It’s Friday which means another installment of the Fantasy Alarm Player Spotlight Series for shortstops. Today, we are renaming Friday to “Fix-It-Friday” or “Figure-It-Out-Friday” as we try to solve one of the most baffling questions in fantasy baseball in 2022 - where did Xander Bogaerts’ power go? Heading into the 2022 fantasy baseball season many had Bogaerts sitting highly in their fantasy baseball player rankings thanks to his consistent production as one of the most reliable power-providing shortstops in MLB for the last half-decade. But through four weeks we are seeing his home runs crash faster than the May stock market and fantasy managers demand answers. 

Where did the power go and is it coming back? Those are the answers we will look for today. 

 

 

 


You may remember Bogaerts from such hits as four Silver Slugger awards, four top-20 MVP finishes, and three All-Star games. This year, his .359/.410/.511 slash line looks like seasons past but with just two home runs and a .152 ISO (lowest since 2017), a lot of the power has disappeared. 

First, let’s look at Bogaerts’ power profile over the years. 

Season

LD%

GB%

FB%

HR/FB

Hard%

HR

SLG

2013

34.4%

46.9%

18.8%

16.7%

37.5%

1

0.364

2014

20.6%

38.1%

41.3%

7.1%

34.2%

12

0.362

2015

21.3%

52.9%

25.8%

5.3%

27.4%

7

0.421

2016

19.6%

45.5%

34.9%

11.4%

30.6%

21

0.446

2017

20.6%

48.9%

30.5%

7.2%

31.4%

10

0.403

2018

21.2%

43.3%

35.6%

15.5%

37.9%

23

0.522

2019

19.1%

41.2%

39.8%

16.7%

38.8%

33

0.555

2020

17.8%

46.0%

36.2%

18.6%

36.2%

11

0.502

2021

22.7%

40.0%

37.4%

14.6%

35.2%

23

0.493

2022

27.8%

50.0%

22.2%

12.5%

34.7%

2

0.511


What stands out to you about this 2022 season? To me, it’s the massive drop in fly balls and the massive increase in ground balls. I’m not sure if you are aware, but you can’t hit home runs by hitting the ball on the ground. 

Now that we have that clear, let’s turn to why this may be the case this season. 

It could be that Bogaerts’ only has a 100-plate appearance sample size this year or only has 72 batted-ball events from which to draw a conclusion. Truthfully, some of the power data is still noise, but we are getting close to when we can draw conclusions for the season. 

What we are seeing this season is an effort to minimize Bogaerts’ power impact. Opponents know Bogaerts’ tendencies and it’s clear pitchers are approaching him differently this season. 

Why? Look at the difference in how Bogaerts performs against off-speed and breaking pitches compared to fastballs in 2021, according to Baseball Savant. 

YearPitch TypePlate AppearancesLaunch AngleWhiff%
2022Fastballs51715.9
2022Breaking40831
2022Offspeed9-2061.1
2021Fastballs3491614.1
2021Breaking1631031.6
2021Offspeed89333.3


Bogaerts’ swing and miss percentage as well as his launch angle were awful against non-fastballs in 2021. Opposing pitchers have noticed this and have begun to try and take advantage. The 31% and 61% whiff rates on non-fastballs this year is shocking.

According to FanGraphs, Bogaerts has seen fastballs just over 46% of the time this season while he has been fed a steady diet of sliders and curveballs to the tune of almost 40% of his pitches this year. As you can see from the chart above, Bogaerts is swinging and missing at those pitches at an alarming rate this year. 

This pitch mix combined with a career-high 65% first-pitch strike this year is sapping his power after the first month of the season.

What to make of Bogaerts for the rest of 2022?

The good news is all of the other underlying metrics look great for Bogaerts. The walk rate is a little low, but that will likely improve once Trevor Story and Alex Verdugo ahead of him remember how to hit a baseball. The 28% line drive rate is as elite as ever and has actually allowed him to smash eight doubles so far. 

His batting average on balls in play is an unsustainable .443, a full 180 points above league average. Bogaerts’ batting average will eventually fall back into the .285-.295 range we have seen for most of his career. But in this dead-ball offensive environment, that will clearly be in the 90th+ percentile of players.

And of course, the low offensive output by MLB this year due to the baseball is the elephant in the room. Bogaerts has never been a fully-dependent fly ball hitter, only reaching 40% fly balls once in his career. But he has sustained a HR/FB rate of over 14% for four straight years and it’s down around 12% this season.

In the final analysis, I’m not worried about Bogaerts’ power because everything else seems so elite. With the summer months coming and plenty of Fenway Park games ahead (third in offensive park factor this year), I have no doubt he will be back around 20 home runs by season’s end. 

 


Fantasy Baseball 2022

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