MMA DFS Playbook UFC 281: Israel Adesanya vs. Alex Pereira
UFC 281 Adesanya vs. Pereira kicks off with the Early Prelims at 6:00 PM EST on ESPN+, followed by the Prelims at 8:00 PM on ESPN News and ESPN+ and finally the Main Card on ESPN+ PPV at 10:00PM.
Check out all of the latest UFC on ESPN odds, stats, predictions, and matchup breakdowns for the entire fight card below and as always feel free to reach out to me in discord or on twitter at @consortiumDFS.
Now let's look at some UFC DFS top picks and plays for Saturday's event. Good luck with your MMA daily fantasy lineups!
MMA DFS Playbook: UFC 281
MMA DFS Playbook for UFC 281: Israel Adesanya vs. Alex Pereira
Main Event | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
Israel Adesanya vs Alex Pereira | 8600/7600 | - | Stackability: Low | -205/ +175 | +275/+250 |
| The trilogy fight in this matchup if we are counting their kickboxing days, this main event is going to showcase the highest level of striking in the UFC. Pereira won both of their matchups in kickboxing, but Izzy arguably should have won the decision in the first fight, and he rocked Pereira in the second where Alex was saved by the refs standing 8 count before, he ultimately knocked out Izzy so it wasn't like either of those fights were domination by one party. I expect Pereira to be the aggressor to start the fight so expect Izzy to be backpedaling early and often, but as the fight goes later Izzy is going to get more offensive. I think Izzy eventually gets the job done here but it should be highly competitive, so both are playable in this matchup. I don't think this fight should be stacked since it's going to be mainly striking and either of them winning by KO early is possible. | |||||
Expensive | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Zhang Weili | 9400 | Carla Esparza | Somewhat-Safe | -330 | +100 |
| The favorite in the five round co-main event I think Weili is one of the highest owned fighters on the slate. Weili throws a ton of volume, and her striking is going to be lightyears ahead of what Esparza has to offer her on the feet. As long as she keeps the fight standing, she is going to find the finish, or land a ton of volume in a high scoring decision. | |||||
| Erin Blanchfield | 9500 | Molly McCann | Somewhat-Safe | -410 | +200 |
| Blanchfield is one of the youngest fighters on the card at only 23 years old, but she is also one of the most talented. She likes to rely on her wrestling early and often, but showed in her last fight that even if she can't get that going, she is still able to win a fight on her feet. Molly Meatball is the best striker she has faced in the UFC so she is going to want to get this fight to the ground, and she should be able to. Even in a decision win she should land enough volume and a bunch of takedowns to score well. She should be locked in your cash game lineups, but in a decision win as the highest priced fighter I'm not sure if she will make the optimal lineup. | |||||
| Dominick Reyes | 9300 | Ryan Spann | Somewhat-Safe | -215 | -110 |
| The former title challenger faces a stepdown in competition in his return to the octagon in Ryan Spann. Reyes has lost three straight fights, but they were all against either former or current champs of the 205 division so you can't take much away from him for that. If Reyes can avoid Spann's early power, he should get the finish here and reestablish as part of the top 5 of the 205 lb division. Prediction - Reyes by second round KO | |||||
| Andre Petroski | 9200 | Wellington Turman | Moderate | -195 | +110 |
| Petroski likes to utilize his wrestling and physicality early in fights but if he goes past the first five minutes his cardio falls off of a cliff. He should dominate in round 1 and even possibly find a submission, but I don't like spending $9200 on a fighter who will struggle the longer the fight goes. I'll be underweight to the field on Petroski, but his ceiling for multiple takedowns and a Round 1 finish is there so don't throw him out of all of your lineups. | |||||
| Montel Jackson | 9000 | Julio Arce | Moderate | -200 | +200 |
| Jackson doesn't throw much volume on the feet, but he makes up for it with takedowns and knockout power. Arce is a talented boxer but doesn't have much of a ground game so Jackson's path to victory is to utilize his wrestling here. Jackson has a monstrous 75-inch reach for the 135 lbs. division so Arce is going to have to close the distance in order to land his strikes which could lead to more takedowns for Jackson. The fight should be competitive on the feet, but Jackson's durability and power wrestling should shine here. | |||||
Mid-Range | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Dan Hooker | 8700 | Claudio Puelles | Moderate | -145 | +180 |
