off of a brutal KO loss and Weidman has a clear wrestling advantage in this matchup. I'll be playing a bunch of Weidman in my lineups and fading Tavares hoping he can wrestle and get the decision win. | |||||
| Amanda Lemos | 7000 | Zhang Weili | Somewhat-Risky | +250 | +330 |
| Lemos has power, but she'll need to keep this fight standing to use it. I don't think she'll have the success needed to win this fight, but if it goes five rounds there is a chance that she could do enough to score 65pts which may be enough at her price range if no other dogs win their matchups. | |||||
| Gerald Meerschaert | 7400 | Andre Petroski | Risky | +195 | +300 |
| GM3 is always live for a submission, but it's a tough task this week. He has some of the best inside the distance for all of the dogs in this range, but if he can't find the submission, he won't be able to keep this fight competitive. | |||||
| Denis Tiuliulin | 6700 | Gregory Rodrigues | Risky | +280 | +350 |
| Tiuliulin is either going to win by KO in round 1 or he is going to get destroyed. He has the biggest ceiling of any fighter in this range, but in a loss, he probably scores under 10pts and sinks your lineup completely. | |||||
| Da'Mon Blackshear | 7100 | Mario Bautista | Risky | +180 | +300 |
| Blackshear has some good submission skills, but fighting back-to-back weeks is tough. If Blackshear can extend this fight, Bautista doesn't have much experience in the later rounds so he could find success there if the fight gets that deep. Blackshear may end up being the chalk this week at +180 and only $7100 but he has the upside that's needed to break the slate, so you'll need some in your lineups. | |||||
| Neil Magny | 6600 | Ian Garry | Risky | +390 | +1,200 |
| Magny may be the toughest test for Garry, but he is way past his prime, so it'll be tough for him to have success here. Magny will need to get this fight to the ground or at least keep it against the cage, but I doubt he'll be able to do it long enough to win the fight. I'll be fading Magny. | |||||
| Andrea Lee | 6800 | Natalia Silva | Risky | +275 | +1,100 |
| Lee faces a tough task in Natalia Silva, but this is the toughest opponent Silva has had so far. Lee scored five takedowns against Maycee Barber less than six months ago, so she has the strength needed to control Silva in this matchup and she has shown she is really durable as well. I lean playing Lee over Silva here, and although she is priced as $6800 this isn't a normal $6800 where we see fighters like Jaime Pickett vs Bo Nickal at +1250 in this range, she can win this fight and I expect her to at least make it a close decision. | |||||
| Pedro Munhoz | 7600 | Marlon Vera | Risky | +170 | +800 |
| Vera starts slow so maybe Munhoz can catch him early or at least compromise Vera with his leg kicks. I don't think Munhoz KO's or subs Vera so he'll have to win a decision which would limit his upside. Munhoz should come in low owned, so you won't need much to match the field. | |||||
UFC 292: Sterling vs O'Malley DFS Example Lineup
UFC 292: Sterling vs O'Malley Live Underdog Predictions
- Sean O’Malley +200
- Chris Weidman +210
- Da'Mon Blackshear +180
- Kurt Holobaugh +150
- Andrea Lee +275
UFC 292: Sterling vs O'Malley Picks and Stats
Aljamain Sterling | vs | Sean O'Malley |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
| Record: 23-3-0 | Record | Record: 16-1-0 (1 NC) |
3 | Knockouts | 11 |
8 | Subs | 1 |
-258 | Vegas Odds | +200 |
Zhang Weili | vs | Amanda Lemos |
$9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
| Record: 23-3-0 | Record | Record: 13-2-1 |
11 | Knockouts | 8 |
8 | Subs | 3 |
-310 | Vegas Odds | +250 |
Neil Magny | vs | Ian Garry |
$6,600 | DFS Salary | $9,600 |
| Record: 28-11-0 | Record | Record: 12-0-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 7 |
4 | Subs | 1 |
+390 | Vegas Odds | -520 |
Da'Mon Blackshear | vs | Mario Bautista |
$7,100 | DFS Salary | $9,100 |
| Record: 14-5-1 | Record | Record: 12-2-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 3 |
9 | Subs | 6 |
+180 | Vegas Odds | -218 |
Marlon Vera | vs | Pedro Munhoz |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
| Record: 20-8-1 | Record | Record: 20-7-0 (2 NC) |
8 | Knockouts | 5 |
8 | Subs | 8 |
-205 | Vegas Odds | +170 |
0 | ||
Chris Weidman | vs | Brad Tavares |
$7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
| Record: 15-6-0 | Record | Record: 19-9-0 |
6 | Knockouts | 5 |
4 | Subs | 2 |
+210 | Vegas Odds | -258 |
Gregory Rodrigues | vs | Denis Tiuliulin |
$9,500 | DFS Salary | $6,700 |
| Record: 13-5-0 | Record | Record: 10-7-0 (1 NC) |
8 | Knockouts | 8 |
3 | Subs | 3 |
-355 | Vegas Odds | +280 |
Kurt Holobaugh | vs | Austin Hubbard |
$7,800 | DFS Salary | $8,400 |
| Record: 20-7-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 16-6-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 7 |
2 | Subs | 9 |
+150 | Vegas Odds | -180 |
Brad Katona | vs | Cody Gibson |
$8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
| Record: 14-2-0 | Record | Record: 20-8-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 7 |
3 | Subs | 4 |
-166 | Vegas Odds | +140 |
Andre Petroski | vs | Gerald Meerschaert |
$8,800 | DFS Salary | $7,400 |
| Record: 9-2-0 | Record | Record: 35-16-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 6 |
4 | Subs | 27 |
-238 | Vegas Odds | +195 |
Andrea Lee | vs | Natalia Silva |
$6,800 | DFS Salary | $9,400 |
| Record: 13-7-0 | Record | Record: 15-5-1 |
3 | Knockouts | 5 |
5 | Subs | 7 |
+275 | Vegas Odds | -345 |
Karine Silva | vs | Maryna Moroz |
$8,300 | DFS Salary | $7,900 |
| Record: 16-4-0 | Record | Record: 11-4-0 |
9 | Knockouts | 1 |
7 | Subs | 6 |
-155 | Vegas Odds | +130 |
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