As the 2022-2023 English Premier League season winds down, we’re dealt a healthy amount of Soccer DFS slates over the next couple weekends. With the UEFA Champions League providing some mid-week action, and the FA Cup on the horizon it’s time to cherish the last few EPL DFS slates that we do have. I struggled to find a theme connecting the five games on Saturday’s Premier League DFS slate. Not that we need a theme, of course. Sometimes you just have five individual games that happen to be on the same DFS slate, and there is nothing wrong with that. In fact, if you looked at all of your DFS slates that way, you might be better off. That being said, I think figuring out what kind of slate it is can help me prioritize how I want to spend my salary on my EPL DFS lineups.
It feels like all of these teams are fairly evenly matched, but the numbers don’t bear that out. Nottingham Forest is the worst road team in the league. Southampton is the worst team in the league at home. Both face mid-table teams that should win comfortably. Similarly, fourth-place Manchester United hosts Wolverhampton, who sit in 13th with a -20 goal differential. So why don’t those teams feel safe That’s when I realized the thing that connects these ten teams is that I don’t trust any of them. I don’t trust Manchester United to win at home after losing two straight. The same goes for Aston Villa. I don’t know how anyone can trust Tottenham, even if they righted the ship somewhat against Crystal Palace last season. I don’t even trust the bad teams to be bad. Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth have won two of their last three. Southampton stole a point at Arsenal last month. With so much uncertainty, I am less likely to pay up for anyone, especially keepers. There are a few attackers I trust so I will make an extra effort to play them, confident that I can find mid to low-priced options who will at least get me some fantasy points.
Goalkeepers
Player
Team
Opp.
DK $
DK FPPG
FD $
FD FPPG
Kepa Arrizabalaga
CHE
NFO
5600
8.28
13
12.48
I think Kepa has been overpriced all season. Before they won at Bournemouth last week, Chelsea had lost four straight and was winless in their last seven games. That being said, Nottingham forest has eight goals and 13 losses in 17 road games. Even Chelsea should be able to walk away from this game with a win and a clean sheet.
Emiliano Martinez
AVL
TOT
5100
7.83
10
12.05
These teams are basically even in terms of points and goal difference. Tottenham has righted the ship a bit by going 1-1-1 under Ryan Mason, but I'm certainly not scared of the matchup. I'm also not worried by Aston Villa's consecutive 1-0 road losses. At the end of the day, Aston Villa is at home and Martinez should not be cheaper than Fraser Forster. Martinez probably won't keep a clean sheet but we are getting a pretty good chance at a win for this price.
Neto
BOU
CRY
4200
7.75
9
12.48
This is one of those games that you could talk me into playing either keeper, especially if you can't afford Kepa. The only team that has been shut out more than Bournemouth is Crystal Palace. Palace has been better defensively and they are at home, but I just think the price difference is too great considering how inconsistent Crystal Palace has been offensively.
Forwards
Player
Team
Opp.
DK $
DK FPPG
FD $
FD FPPG
Aleksandar Mitrovic
FUL
SOU
6500
13.1
21
20.25
This is as cheap as Mitrovic has been all season (on DraftKings). Meanwhile, Willian, Harry Wilson and Carlos Vinicius cost more than ever. I admit there is a little risk after Mitrovic missed two months due to suspension but value looks too good to pass up even in cash games.
Dango Ouattara
BOU
CRY
6400
7.82
15
12.36
I was fully prepared to endorse one of Ouattara's teammates and if you need to save some money or you don't need a forward, feel free to pivot. Ouattara has at least 8.1 DK fantasy points in five consecutive starts, and that kind of floor at forward is awfully valuable in this slate.
Harry Kane
TOT
AVL
9200
16.85
22
25.83
I don't trust Tottenham but even when they laid down and got their interim manager fired, Kane was producting for fantasy. He has at least 20 FD fantasy points in eight of his last nine games and you could make an argument he is a better value than Bruno Fernandes.
Midfielders
Player
Team
Opp.
DK $
DK FPPG
FD $
FD FPPG
MykHailo Mudryk
CHE
NFO
5700
4.82
15
5.08
It is surprisingly difficult to find playable Chelsea attackers despite an outstanding matchup at home against Nottingham Forest. Mudryk is by far the safest of the bunch with at least three crosses in four straight games. You can look elsewhere if you're chasing goals but Mudryk's spot on corners gives him a leg up over his teammates.
Stuart Armstrong
SOU
FUL
5500
4.47
13
6.16
Armstrong has long when one of my favorite punt plays on the rare occasions he starts. He isn't quite a punt now after recording a goal and an assist in consecutive starts, but he still offers a lot of upside at a low price.
Harry Wilson
FUL
SOU
7400
4.32
16
5.27
Wilson has averaged 18.9 FD fantasy points in his last five starts. I would probably feel better about him if Mitrovic wasn't returning but they play such different roles, I think Wilson will be fine. More importantly, he is the best way into the Fulham attack if you don't want to pay up for Mitrovic on FanDuel.
Tom Cairney
FUL
SOU
4500
3.11
12
3.63
His two goals against Leicester Monday were probably a fluke but considering it was just his third start of the season, it could be a harbinger of things to come. He has six crosses, five shots and two chances created in three starts and he is reasonably priced on both sites.
Bruno Fernandes
MUN
WOL
9700
14.6
23
22.93
Fernandes has the duel distinctions of being the only safe player on his team and being the only safe top-tier player on the entire slate. You could pivot to Jadon Sancho or Anthony Martial but do you really trust them? And who would you spend your money on?
Midfielders
Team
Opp.
DK $
DK FPPG
FD $
FD FPPG
Eberechi Eze
CRY
BOU
8700
10.25
18
13.78
In an ideal world I would probably play Michael Olise, but Olise costs $600 more on DraftKings, and Eze is forward-eligible. Eze struggled at Tottenham along with most of his teammates but he had seven shots, seven crosses and eight chances created in the two games before that.
Defenders
Player
Team
Opp.
DK $
DK FPPG
FD $
FD FPPG
Trevoh Chalobah
CHE
NFO
3800
3.34
10
7.42
Chalobah has eight crosses, one shot and one chance created in his last two starts. I don't entirely trust him but considering the price and the matchup, I don't really need to.
Pedro Porro
TOT
AVL
6600
13.31
15
17.22
Porro is the safest defender on the DK slate and it isn't particularly close. With so many cheap options in the midfield, it is much easier to pay up for Porro and not even have to worry about one of your defensive spots. Porro has at least 14.6 DK fantasy points in four of his last five games.
Marcos Senesi
BOU
CRY
3000
4
11
13.29
Crystal Palace has allowed the most tackles + interceptions in the league and Senesi has double-digit FD fantasy points in 12 of his last 13 games.
Lewis Hall
CHE
NFO
3500
6.69
8
11.16
In three starts this season, Hall has averaged 8.4 and 13.7 fantasy points on DraftKings and FanDuel, respectively. I wish he was a defender on DraftKings but at least he is cheap on both sites.