| Hooker's stock is way down after his last few fights but he takes on a specialist in Puelles here, so I expect him to get back in the win column. Hooker should shine on the feet in his return to the 155 lb division and he has the defensive wrestling to keep it there. At -145 and $8700 he is a tough pill to swallow for lineups, but I think the line should be closer to -200. Puelle's is a submission or bust fighter and this is a major step up in competition for him so I'm not expecting much from him. | |||||
| Carlos Ulberg | 8400 | Nicolae Negumereanu | Moderate | -130 | +150 |
| The least known of the City Kickboxing fighters on this card, and while he isn't on the same level as Izzy in terms of flash his kickboxing skills are good enough to win this fight. Ulberg's only loss in the UFC so far was due to him tiring and getting finished in a fight that he landed 150 significant strikes through the first two rounds but couldn't find the finish. Negumereanu is an in-your-face style fighter who has had 95 and 100+ ss landed on him in two of his WINS so if he loses Ulberg should be able to land in that range. I think Ulberg eventually finds the KO here, but even if he doesn't his volume shouldn't kill your lineup at only $8400. | |||||
| Ottman Azaitar | 7700 | Matt Frevola | Somewhat-Risky | -145 | +110 |
| Money keeps coming in on Azaitar after a two-year layoff so at -145 and $7700 he is going to be one of the highest owned fighters on the slate. Azaitar has the KO power to end this fight early, but he has only five minutes of fight time in the past five years so if this fight gets extended Frevola may be able to utilize his wrestling and drain the gas tank. For cash games he is pretty much a must play with the odds value, but in GPP's if you fade him and he ends up failing you should pass 40-50% of the field. | |||||
| Renato Moicano | 8300 | Brad Riddell | Somewhat-Risky | -125 | +180 |
| This is a matchup between two well rounded fighters, but I'm expecting this to mainly take place on the feet. Riddell has not looked great as of late, having been stunned and finished by submission by Turner in the first round of his last matchup. | |||||
| Silvana Gomez Juarez | 8000 | Karolina Kowalkiewicz | Somewhat-Risky | -110 | +225 |
| Silvana Gomez Juarez has a ton of power for the weight class and has 7 wins by KO in her career so her path to hitting the optimal is there. Juarez ground game doesn't look to be at the UFC level as she was finished in her first two UFC outings rather quickly once the fight got to the ground. Kowalkiewicz was briefly retired before looking great in her last fight, but Felice Herrig was way past her prime in that fight and on the verge of retiring so we can't take too much from it. I think either lady could end up on the optimal lineup since they both have paths to early finishes, but I'm going to be leaning Juarez. | |||||
| Matt Frevola | 8500 | Ottman Azaitar | Somewhat-Risky | +125 | +225 |
| If you want a low owned play Frevola is the way to go. Frevola has the wrestling advantage in this matchup and if he utilizes it early, he could drain the tank on Azaitar. If you are playing ten lineups, I'd be playing Frevola in two. | |||||
| Brad Riddell | 7900 | Renato Moicano | Risky | +105 | +250 |
| The striking coach for City Kickboxing returns to the ring vs Moicano. He may catch some ownership at only +105 for $7900 and if he shows up at his best, he could easily win this fight, but that version hasn't been showing lately. Riddell mixes in takedowns with his striking and has been to wars before so a victory here likely scores him well. | |||||
Pay-Downs | |||||
Fighter(s) | Price | Opponent | Risk | Odds | ITD |
| Michael Chandler | 7300 | Dustin Poirier | Somewhat-Risky | +185 | +275 |
| Chandler is super explosive and has a wrestling advantage if he wants to use it, but he may just look to keep it standing and trade with Poirier. Chandler has the power to knockout anyone and he should be able to land some shots here, but Poirier does have a solid chin. He puts up a pace that means in a win he almost is guaranteed to make the optimal lineup. | |||||
| Frankie Edgar | 7100 | Chris Gutierrez | Somewhat-Risky | +195 | +550 |
| I think the “Frankie Edgar is washed” narrative has been greatly exaggerated. Edgar showed in his last fight against possible title contender Chito Vera that he could still effectively wrestle and throw a ton of volume. Gutierrez isn't anywhere close to the level of competition Edgar is used to facing but he does have some dangerous leg kicks. At the end of the day Edgar is 41 years old and has already announced that this is his retirement fight so we don't know how he is going to look when he shows up on Saturday, but if the same guy who showed up at MSG last year enters the octagon on Saturday he should be able to get the win. | |||||
| Claudio Puelles | 7500 | Dan Hooker | Risky | +125 | +180 |
| Puelles is submission or bust, but he has one of the higher ceilings out of the underdogs since his main path to victory is by finish. He should be pretty chalky with the line being at +125 for $7500. | |||||
