Saturday’s EPL DFS Slate has to be the most evenly matched slate of the season. Fulham is the biggest favorite on the slate at -165, which is remarkable considering they are tied for the fewest goals in the league, and they have the fifth-worst goal differential. That being said, it is not as if I think one of the other teams should be a bigger favorite. Manchester United is -140 but they have a worse goal differential than their opponents, Brentford. Chelsea has just a +1 goal differential and is on the road. Everton is a slight favorite despite having just one more point than Bournemouth. Crystal Palace may actually be the best bet on the slate to win outright, and they are +125 against Nottingham Forest. With so many close matchups, there are very few obvious top-tier plays. Its not a bad idea in these situations to pay up for safe players regardless of matchup, since there should be plenty of viable options with whatever salary we have remaining.
I don't think this is a great slate for paying up for keepers, which is why the next two names are even cheaper than Johnstone. All three of Nottingham Forest's losses have come on the road, as has their only clean sheet. No keeper has more clean sheets than Johnstone, and only three have allowed fewer goals. Forest looks good up front but I'm willing to bet against them on the road given their struggles for the past 14 months.
Sheffield has allowed the most goals in the league, though 42 percent of those goals came in one loss to Newcastle. Fulham is tied for the fewest goals scored, and I'll gladly bet on the matchup at this price.
I think Bournemouth is better defensively than Sheffield, especially when you consider their respective schedules. Everton has arguably been even better for opposing goalkeepers than Fulham. Everton has scored one more goal but they have also allowed one more clean sheet and 13 more saves than Fulham. If you don't trust Sheffield or just have some extra money to spend, Bournemouth could be just as good of a value.
Once again, I don't think I'll pay this much for a keeper, but Chelsea's problems have not been on the defensive end Only Manchester City has allowed fewer goals and no team has kept more clean sheets. Only three teams have scored fewer goals than Burnley, with Lyle Foster accounting for half of them. If Chelsea can keep Foster in check, Chelsea has an excellent chance at a win and a clean sheet.
Beto played just 30 minutes off the bench last week but still managed to take four shots and create one chance. He is too cheap if he starts.
Solanke is by far Bournemouth's best attacker. He leads the team in shots, goals and shots on target. His xG is nearly double any of his teammates'. He is tied for the team lead in chances created and he is on penalty kicks. He is not cheap on FanDuel, though I think his ownership may be low. I love his price on DraftKings.
Mateta is averaging 2.08 chances created per 90 minutes, second on the team only to Eberechi Eze. Feel free to pivot to Jordan Ayew if you have extra money to spend but I think Mateta has the best chance of replacing Eze's on-ball creation.
Ameen Al Dakhil is probably the worst defender in the entire league, and I don't see how Burnley is going to stop anyone so long as he is starting. Nicolas Jackson may be best-positioned to take advantage of Al Dakhil, but Mudryk is cheaper and safer. If Mudryk doesn't start, we can pivot to Enzo Fernandez or Cole Palmer.
Brownhill has at least 9.3 DK fantasy points in four of his five games this season; the only exception as at Newcastle. His spot on free kicks gives him a high floor, and he's pretty cheap for someone with five chances created in this last three games.
McNeil started slow after missing the first two games with an ankle injury, but he has 15 crosses, three chances created, six shots and an assist in his last two games. He is arguably the safest player on the DK slate and he is too cheap on FanDuel.
Only four teams have taken fewer corner kicks than Bournemouth, but I think that changes now that they have a better matchup. Cook leads Bournemouth in corners taken and while he doesn't do much else, we don't need him to at this price.
I don't like the matchup, but especially on DraftKings, I'm not sure it matters. Fernandes is super safe and easily affordable with all of the savings elsewhere on the slate.