It is rare to have a larger EPL DFS slate on Sunday than on Saturday, but that is how the schedule shook out this week. With four or five games depending on your site of choice, there are many opportunities to mix and match your lineups. In researching Sunday’s slate, I found a lot of value games where I seem to disagree with the oddsmakers. For instance, I’m not sure Brighton should be -380 against anyone with all of the injuries they have suffered, especially on the back line.
Similarly, I think Chelsea is overrated against Manchester City, even at home. Aston Villa and West Ham look like solid values as well, especially compared to Liverpool at -255 against Brentford. All of these opinions will shape my DFS lineups, as there could be plenty of fantasy value if Sheffield is competitive with Brighton or Manchester City blows out Chelsea.
EPL DFS Soccer Picks November 12
Goalkeepers
Player
Team
Opp.
DK $
DK FPPG
FD $
FD FPPG
Ederson
MCI
CHE
11
9.75
I think Chelsea is remarkably overrated. They had a nice draw against Arsenal but they were outplayed by Tottenham last week until Spurs went down to nine men. I think Liverpool's matchup is at least as difficult as Manchester City's, and I'm not paying up for a Brighton side still searching for its first clean sheet. My only regret is that I can't play Ederson on DraftKings.
Emiliano Martinez
AVL
FUL
5400
6.47
12
7.95
Fulham is tied with Sheffield United for the second-fewest goals scored in the league, but Fulham has allowed one more clean sheet. Aston Villa has allowed four fewer goals than Brighton, won two more games and kept two more clean sheets. You could talk me into Jason Steele if you had extra salary and nowhere else to spend it, but Martinez is pretty clearly the better value Sunday.
Alphonse Areola
WHU
NFO
5100
6.64
11
7.91
I don't like recommending three keepers who essentially cost the same, but these are pretty clearly the three best values on the slate. Only Sheffield United has scored fewer goals or lost more games on the road than Nottingham Forest. Ederson and Martinez may be better bets to win but Areola may have a better shot at a clean sheet. I suspect his ownership will be lower as well.
Forwards
Player
Team
Opp.
DK $
DK FPPG
FD $
FD FPPG
Jeremy Doku
MCI
CHE
22
23.56
Is it possible Doku is actually underpriced? He has averaged 29 fantasy points over his six starts. Julian Alvarez has come back down to earth since Doku has entered the lineup, and given the inconsistencies of Erling Haaland, Phil Foden and Bernardo Silva, Doku seems like the obvious first choice on this team.
Diogo Jota
LIV
BRE
7300
7.57
17
13.89
Jota has started three straight games, averging 11.0 DK fantasy points in that span. He is one of the safest forwards on the DK slate and he won't break the bank. If he doesn't start, I'll probably just pivot to Luis Diaz.
Cameron Archer
SHU
BHA
4600
5.56
14
10.00
I think I'm probably just paying up for forwards and going cheap elsewhere, but if you don't want to follow that strategy, Archer is really the only value forward I like. He has six shots (three on target), one goal and two chances created in his last two starts. That is awesome for his price, and I like the matchup agianst a injury-depleted Brighton side.
Jarrod Bowen
WHU
NFO
9200
15.84
20
26.05
Bowen is as safe as they come on the DK slate, though that may be damning with faint praise. I would probably be fading him on the road up at home against Nottingham Forest, we're getting a good price on both sites.
Pascal Gross
BHA
SHU
8300
13.14
19
20.33
I might pivot to James Ward-Prowse, but I'm not sure I want to play Bowen and Ward-Prowse together. Also, Gross is the safest way into a Brighton attack that has an outstanding matchup. It certainly doesn't hurt that Gross is a forward on DraftKings.
Midfielders
Player
Team
Opp.
DK $
DK FPPG
FD $
FD FPPG
James McAtee
SHU
BHA
3800
4.82
12
8.32
McAtee is playable on DraftKings, especially if you need to save some money, but he is pretty clearly the best Sheffield attacker on FanDuel. McAtee has seven chances created in his last three games and with all of Brighton's injuries and problems defending, I expect McAtee to create at least a couple chances in this game.
Gustavo Hamer
SHU
BHA
4300
8.49
15
16.32
You could talk me into pivoting to Oliver Norwood or Cameron Archer, but Hamer leads the team in shots, crosses and chances created and he is tied with Norwood for the team lead in goals. Norwood's price is up because he scored the goal last week but is just as safe and comes at a discount.
Kaoru Mitoma
BHA
SHU
6800
11.72
18
18.67
Among the healthy Brighton players, only Pascal Gross has scored more fantasy points than Mitoma. Evan Ferguson is third, averaging 2.9 fewer fantasy points yet costing $700 more. Mitoma is playable on FanDuel but I love him on DraftKings.
Facundo Buonanotte
BHA
SHU
3500
3.71
14
7.33
In 77 minutes across three games, Buonanotte has two shots (one on target), one cross, one chance created and five fouls drawn. I would gladly take that production in this game and with Brighton's injuries and the matchup, that seems quite possible.
John McGinn
AVL
FUL
6700
8.49
14
14.48
McGinn is averaging 11.86 DK fantasy points in his last five games. His place on corners gives him a relatively high floor, but this matchup offers some upside as well.
Defenders
Player
Team
Opp.
DK $
DK FPPG
FD $
FD FPPG
Ethan Pinnock
BRE
LIV
3500
5.68
14
20.48
Nathan Collins is arguably safer, and I'm fine pivoting to him if you need to save a buck. That being said, Pinnock had 17 clearances against Manchester United last month, and Liverpool is the only team to allow more clearances than United. If he comes anywhere close to that kind of production Sunday, Pinnock is too cheap.
Auston Trusty
SHU
BHA
2700
1.99
9
11.73
Since joining the starting lineup, Trusty has averaged 16.3 FD fantasy points in four games. Only four teams have allowed more tackles + interceptions than Brighton, which should allow Trusty to rack up defensive stats yet again.
Murillo
NFO
WHU
3400
4.33
13
20.04
Murillo has at least 18.4 FD fantasy points in four of his five games, including both games on the road. West Ham has not been the best matchup for defensive stats but considering Nottingham Forest's road woes, I like Murillo's chances to return value yet again.
Igor Julio
BHA
SHU
2900
1.68
9
5.30
With all of the injuries along Brighton's back line, Igor has a chance to line up at left back Sunday. I have no idea how much he will get forward, but considering the price and the matchup, I'm willing to take a shot on whoever lines up outside for Brighton.
Harry Toffolo
NFO
WHU
5100
8.77
13
18.88
Toffolo suffered a knock last week and was replaced by Serge Aurier. I would actually like it better if Aurier started, since he is $800 cheaper, but the moral of the story is whoever starts at left back will likely be in my lineups. West Ham has allowed the most crosses in the league and Toffolo has eight crosses in his last three starts, while Aurier has seven in his last three starts.
Player
Team
Opp.
DK $
DK FPPG
FD $
FD FPPG
Joe Gomez
LIV
BRE
4000
4.37
9
10.07
Gomez has 10 crosses in four starts at outside back. He is definitely risky, but at least we don't have to pay much.
Trent Alexander-Arnold
LIV
BRE
6600
10.42
14
15.70
Trent isn't quite as safe as Lucas Digne but he is much cheaper. Trent has double-digit fantasy points in three straight games, and so long as he isn't facing a top-six side, his floor should be pretty high.