| Wellington Turman | 7000 | Andre Petroski | Risky | +165 | +300 |
| Turman has been dropped early in a few of his UFC fights, but it isn't as big of a concern when Petroski is going to look to wrestle. If he survives the first five minutes of the fight, he should be able to start taking over the fight. | |||||
| Ryan Spann | 6900 | Dominick Reyes | Risky | +185 | +250 |
| Spann comes out fast. has a ton of power to go along with an underrated ground game but his durability and gas tank are suspect. Another dog that is likely to lose, but in a win is going to score huge on DraftKings. | |||||
| Michael Trizano | 7400 | SeungWoo Choi | Risky | +145 | +600 |
| Trizano doesn't have a finish in any of his UFC wins but he did drop Almeida last time out before losing a decision and Choi is coming off a tough knockout loss, so it'll be interesting to see how these two bounce back from rough outings. Trizano is giving up four inches of reach, and neither relies heavily on their wrestling so it’s going to be hard for him to score well even if he does win a decision. | |||||
| Molly McCann | 6700 | Erin Blanchfield | Risky | +330 | +800 |
| The hardest task Meatball Molly has had to face so far in her UFC career is ahead of her this weekend in the 23-year-old Blanchfield. If Molly can keep it on the feet the fight is going to be a tossup, but she hasn't shown she can when she faced willing wrestlers. | |||||
| Carla Esparza | 6800 | Zhang Weili | Risky | +275 | +900 |
| If Esparza wants to retain her belt, she is going to need to land multiple takedowns and control the fight on the ground for long stretches of time. The implied odds say Esparza wins this fight close to 25% of the time and every time she wins the fight, she is going to hit the optimal lineup at her salary. Even though she is in a five round fight she isn't a must for cash games because if she can't get her wrestling going, she is probably scoring under 20 pts. | |||||
Sample DFS Lineup
Live Dogs
Pereira, Chandler, Edgar, Turman, Spann
Stats and Picks
Israel Adesanya | vs | Alex Pereira |
$8,600 | DFS Salary | $7,600 |
Record: 23-1-0 | Record | Record: 6-1-0 |
15 | Knockouts | 5 |
0 | Subs | 0 |
-205 | Vegas Odds | +175 |
Carla Esparza | vs | Zhang Weili |
$6,700 | DFS Salary | $9,400 |
Record: 20-6-0 | Record | Record: 22-3-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 11 |
4 | Subs | 7 |
+275 | Vegas Odds | -330 |
Dustin Poirier | vs | Michael Chandler |
$8,900 | DFS Salary | $7,300 |
Record: 28-7-0 (1 NC) | Record | Record: 23-7-0 |
14 | Knockouts | 11 |
7 | Subs | 7 |
-215 | Vegas Odds | +185 |
Frankie Edgar | vs | Chris Gutierrez |
$7,100 | DFS Salary | $9,100 |
Record: 23-10-1 | Record | Record: 18-3-2 |
7 | Knockouts | 8 |
4 | Subs | 1 |
+195 | Vegas Odds | -230 |
Dan Hooker | vs | Claudio Puelles |
$8,700 | DFS Salary | $7,500 |
Record: 21-12-0 | Record | Record: 13-2-0 |
10 | Knockouts | 2 |
7 | Subs | 7 |
-145 | Vegas Odds | +125 |
0 | ||
Brad Riddell | vs | Renato Moicano |
$7,900 | DFS Salary | $8,300 |
Record: 10-3-0 | Record | Record: 16-5-1 |
5 | Knockouts | 0 |
0 | Subs | 9 |
+105 | Vegas Odds | -125 |
Dominick Reyes | vs | Ryan Spann |
$9,300 | DFS Salary | $6,900 |
Record: 12-3-0 | Record | Record: 20-7-0 |
7 | Knockouts | 5 |
2 | Subs | 12 |
-215 | Vegas Odds | +185 |
Erin Blanchfield | vs | Molly McCann |
$9,500 | DFS Salary | $6,700 |
Record: 9-1-0 | Record | Record: 13-4-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 6 |
2 | Subs | 0 |
-410 | Vegas Odds | +330 |
Andre Petroski | vs | Wellington Turman |
$9,200 | DFS Salary | $7,000 |
Record: 8-2-0 | Record | Record: 18-5-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 4 |
4 | Subs | 8 |
-195 | Vegas Odds | +165 |
Matt Frevola | vs | Ottman Azaitar |
$8,500 | DFS Salary | $7,700 |
Record: 9-3-1 | Record | Record: 13-0-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 10 |
3 | Subs | 2 |
+125 | Vegas Odds | -145 |
Karolina Kowalkiewicz | vs | Silvana Gomez Juarez |
$8,200 | DFS Salary | $8,000 |
Record: 13-7-0 | Record | Record: 11-4-0 |
1 | Knockouts | 7 |
3 | Subs | 2 |
-110 | Vegas Odds | -110 |
Michael Trizano | vs | SeungWoo Choi |
$7,400 | DFS Salary | $8,800 |
Record: 10-3-0 | Record | Record: 10-5-0 |
2 | Knockouts | 6 |
2 | Subs | 0 |
+145 | Vegas Odds | -170 |
Julio Arce | vs | Montel Jackson |
$7,200 | DFS Salary | $9,000 |
Record: 18-5-0 | Record | Record: 11-2-0 |
5 | Knockouts | 6 |
5 | Subs | 1 |
+170 | Vegas Odds | -200 |
Carlos Ulberg | Vs | Nicolae Negumereanu |
$8400 | DFS Salary | $7800 |
Record: 6-1-0 | Record | Record: 13-1-0 |
4 | Knockouts | 8 |
0 | Subs | 3 |
-130 | Vegas Odds | +110 |
PrizePicks Props
- Ulberg OVER 46.5 Sig Strikes
- Esparza UNDER 2 Takedowns
- Blanchfield OVER 89.5 Fantasy Points
- Weili OVER 105.5 Fantasy Points
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