World Cup 2022 DFS Playbook December 1: Germany, Costa Rica, Japan and Spain Top the Slate
Even more so than Thursday, Friday’s World Cup DFS slate could swing based on the scenarios each team faces for getting into the round of 16. The most important for our purposes is probably Germany, who needs to defeat Costa Rica to have any hope of advancing beyond the group stage. If Spain and Japan draw, Germany would need to beat Costa Rica by at least two goals to advance on goal differential. Costa Rica would advance with a win and if they draw, then they would need Spain to defeat Japan. Spain qualifies with a win or a draw, while Japan qualifies with a win. A draw only gets them in if Germany doesn’t win by 2+ goals.
Group F is more clear-cut. Canada has been eliminated, and they could elect to get some of their younger players World Cup experience with an eye to returning in 3.5 years. Croatia and Morocco are tied with four points each, and Croatia leads in goal differential by one. Both advance with a win or a draw, and if Croatia beats Belgium, Morocco would advance even if they lose to Canada. Belgium advances with a win. If they draw, they need Canada to beat Morocco by four goals.
Most of these teams tend to be solid defensively anyway, so I think we could see a low-scoring slate as the teams at the top of their groups play for draws. If that is the case, it would make stats like crosses, clearances, and chances created even more valuable.
World Cup Goalkeepers
| Goalkeepers | ||||||
| Player | Team | Opp. | DK $ | DK FPPG | FD $ | FD FPPG |
| Bono | MOR | CAN | 5100 | 7.3 | 11 | 13.00 |
| I really thought he would be more expensive. Morocco still hasn't conceded in this tournament, while Canada has scored just once. This is the best bet if you want to chase a win and a clean sheet. | ||||||
| Dominik Livakovic | CRO | BEL | 4800 | 7.35 | 10 | 11.75 |
| Belgium has gotten outplayed in both of its matches, and even if they got a little unlucky against Morocco, I think Croatia is pretty clearly the better side. I don't expect very many saves but I love his chances for a win and/or a clean sheet. | ||||||
| Shuichi Gonda | JPN | ESP | 3800 | 8.63 | 7 | 13.00 |
| I don't know that this is the slate to be playing cheap keepers, but Gonda is the best of the lot. Spain underperformed its xG by 4.6 at the Euros and Japan has allowed one goal in each game so far. He had eight saves against Germany and if he gets even half that many, he will be a very nice fantasy play. | ||||||
World Cup Forwards
| Forwards | ||||||
| Player | Team | Opp. | DK $ | DK FPPG | FD $ | FD FPPG |
| Junior Hoilett | CAN | MOR | 6700 | 6.79 | 11 | 4.95 |
| Cyle Larin did very little in his start against Croatia and Hiolett is underpriced if he rejoins the starting lineup. He has six crosses, four shots and two chances created in 86 minutes. | ||||||
| Alphonso Davies | CAN | MOR | 6500 | 13.37 | 16 | 23.25 |
| Alphonso Davies has six crosses, five chances created, and one goal so far. I think I actually prefer him on FanDuel but he is playable on DraftKings as well despite being listed as a defender. | ||||||
| Romelu Lukaku | BEL | CRO | 7500 | 0.02 | 17 | 0.00 |
| Much like Leroy Sane, Lukaku is simply too cheap if he is healthy enough to start. Sane is probably safer considering the matchup, but Lukaku is cheaper. | ||||||
| Ferran Torres | ESP | JPN | 8500 | 15.23 | 20 | 20.00 |
| Dani Olmo is safer but he is much more expensive on DraftKings, and I don't want to hold it against Torres that he struggled against Germany. That happens to a lot of good players. Torres is one of my favorite top-tier targets on both sites. | ||||||
| Junya Ito | JPN | ESP | 7600 | 6.31 | 13 | 9.40 |
| Forward is pretty ugly on DraftKings, but Ito has been solid in this tournament and he had the most assists, chances created, and expected assists in Asian qualifying. the only thing keeping him from being a must-play is the matchup. | ||||||
| Player | Team | Opp. | DK $ | DK FPPG | FD $ | FD FPPG |
