As you know I’m a big dynasty guy. I already gave you tips on starting your dynasty leagues and strategies to win in the Fantasy Alarm NFL Draft guide. However, far and away THE most popular dynasty fantasy football articles out there are “sell high” and “buy low” articles. These features are of course helpful, but they are also everywhere and at times they are too obvious or too “scary” because you’re giving up a real high-end player which makes it tough advice to follow. So in this version I’m going to give you a little different flavor of it. Advice that I feel you can be super comfortable acting on immediately. The dynasty “cash out”
Pretty much the opposite of this
The idea here is pretty simple. You are holding an asset that is towards the bottom of the hit rate and viability threshold for starting dynasty rosters. It’s not a “sell high” because this isn’t an asset that everyone is even buying. But, what we are basically telling you, is that you should be aggressively trying to “cash out” this player for anything at all because the fact that they have even have any hype at all actually defies the odds. You’ve actually already won and you might not even know it.
With these guys below, my advice is to take whatever you can get in terms of future draft picks, current viable players, “buy low” players etc., and give yourself better long term odds to succeed. As crazy as it sounds, trading away these guys is actually the risk AVERSE move because draft picks hold their value longer and don’t get vaporized as part of a rebuild like Robert Foster or Preston Williams. The pick holds value until you make it and, assuming you can get a player drafted within the first three rounds of the NFL draft, the player has better odds of success. So let’s look at some guys you should be trying to cash out on right now.
Some people aren’t going to like this one because he’s become a darling of the dynasty community. But let’s take a moment here to actually consider what Gabriel Davis is. He’s a 4th round NFL pick that plays backup wide receiver. “But Coop he scored some fantasy points last year”. Yes, I know he did - filling in for an injured John Brown. Here are some per game stats and percentages for Gabriel Davis in the games where John Brown was healthy vs games where he either got hurt or missed the entire game.
Are you guys seeing what I’m seeing here? When John Brown was healthy, he played an 80-90% snap share out wide opposite Diggs. Gabriel Davis primarily rotated in with Beasley while coming on as the extra slot guy for four wide receiver sets. Then, when John Brown got hurt, Davis moved to the outside as he’s the “next man up”. During that span DAVIS played a 90% snap share. But it’s not like Gabriel Davis took that job and ran with it. When John Brown came back for the playoffs, Brown played a 92.5% snap share in those three games and Gabriel Davis played a 39% snap share. And Davis went back to the slot as well - 68.12% of his playoff snaps were in the slot vs. 31.88% out wide. In the final two games of the playoffs vs. the Ravens and Chiefs, Gabriel Davis got 7 combined targets for zero catches. So much for a tryout.
When the Bills cut John Brown in March it felt like there was a glimmer of hope for Davis. But by the end of the week they had already signed a replacement. The Browns cut John Brown with $1.6 mil in dead cap which saved $7.9 million. Brown then turned around and signed with the Raiders for $3.75 million. The Bills then took that $7.9 million and paid Emmanuel Sanders $6 million ($4.7 cap hit this year). So they cut one outside wide receiver (who could be had for under $4 mil apparently) and signed another outside WR with a combined hit this year from the release and the new deal of $6.2 mil. And, per John Brown’s camp, the day Emmanuel Sanders was released by the Saints the Bills cut John Brown without even talking to him about it then pursued Sanders. Even if it’s a “lateral” move, it seems like the Bills cut their WR that was playing 90% of the snaps to pursue another guy who plays the same role. I mean, hard to be confident in Davis after he caught quite literally none of his passes in the last two playoff games. And that makes it likely that Gabriel Davis is going back to playing the versatile “next man up” role just like Van Jefferson or Zach Pascal. If you don’t believe me, you can ask Bills beat writers.
You might think Zach Pascal is an unfair comparison but they both played the same backup role then came off the bench due to injury last year. And they both scored EXACTLY 136.9 PPR points on a similar ~900 snaps. And here are the athletic profiles for the two players from PlayerProfiler.com. Can you guess which one is Gabriel Davis and which one is Zach Pascal?