| Yuki Soma | JPN | ESP | 3700 | 9.36 | 7 | 2.60 |
| Soma had six crosses and three shots against Costa Rica and even though this matchup is much tougher, he is a must-play on DraftKings if he starts. | ||||||
World Cup Midfielders
| Midfielders | ||||||
| Player | Team | Opp. | DK $ | DK FPPG | FD $ | FD FPPG |
| Jewison Bennette | CRC | GER | 4200 | 1.74 | 9 | 0.00 |
| Bennette has been quiet through two games but he only played 86 minutes total, and his replacements did very little when he was on the bench. He scored twice in September friendlies for Costa Rica and Germany has conceded 15 goals in 17 games under manager Hansi Flick. Bennette is a nice punt play on both sites. | ||||||
| Leroy Sane | GER | CRC | 8400 | 1.1 | 18 | 3.00 |
| It looks like he will be the cheapest German attacker, especially on FanDuel. He missed the Japan game with a knee injury and was quiet in 20 minutes off the bench against Spain but considering the situation and the matchup, I don't know how you fade him if he starts. | ||||||
| Jamal Musiala | GER | CRC | 7300 | 12.64 | 22 | 15.45 |
| On the one hand, this is a lot to pay on DraftKings for someone who doesn't hit crosses. On the other hand, he leads Germany in DK scoring and he is much, much more expensive on FanDuel. | ||||||
| Hakim Ziyech | MOR | CAN | 7900 | 12.98 | 16 | 17.20 |
| Canada has been one of the worst defensive teams in this tournament, and Ziyech has three crosses, two chances created, and two shots in both games. The only thing holding him back from being a must-play on DK is he is only eligible at midfield. | ||||||
| Luka Modric | CRO | BEL | 7600 | 9.33 | 11 | 8.20 |
| Modric's 14 crosses and two chances created haven't translated to attacking returns yet, but they certainly could against a vulnerable Belgium side. | ||||||
World Cup Defenders
| Defenders | ||||||
| Player | Team | Opp. | DK $ | DK FPPG | FD $ | FD FPPG |
| Juan Pablo Vargas | CRC | GER | 2500 | 0 | 8 | |
| Francisco Calvo will miss this game after a second yellow card, and Vargas is his most likely replacement at center back. He could rack up defensive stats, especially if Germany pushes to pad its goal differential. Daniel Cahco would be an even better fantasy play if he starts, since he is listed as a midfielder. | ||||||
| Lukas Klostermann | GER | CRC | 4200 | 0.1 | 8 | 1.30 |
| Thilo Kehrer has done next to nothing for fantasy, so I am not expecting a ton from his possible replacements. That being said, Germany needs to score in this game and this is a great matchup. Klostermann or Nico Schlotterbeck would both be worth a shot in tournaments if they start at right back. | ||||||
| Noussair Mazraoui | MOR | CAN | 4400 | 5.14 | 12 | 14.75 |
| He has been better on FanDuel to this point but I think he could get forward and pick up some points on DraftKings as well. This should be a good matchup for him on both ends. | ||||||
| David Raum | GER | CRC | 5800 | 11.85 | 12 | 16.60 |
| Raum is significantly cheaper than the other top defenders on DraftKings but I don't believe he should be. His average was lower after the draw with Spain but we shouldn't hold that against him. This matchup is much better and there is no reason to believe Raum won't take advantage. | ||||||
| Ko Itakura | JPN | ESP | 2900 | 5.84 | 13 | 18.00 |
| He had at least four clearances in both games, and Spain is a much better offensive team than Germany. Itakura should be safe and he has a chance to significantly outperform his price. | ||||||
2022 World Cup DFS Soccer Core Plays
| Draftkings Core Plays | ||
| Top Tier | Ferran Torres | $8,500 |
| Leroy Sane | $8,400 | |
| Mid Tier | David Raum | $5,800 |
| Luka Modric | $7,600 | |
| Value Tier | Jewison Bennette | $4,200 |
| Yuki Soma | $3,700 | |
| Fanduel Core Plays | ||
| Top Tier | Leroy Sane | $18 |
| Ferran Torres | $20 | |
| Mid Tier | Hakim Ziyech | $16 |
| Alphonso Davies | $16 | |
| Value Tier | Juan Pablo Vargas | $8 |
| Junior Hoilett | $11 | |
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